Beef producers are increasingly confident China could soon lift trade suspensions on some Australian beef processing plants, following an easing of other import restrictions this week.
China has placed tariffs on Australian barley and wine in recent years, and suspended the live lobster trade and coal imports, until this week.
It also blocked imports from eight beef exporters from Queensland, NSW and Victoria, over labelling non-compliance and COVID-19 related issues.
That was between May 2020 and September 2021.
But now the Australian Meat Industry Council (AMIC) CEO Patrick Hutchinson said there were "exceptionally positive" signs business with those companies would soon be reinstated.
"This is not a scenario like barley or wine where there's a huge tariff, this is a government to government process," he said.
"It's not going to be just a click of the fingers but the signs are exceptionally positive that something could happen.
"China is the world biggest bureaucracy... when a decision is made that is purely and simply in the hands of the Chinese, we are ready to go as soon as that occurs."
China ban cost beef co-op millions
Prior to its suspension over labelling non-compliance in May 2020, Australia's largest meat co-operative was sending a third of its product, an estimated 10 shipping containers a week, to China.
The Casino Food Co-op CEO Simon Stahl said losing the China market had cost the business millions of dollars.
"A lot of our service operators, when we lost access to China, left the business and went to other meatworks, and that was at a time when the cattle supply was the tightest it's been in 30 or 40 years," Mr Stahl said.
While it had not received formal notice, Mr Stahl said there was a lot of speculation in the market that China would move to lift the suspensions.
"Particularly plants that have been suspended due to COVID reasons, and that's across the world we're hearing China is considering lifting that ban… so look, it's getting closer, the thaw is certainly happening," he said.
"I think the noise is good... I think federal government's done a terrific job myself, I think the language has been fair and engaging, and I think they've got us back on the table."
CFC's Shanghai office was also hearing "similar murmurings" that China would lift the suspension soon.
"We've even got a customer coming out to see us for the first time since the suspension and since COVID," Mr Stahl said.
"So that just means there's some confidence in the market, [and] I suppose where there's smoke, there's fire."
AMIC's Mr Hutchinson said China was still a very strong market despite the percentage of beef exports to the country dropping from 28 per cent at its peak to 17 per cent.
"It's still our biggest sheepmeat market for lamb and mutton combined, it's also our third biggest beef market and took 172,000 tonnes from Australia — both fresh and frozen — last year," he said.
While the affected plants were able to export product elsewhere, China was still a valuable market.
"The key about China is the opportunity to add value to some products that in some instances, can't attract value elsewhere," he said.
"Certainly having them back in the market always underpins value because it gives choice to our exporters and allows them to create that total carcass value, which then helps stabilise the price paid to producers."
Suspended Qld abattoir hopeful
The family-owned John Dee processing plant in southern Queensland also hoped trade with China resumed in 2023.
The Warwick abattoir was suspended in August 2020 after what it called a "naturally occurring element", chloramphenicol, was found in the meat.
"Even if China comes back it's going to be a gradual process, but it's the flexibility it gives us in our markets that's the most important thing," director John Hart said.
"It's meant that we've had to find other markets, which we've done.
"[But] some customers need all markets and our company needs all markets available for all opportunities."
Federal Minister for Trade Don Farrell has been contacted for comment.
