As always, making predictions—especially about the future—is a proceed-at-your-own-risk endeavor. Past performance does not guarantee future success. One of the great appeals of sports: its stubborn unwillingness to abide any obvious logic.
That disclaimer out of the way … how do you pick against Novak Djokovic to win the Australian Open? He is the top seed. He won the previous major. And, oh yeah, he has won this event 10 times, including each time he has entered since 2018. (Don’t look now but he has won more Aussie Opens than Serena Williams and Roger Federer have won Wimbledons; only four fewer than Rafael Nadal has won at Roland Garros.)
But there are 127 other players in the draw and 127 matches to be played. And Djokovic was bothered by a wrist injury in his previous match. And he is 36, a crepuscular age for most athletes. And sports are unscripted. So here is a broader picture.
1. Novak Djokovic
Defending champ is ranked No. 1, seeded No. 1, won the previous major and the previous event he entered, and hasn’t lost in Australia in six years. (Chung Hyeon, for the trivia-inclined.) Djokovic still has the inexhaustible appetite for winning. The favorite—and a player competing in a different register—until proven otherwise.
2. Carlos Alcaraz
An opportunity to gauge his status after his fall. He hasn’t won a tournament—large or small—since Wimbledon, less a record-scratch than a deflation. And he chose not to play a tune-up. But his future remains blindingly bright. And in his last four majors he has gone: W/SF/W/SF. Not bad, kid. Shall be interesting to see how he fares without Juan Carlos Ferrero (DNP: knee surgery) in the box for this event.
3. Daniil Medvedev
Former finalist in Melbourne (and at the most recent major) whose hardcourt skills are not up for debate. If can he move in from Tasmania to return serve, it would help. But a lot to like here—especially with a court speed to his liking and moderate temperatures.
4. Jannik Sinner
A player both quiet and loud, if that makes sense. Just when you were prepared to categorize him as a lovely guy perhaps deficient in the cabeza/corazón/cojones combo to win majors, he shines in the fall. Two takedowns of Djokovic, Davis Cup heroics, winning tight matches (a bugbear previously), a career-high ranking … that, friends, is a lot of momentum.
5. Andrey Rublev
The cut-and-paste remains in the drafts folder: “This will sound harsher than intended. But there’s an element of counterfeit here. A top-flight player, week-in, week-out. But has yet to show he has the metal and physical durability to get it done in the best-of-five events.” Has reached the quarterfinals at five of the last six majors (!)… and has never been to a major semi. More charitably, already has a title (Hong Kong) in 2024.
6. Alexander Zverev
Say this about the guy: Eighteen months after suffering the most gruesome on-court injury you’ll ever see (and never unsee), he has played himself back into contender shape. Should he be playing? Perhaps not. But he is. And is a contender, especially on this surface.
7. Stefanos Tsitsipas
Is it overdramatizing to suggest this is a make-or-break season? Won 50-plus matches in 2023 and reached the final in Melbourne. But tailed off at the big events, encountered injuries, found love and now, at age 25, is at a bit of a crossroads. Assortment of injuries, starting with his back, still trouble him. And his coaching situation/paternal propinquity remains an issue.
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8. Holger Rune
Reloading with Boris Becker and Severin Lüthi on the team. Coming off a first-round loss at the U.S. Open. But a solid player who relishes the fight. And this is only his third Australian Open—reminding us to be patient. Could get a workout in R1 against speedy Yoshihito Nishioka.
9. Hubert Hurkacz
Nearing that Rublevian plane—lovely guy; lovely serve; episodically terrific player. Your Shanghai winner in the fall, among the bigger titles of his career. Still unclear he has the stuff of a major winner, as his play in United Cup underscored. On the other hand, mere mention of his name + Australia provides us an opportunity to link this bit of content.
10. Alex de Minaur
A hot pick. First Aussie in the top 10 in more than a decade. Admirable type who plays a lot, wins a lot, comports himself like a consummate pro. Susceptible to power and suffers for the lack of a kill shot. But played well to end 2023 and scored a Week 1 win over Djokovic and distinguishing himself at United Cup (and exhibition win over Alcaraz, fwiw) , puts him in the B-level contender category.
11. Casper Ruud
Think of him more as an overachiever, reaching three majors since 2022, a cold-weather David Ferrer. Last year he lost in the second round of three of the four majors. Look for him to improve on that.
12. Taylor Fritz
The highest-ranked American still seeking his first major semi. Which, perversely, makes his ascent all the more impressive. Wins a lot of matches (54 in 2023). The next step: winning the matches at the most important events.
13. Grigor Dimitrov
A resurgent autumn–and early title last week in Brisbane—sends him back among the top 16 seeds. A game that’s easy on the eyes and some past success in Melbourne. Now north of 32 (gulp), does he have a late-stage career run? The head says, meh; the heart—is there anyone in tennis who does not like this guy?—says yes, enthusiastically.
14. Tommy Paul
A semifinalist in 2023 … and has gone fairly quiet lately (in the manner of the Eagles). A Week 2 threat on athleticism alone. How will he deal with the big points defense?
15. Karen Khachanov
CitiBike Karen. For a veteran with only five titles, he’s had admirable success at the majors, including the semifinal run in Melbourne in 2023.
16. Ben Shelton
A year ago, he was leaving the U.S. for the first time. Now he is a slot from a top-16 seeding. Defending Week Two from 2023. Also coming off a semifinal run at the previous major.
Prefecture of Assorted Seeds 17-32
17. Frances Tiafoe
Mid-2023, he breached the perimeter of the top 10. Then, as if touching an electric fence, retreated. Very quiet autumn. Arrives to Oz with new coach, Diego Moyano, replacing Wayne Ferreira.
18. Nicolás Jarry
Serious potential for a breakthrough by a player at a career-high ranking.
20. Adrian Mannarino
Yo, Adrian. All hail a 35-year-old lefty playing perhaps the best ball of his career finally into the top 20.
25. Lorenzo Musetti
A proud padre—a santopadre, as it were—with a gorgeous one-handed backhand.
27. Felix Auger Aliassime
That 27 next to his name is an awfully big number—it’s like seeing a relative that’s put on weight. Whoa, didn’t recognize you there for a second. Torturing the analogy: (and this may be wishcasting) but this event represents a good chance for a ranking diet.
29. Sebastian Korda
A force last year in Melbourne. So far his career is less about ability or skills—generally unimpeachable—than an ability to remain healthy.
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31. Alexander Bublik
Despite his seeding, he is the epitome of a wild card. Wonderfully entertaining to watch. He happily admits that he is not sure which player will show up, the world beater or the guy who loses in round one.
32. Jiri Lehecka
A revelation of last year’s event. Cooled off a bit since, but still dangerous.
Dark Horse Corral:
- Zhizhen Zhang: Big (six foot four) hitter from China—pronounced CHOY-ner in Aussie—will be seeded at the next major, mark it down.
- Arthur Fils. Luca Van Assche: French teens cannon-balled into the pool in 2023. Now for the sophomore season.
- Andy Murray: Stole Week 1 last year. How much magic is left in the wand (and body)?
- Matteo Arnaldi: He’s ascending fast, he’s only 22 and he’s perhaps the best player you’ve never seen play.
- Stan Wawrinka: All former champs (even those crowding 40) merit mention.
- Jack Draper: Your recent UTS winner is a bit like Korda, Brit edition. Tough time staying healthy but much size, game and professionalism.
- Nick Kyrgios: He won’t play. Of course. But rest assured he’ll do something to make himself heard/seen/relevant.
First Round Matches to Watch:
- Murray v. Tomás Martín Etcheverry: Sir Andy starts against a seed.
- Mannarino v. Wawrinka: Combined age north of 70.
- Tsitsipas v. Berrettini: Would have been a strong and reasonable semifinal match a few years ago.
- Dominic Thiem v. Aliassime: Who needs a win more?
- de Minaur v. Milos Raonic: New top tenner vs. old top fiver.
- Richard Gasquet v. Alcaraz: Alcaraz won’t lose, but an opportunity for Gasquet to play a big court in, likely final trip down under.
- First round upset: Daniel Altmaier def. Khachanov
Predictions:
Doubles winners: Rajeev Ram and Joe Salisbury
Semis: Djokovic def. Sinner; Zverev def. Dimitrov
Finals: Djokovic def. Zverev
Champion: Djokovic
