Australia’s surge in net overseas migration, forecast to be 400,000 in 2022–23, is a catchup from the pandemic and is expected to be temporary, the budget papers reveal.
The forecast for 2024–25 is 260,000, broadly in line with the long-term historical average of 235,000.
The budget papers say: “The pandemic resulted in the first net outflow of overseas migration from Australia since World War II. The rebound in temporary migration following the reopening of Australia’s international borders was initially slow but has recently started to recover at a faster rate.
“This has resulted in an upgrade in the forecast level of population, even though the total number of temporary migrants arriving in Australia is not expected to make up for the loss in migration during the pandemic for some time.
Population growth is now expected to be 2% in 2022–23 and 1.7% in 2023–24, up from the forecast of 1.4% for both years in the October budget.
Most of the increase is attributed to the return of overseas students, skilled temporary visa holders and working holidaymakers.
As well as new students starting their courses, those who were in the second and third years of their study and who were studying online have arrived, boosting the numbers, Treasury says.
The strong economy and changes to temporary visa eligibility have also added to arrivals.
The level of departures – the other side of net migration numbers – will take more time to return to normal because of the low number of arrivals during the pandemic, Treasury says.
The elevated forecast for net overseas migration in 2023–24 of 315,000 is largely driven by fewer temporary migrants departing Australia than usual, rather than a greater number of people arriving, it says.
So what does this mean for Australia’s population forecasts?
Even with this stronger near-term outlook, total net overseas migration is not expected to catch up to the level forecast before the pandemic until 2029–30.
The country’s population is expected to be 750,000 people (2.5%) smaller in June 2031 compared with pre-pandemic forecasts. The decline in the birthrate is accounted for in this figure.
The budget also included further details of the streamlined skilled migration program, which was announced by the home affairs minister, Clare O’Neil, in April.
The government will provide an extra two years of post-study work rights for temporary graduate visa holders with selected degrees, which will improve the pipeline of skilled labour in key sectors, the budget papers say.
As previously announced, the temporary skilled migration income threshold will increase from $53,000 to $70,000 from 1 July 2023 to ensure settings are better targeted towards truly skilled workers.
The budget also allocates $50m over four years from 2023–24 for additional enforcement and compliance activities to protect migrant workers, after unions raised concerns about exploitation.
A range of visa fees will increase above the usual CPI increase, yielding $655m over five years in extra revenue.
Most will increase by 6%, but business, innovation and investment visas will increase by an additional 40% and select visitor and temporary visas will increase by an additional 15 percentage points from 1 July 2023.
Pacific Island visas are not affected.
