Leading epidemiologists have warned it may be a while before there is a substantial drop in Covid-19 cases, as a cocktail of variants continues to fuel Australia’s fourth wave.
While some states recorded a significant jump in cases this week, the wave appears to have slowed in parts of Australia.
Over the past week, 40,695 people were officially diagnosed with the virus across NSW, 501 more than the previous week. The state recorded 74 deaths, up from 48 the week before.
In Victoria, there were 24,652 official infections, down by 3,138, and the state recorded 84 deaths, down from 85.
In Queensland numbers continued to spike. The state recorded 16,600 official cases, a 2,968 increase on the previous week, and 33 deaths, more than double the 15 recorded the previous week.
Although cases have risen slightly in NSW, the chief health officer Kerry Chant said she believed the state had reached its peak.
“While this is good news, we’re still seeing a high number of cases across the state,” she said on Thursday.
“But key indicators like hospital admissions and positive PCR tests are declining, indicating the peak in infections has been reached.”
Catherine Bennett, chair of epidemiology at Deakin University, said while NSW and Victoria may have reached a plateau, a big drop in cases or hospitalisations was not likely.
“The risk is we won’t see the numbers in hospitals drop dramatically,” Bennett said.
“We’re seeing a drop [in some states], it just might not come down completely. We have multiple variants in the community which is a new phase for us.”
The Omicron subvariant BA.5 has been the most dominant strain of the virus but it is being replaced by other strands, such as BQ.1 and XBB, so multiple variants are circulating, she said.
“We are up against the new variants so there is an increased risk of reinfection,” Bennett said.
She said the wetter weather conditions created by La Niña, as well as the social Christmas season, meant infection rates would not decline sharply.
“It looks like we’ve hit the peak at a lower rate in terms of hospitalisations compared to previous waves, but when we come out of this surge is less clear,” she said.
“To reduce the spread people needed to continue to be mindful, especially if they were spending time with the elderly or vulnerable over Christmas, she said.
“We need to be considerate. If you are out and someone is wearing a mask, they are either anxious, so putting one on will help them, [or] they’re vulnerable, and it’s worth using that as a prompt to put one on.
“Or the third reason is they may be out and about with the virus, so you want to wear a mask. In all three situations, it makes sense to put a mask on yourself.”
National figures released last week showed the rise in Covid cases slowing after steep increases in November.
Prof Adrian Esterman, an epidemiologist at the University of South Australia, said a nationwide peak was approaching, but warned the data was only based on reported numbers.
“One of the problems is we don’t have a good handle on how many cases there are,” he said.
“All we have is the reported cases and they’re the tip of the iceberg because most people these days aren’t reporting it.”
Access to free PCR tests will be limited under changes to the national Covid plan announced on Monday.
From 1 January, a referral from a medical practitioner will be needed for patients to receive a free PCR test at locations not run by a state or territory government.
– with AAP
