Australia's growth outlook remains subdued as turmoil in the global banking system adds to the pressures already weighing on advanced economies.
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute leading index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend over the next three to nine months, recorded a modest gain to -0.94 per cent in February from -1.04 per cent in January.
Despite the uptick, the growth rate has been in negative territory for seven months in a row, which points to below-trend growth in the coming months.
Westpac chief economist Bill Evans said the slowdown reflects the lagged effect of the sharp rise in interest rates, the dramatic fall in real wages, a bottoming-out of the savings rate, falling house prices, and now, to a lesser extent, volatility in the global banking system.
"Recent developments in the global banking system are unlikely to significantly impact Australia's financial system but will be a further headwind for the major advanced economies, particularly through a reduction in credit availability and knock to confidence," Mr Evans said.
"This, in turn, will have indirect implications for Australia's growth prospects."
The drop in hours worked, falling commodity prices, a slowdown in US industrial production and softening expectations for unemployment drove the deterioration in the index over the month.
Mr Evans said these falls were slightly offset by improved consumer sentiment and a lift in equity markets, but these gains would likely be short-lived given the recent volatility in global financial markets.
This includes the collapse of regional banks in the US and troubles facing the Swiss bank Credit Suisse.
He said the leading indicator index aligned with Westpac's expectations for one per cent growth in the Australian economy over 2023 and 1.5 per cent in 2024.
On Friday, Westpac updated its cash rate prediction for a pause in April and a final 0.25 percentage point hike in May.
"New information will be available for the May board meeting, particularly around inflation and the staff's revised economic forecasts," Mr Evans said, which would likely indicate the need for another hike.
Fresh national data based on ANZ transactions revealed a decline in spending in the first half of March driven by non-food retail spending.
Spending was down 7.5 per cent year on year through to the week ending March 18, with other discretionary areas, including entertainment and travel, also weakening.
ANZ economists Madeline Dunk and Adelaide Timbrell said the data pointed to a long-awaited slowdown in spending.
"Our base case expectation is for spending momentum to slow through 2023, as households juggle the impacts of rising rates and high inflation," they said.
Household spending patterns have been a source of uncertainty for the Reserve Bank, with interest rates usually taking some time to weigh on household demand.
The RBA has flagged official retail trade data, due next week, as one of four key data sources ahead of the April cash rate decision.
Despite the soft spending data, ANZ economists are predicting another 25 basis point hike next month due to strength in the labour market and the business sector.
