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The Guardian - AU
The Guardian - AU
National
Cait Kelly and Natasha May (earlier)

Treasurer says inflation ‘number one challenge’ – as it happened

Treasurer Jim Chalmers
Treasurer Jim Chalmers addresses media following the RBA decision to lift the offical cash rate by 25 basis points. Photograph: Dan Himbrechts/AAP

What we learned, Tuesday 1 November

And with that, we are going to put the blog to bed. Before we go, let’s recap today’s big stories:

Thank you for spending part of your day with us, we will be back tomorrow to do it all again.

Updated

The inquiry heard on Tuesday that Jones had met with several colleagues from within the Department of Social Services to discuss the DHS plan.

In an October 2014 email summary of a meeting, Jones and his colleagues agreed the proposal did not “accord” with the legislation and they could “not see how such [debt] decisions could be defended in a tribunal or court”.

Jones told the royal commission he provided the damning legal and policy advice to Andrew Whitecross, who the inquiry heard was then acting group manager of social security policy at DSS.

It is unclear who else outside the team in which Jones was part of had seen the legal or policy advice. DSS lawyer Anne Pulford, who was involved in drafting the legal advice, will give evidence on Wednesday.

Despite the misgivings with the Department of Social Services in late 2014, costings spruiking the financial benefits of the plan were worked up earlier the following year.

Jones said he did not know why these were created given the damning and legal policy advice held by DSS.

Asked by the royal commissioner Catherine Holmes why he did not say anything to his superiors at DSS when it was clear the flawed proposal was going ahead, Jones said he was “quite way down the chain”.

He said:

It’s not my role to raise [with superiors] a policy issue that’s being pursued by another department. It was a proposal being put … together by the Department of Human Services. And I don’t know their full justifications for pursuing it. I can indicate that I think it delivered savings … at a time we were trying to develop savings with the new government.

The inquiry continues.

2/2

Royal commission hears some staff believed robodebt plan could not be ‘defended in tribunal or court’

Some staff at the Department of Social Services believed the proposal for what became the robodebt scheme could not be “defended in tribunal or court” and could deny welfare recipients “natural justice”, according to an email aired at the royal commission.

The inquiry, which has been mired in legal argument over the release of documents, late on Tuesday heard evidence from Mark Jones, who was an official at the Department of Social Services.

Jones worked in the payment review and debt strategy team at the Department of Social Services until May 2015, shortly before the robodebt scheme was implemented.

The royal commission heard the proposal for the robodebt scheme came from the Department of Human Services (DHS), which was then responsible for Centrelink, and was the junior department under the Department of Social Services.

It heard the proposal was met with opposition from junior and mid-level officials within Department of Social Services, including Jones.

He had been asked by his superiors to obtain legal and policy advice from within the Department of Social Services following the DHS proposal.

That advice, the royal commission heard on Monday, cast serious doubt on the legality of the robodebt proposal.

1/2

Updated

Consumer confidence in decline as interest rates rise

From AAP:

An unexpected surge in inflation is weighing heavily on consumers and pushing confidence towards pandemic lows.

The Reserve Bank’s delivery of a 25 basis point rate hike for November, taking the cash rate to a nine-year high of 2.85%, will likely weaken consumer confidence further.

Consumer confidence has fallen for a fifth week in a row to levels last seen during the early Covid-19 lockdowns.

The 1.5% decline in the weekly ANZ/Roy Morgan index followed the September quarter consumer price index print that surpassed expectations to hit 7.3% annually.

The surprisingly high inflation figure pushed the “weekly inflation expectations” subindex up 6.6%.

Other subindices of the confidence gauge were mixed, with “time to buy a major household item” climbing 2.7% after three weeks of declines.

‘Current financial conditions’ fell 2.9% and ‘future financial conditions’ slid 4.2%.

ANZ economist David Plank said expectations of future rate rises were reflected in the 15.6% decline in confidence among people paying off a mortgage.

“Cost of living concerns, along with expectations of more rate hikes by the RBA, have caused confidence to decline to levels last seen during the early weeks of the Covid lockdowns,” he said.

Woman carrying shopping bags
Consumer confidence has fallen for a fifth week in a row. Photograph: James Worsfold/AAP

Updated

We have a bit more from AAP on the latest flood warnings for NSW

Evacuations have been ordered and a series of road and bridge closures are also likely.

In Adelong, the main street is under water and residents in adjoining streets have been ordered to leave.

An evacuation order has also been issued for Tumut caravan park on the Tumut River amid rapidly rising waters and the threat of flash flooding.

Cowra caravan park on the Lachlan River is also under evacuation orders.

Major flooding is again likely along the Castlereagh, Gwydir, Namoi and Macquarie rivers after recent rain.

The BoM also expects major flooding on the Bogan River.

There are 90 SES hazard warnings current for NSW.

They include evacuation orders for residents along the Murray River at Willow Bend, Moama and Mathoura.

After some sunshine to round off October, the state faces another rainy month as temperatures drop, the BoM says.

Showers and thunderstorms were forecast across most areas on Tuesday, with creeks and rivers likely to rise rapidly as rain falls on already saturated or flooded catchments.

The cold front sweeping Australia’s southeast will bring chilly temperatures, showers and alpine snow until midweek - all of which are unseasonal for November.

Above-median rainfall is forecast for most of eastern Australia over the next two weeks, increasing to very likely (more than 80% chance) for the northeast and far southeastern mainland.

Updated

Lock The Gate warning famers after NSW approves seismic surveys on Liverpool Plains

Lock The Gate has released a statement warning farmers and koalas will suffer after the NSW Perrottet Government’s decision to grant oil and gas giant Santos approval to conduct seismic surveys on the Liverpool Plains.

The government granted the approval, which will allow Santos to search for coal seam gas using “thumper tractors” today in an area located southwest of Gunnedah.

The area is home to a colony of koalas and University of NSW scientists recently raised concerns that the vibrations caused during the exploration process could negatively affect research underway on the efficacy of vaccines used to treat chlamydia in the endangered animals.

Mullaley Gas and Pipeline Accord spokesperson Margaret Fleck said the government’s decision showed it was paving the way for Santos to drill across the world renowned foodbowl of the Liverpool Plains:

Santos was never going to stop with 850 gaswells in the Pilliga - the very nature of the coal seam gas beast is that these companies need to drill thousands of wells in order to make a it worthwhile - just look at the pockmarked farmland of inland Queensland.

Meanwhile, farms sink due to CSG induced subsidence, groundwater is drained and placed at risk of contamination, and both people and animals like the koala suffer due to the industry’s greed.

We will face problems even at this early stage of exploration. Seismic testing is a disruptive process that involves ongoing vibration that will be felt in the homes of people who live along the route.

This approval is of course disappointing, but the Perrottet Government has clearly underestimated farmers in this part of the world.

We fought off Shenhua, we have fought off gas companies before, and we have no plans to roll over and let Santos trash the food and fibre powerhouse of the Liverpool Plains. We stopped Santos in their tracks just over a decade ago and we are determined to do it again.

A koala in a tree
Lock The Gate says seismic surveys will affect the koala population on the Liverpool Plains of NSW. Photograph: Weili Li/Getty Images

Updated

NSW emergency services searching for two men missing in floodwaters, more rain forecast

From AAP:

The search continues for two men missing in NSW floodwaters, evacuations are again at play in a series of communities in the state’s south and yet more rain is on the way.

The pair are thought to have been riding in the back of a utility swept off the road while being driven across a flooded causeway near the South West Slopes town of Boorowa on Monday night.

Police say two others in the cab were able to free themselves and get to safety.

The search was briefly paused in the early hours of Tuesday morning but was ongoing in the afternoon.

Further west where Muttama Creek divides the Riverina centre of Cootamundra, residents have been directed to emergency accommodation at the local showgrounds, with dangerous flash flooding a concern.

Local member and NSW emergency services minister, Steph Cooke, told the ABC the order was for 10 streets and about 100 homes.

“The weather event we saw come through from late yesterday afternoon and overnight has really caused some substantial damage and wreaked havoc right across the region,” she said.

“It’s a long time since we’ve seen flooding hit the town in the way that it did last night and so people were having to work closely with the SES.”

The Murrumbidgee River at nearby Gundagai exceeded major flood levels (8.5m) on Tuesday afternoon, rising more than 2.5m in 24 hours.

The Bureau of Meteorology warns it could be the area’s worst flood since 1989.

Updated

Australian survivor of Seoul crowd blames loss of 151 lives on officials’ failure to control crowd

From the Associated Press:

An Australian survivor of a crowd crush that killed more than 150 partygoers in the South Korean capital of Seoul blamed the huge loss of life on officials’ failure to employ effective crowd controls despite anticipating a massive turnout for the Halloween celebrations.

Nathan Taverniti, 24, said he’s still grappling with shock after one of his friends, Grace Rached, died during the tragedy on Saturday in the nightlife district of Itaewon.

Stuck in a huge crowd, Taverniti said he didn’t sense that something terrible would happen until some women near him apparently slipped and fell down, and people nearby tried to help them back up. By that time, he could no longer see where his three friends were.

“All of a sudden more people started falling there were just too many people,” he said.

He said he thought he saw some of his friends’ hands among the people who were piling up. He tried to grab them, but had to let go after being crushed by the enormous weight of other people who were losing balance. He said he heard “lots of people screaming”.

Taverniti said he shouted to the bars and clubs to open their doors to let some people in to ease the crowd, but that nobody listened. He said several police officers arrived about half an hour later and people in the crowd helped pull out those who were injured before more officers arrived later.

He later found one of his friends among the rows of unconscious bodies laid out in the pavement.

“I believe 100% that this incident is a result of the government’s mismanagement and the lack of ability because I have known that Halloween event has always been this big in Itaewon,” he said. “This year there was clearly not enough police presence.”

South Korean president Yoon Suk-yeol and cabinet members bow in front of a footpath covered in flowers
South Korean president Yoon Suk-yeol and cabinet members pay tribute to the victims of the Halloween crowd crush in Seoul, South Korea. Photograph: Chung Sung-Jun/Getty Images

Updated

Queensland dugong survey starts

James Cook University scientists are in the air this week kicking off a critical Queensland-wide dugong population survey – counting dugongs along 2000 kilometres of coastline in under two months.

Like a census, the surveys are conducted over an intense period every five years to get a snapshot of dugongs and calves’ populations, from Cape York to Moreton Bay.

JCU TropWATER’s Chris Cleguer said Australia is home to the largest dugong population in the world, and the surveys are critical for monitoring trends in abundance and distribution:

These aerial surveys have been conducted for more than 30 years and are essential in not only estimating the current dugong population size but also mapping where dugongs are more or less abundant.

There are concerns about the decline in dugongs across the urban coast of the Great Barrier Reef – this year’s surveys will give us the opportunity to understand the extent of this.

Hervey Bay to the south of the Great Barrier Reef, a known hot spot for dugongs, is an area of concern following a major loss of seagrass habitat earlier this year. The seagrass loss resulted from two flood events, which smothered the seagrass and destroyed the dugongs’ main food source, Cleguer said.

The surveys will help us to determine how many dugongs currently are in Hervey Bay and the Great Sandy Strait as well as understanding their large-scale movements.

It is possible the dugongs have moved in search of seagrass to other nearby key habitats such as Gladstone to the north or Moreton Bay to the south.

dugong
A dugong swiming in Moreton Bay. Photograph: REUTERS

Updated

Employer group calls on Tony Burke to exempt some firms from multi-employer pay deals

The Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive, Andrew McKellar, has met the workplace relations minister Tony Burke today, putting employers’ case that small and medium-sized businesses should be exempted from some of the changes expanding multi-employer pay deals.

The bill contains two streams of multi-employer bargaining:

  • The “supported” stream for workers in sectors such as community services, cleaning, and early childhood education, from which small businesses are not exempted; and

  • The “single-interest” stream, which does include a safeguard that small businesses cannot be compelled to bargain together without their consent, even if their employees vote for it.

McKellar told Guardian Australia that ACCI “put forward an argument that the threshold for small business should be much higher than 15 employees”. If ACCI had its way small and medium-sized businesses could opt out of the single-interest stream, meaning businesses with up to 200 employees.

McKellar said employers “don’t have a problem with the supported stream”, formerly known as the low paid bargaining stream. But they are “not comfortable” and believe the single-interest stream “goes too far” and opens a “can of worms” with “no clear boundary”. McKellar nominated sectors like retail, manufacturing and transport as those that could be affected.

ACCI also wants the test for whether a majority of employees support bargaining together in the single-interest stream to require “majority support in all businesses that would be involved in any agreement not just an overall majority”.

When employers’ enterprise agreements expire, they should have a “period of grace” to negotiate a new deal before being included in multi-employer bargaining, McKellar said.

McKellar said that David Pocock’s proposal to split the bill “is a sensible one” because it “would allow the government to secure the key measures that it wants” this year, and save debate on more controversial measures for next year.

But Burke isn’t a fan. He told ABC TV:

The problem there is a contentious [area], multi-employer bargaining, is a measure that precisely will get wages moving, and if you look at the areas of the economy that had been crying out for this the most it is areas like childcare, cleaning, areas like aged care, we are talking about those feminised sections of the economy, not especially militant, not areas of the economy that have done well out of bargaining over the last decade, they are the ones that have been crying out for multi-employer bargaining.

Andrew McKellar
Chief executive of the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Andrew McKellar. Photograph: Lukas Coch/AAP

Updated

The Victorian election campaign even stops, sort of.

Support for for national First Nations arts and culture body

Fake art, cultural appropriation, and the need to protect the intellectual property of art are among the reasons Australia needs a national First Nations arts and culture body, a report has found.

The Australia Council released the report, Bringing it forward, at the Purrumpa conference in Adelaide this morning.

A national body could help with intellectual property issues for First Nations artists, including ways to fight back against imitators, such as a trademark.

Those consulted had some concerns about how a national body would work, such as potential duplication of services, and how power and authority would be used, but the report found overall there was “substantial agreement” that such a body was needed. It found:

Many participants spoke of the national body as an agile ‘facilitator’, ‘coordinator’, ‘connector’ or ‘go to’ referral agency which could work both ways: acting as portal to First Nations arts and culture for industry and government; and helping First Nations artists to navigate existing networks and services and have their voices heard nationally.

The proposed First Nations owned, led and run national body has the working title of the National Indigenous Arts and Cultural Authority (Niaca).

A woman looks at Indigenous-made vases in a gallery
The Fourth National Indigenous Art Triennial at the National Gallery of Australia in Canberra in March. Photograph: Xinhua/REX/Shutterstock

Updated

Jones says energy policy will reflect country’s needs

Stephen Jones would not say whether we could expect an announcement on energy policy next week when parliament resumes.

The assistant treasurer said:

This is going to be determined … by the needs of Australian households and businesses, not the politics of parliament next week. You can be guarantee that the sooner we get these things knocked into shape, we’ll be wanting to go out to the Australian people, because they deserve certainty. So do the businesses, by the way, and the energy generators that are trying to lock in gas contracts at the moment. It is in the interests of everybody that we get this right … that we get this done as soon as possible.

Stephen Jones
Stephen Jones: Australians ‘deserve certainty’. Photograph: Mick Tsikas/AAP

Updated

Assistant treasurer swipes at Angus Taylor

The assistant treasurer, Stephen Jones, is up next on ABC Afternoon Briefing and takes aim at the claim from the shadow treasurer, Angus Taylor, that the Labor government doesn’t have a plan to address the cost of living crisis.

When asked whether households are currently having to bear the burden through the interest rate increase and other cost increases, Jones said:

Can I put it to you like this: in budgets we have two choices. We can bring a meltdown on Australian households by cutting all the services and the expenditure – should we [start] with healthcare or medicine? Start with aged care, childcare? Where would the opposition or others like us to start?

Or we could have a gentle part to ensure that over time we are bringing inflation down, not adding to the pressure; keeping a lid on spending, which is exactly what we have done. If Angus thinks we should be going further, he should say exactly how, because two days ago his boss stood up and gave the big tick to all the initiatives we have had in our budget.

Updated

Mixed reaction to RBA rate rise

Post 2 of 2

The ANZ, too, has retained its “terminal” RBA rate forecast at 3.85% after today’s hike.

David Plank, ANZ’s head of Australian economics, said:

The RBA’s updated forecasts have inflation above the top of its target band [of 2%-3%] for more than three full years, i.e. beyond the end of 2024. This must pose some risk to medium-term inflation expectations, and the possibility that they become unanchored.

We’ll get to see more of the RBA’s thinking, including its precise forecast for how high inflation will go when it releases its quarterly statement on monetary policy on Friday.

Analysts will be on alert to see how the updated forecasts compare with those supplied in the federal budget released by treasurer Jim Chalmers just a week ago.

The latter had CPI peaking at 7.75% and today Lowe has it reaching “around 8%”.

Given the government has dispensed with the traditional December release of a “mid-year economic and fiscal outlook” because of its budget “re-do”, we probably won’t see government adjustments until its next budget in May. (Unless, of course, the news is really good, such as higher revenue from elevated commodity prices.)

More of the story is told here:

Updated

Tony Burke says he doesn’t want jobs bill delayed

The employment minister, Tony Burke, is speaking on ABC’s Afternoon Briefing about the Guardian Australia report from late last week suggesting the Senate crossbench wanted more time to examine the secure jobs, better pay bill.

Crossbench members wanted a Senate committee deadline extended into early next year from mid-November this year, but was rebuffed by the government.

Burke said he was keen to provide whatever assistance possible to senators on the detail, but says he didn’t want to delay:

So for the senators that are quite reasonably saying they want to make sure they can get across the detail, I want to provide whatever assistance we can, and helping them get across the detail. But certainly, I don’t want for the families and households who are saying, wages aren’t keeping up, I don’t want to be in a world where we are awaiting a day longer than we have to in getting wages moving in Australia.

He said it was not his starting point in negotiating with the crossbench to split the bill into different parts. He also said he wasn’t going to be intimidated by a reported $20m ad campaign from employer groups against the bil.

If they think they can simply buy advertising space and we will suddenly turn a blind eye to households, with wages not keeping up with standards of living, then they just don’t understand what’s happening around every kitchen table in Australia.

Updated

Mixed reaction to RBA’s rate rise

As a sign some punters were betting on a larger rate rise, the Aussie dollar gave up some of its early gains for the day, easing to about US64.25c from 64.4c prior to the RBA news.

Stocks went the other way – also modestly – with the ASX200 benchmark share index cantering to a 1.1% gain for the day. Just before the rate decision landed, it was up just a tad under 1%.

The Greens finance spokesman, Senator Nick McKim, said, however, that the inflation was triggered “by a pandemic, war and climate breakdown, and fuelled by corporate profiteering”. The Albanese government should not be putting up with the series of rate hikes.

McKim said:

The RBA should have stopped rate rises months ago and should not have put them up today. And the government needs to get into the game instead of watching from the sidelines.

McKim, hailing from Tasmania, might be able to address his concerns directly if he attends a dinner speech planned by RBA governor Philip Lowe tonight in Hobart.

Others, such as Brendan Rynne, KPMG’s chief economist, think the RBA is fully aware that there is a time lag between the rise in official interest rates and the hike being passed onto borrowers. (The full effect can be out to two years, Lowe has said.)

Rynne said:

Continuing to rapidly push the cash rate above the neutral rate [of about 2.5%] reduces the likelihood of ensuring the economy is kept on an even keel during a period of contractionary monetary policy.

KPMG has left its forecast for a peak RBA rate of 3.35% unchanged.

Post 1 of 2

Updated

New ABC studio in Parramatta will not cost taxpayers extra, David Anderson says

The ABC will set up a state-of-the-art studio in Parramatta at no extra cost to the taxpayer, ABC managing director David Anderson has told a parliamentary committee.

Anderson told the public works committee:

The decision to establish a new bureau in Parramatta and relocate up to 300 ABC staff from Ultimo to Parramatta was therefore an obvious step for us.

Today we are here to talk about boosting the ABC’s presence and effectiveness in greater western Sydney. With 2.6 million people, greater western Sydney is Australia’s fastest growing region. The ABC has of course always had a western Sydney presence, but the growth of the region and its increasing significance means there is a compelling case to make this even bigger.

The move will be paid for by the recent sale for $88m of an ABC studio in Artarmon.

Anderson said the ABC had hired 60 new journalists in rural and regional towns on the back of commercial agreements with Google and Facebook following the media bargaining code legislation.

The Guardian has reported the ABC received $12m for its news content from the digital platforms.

The ABC logo on its offices in Melbourne
The ABC will relocate up to 300 of its staff from Ultimo to its new bureau in Parramatta, the broadcaster’s managing director says. Photograph: Benjamin Crone/Alamy

Updated

Taylor is asked if households should be offered some means-tested relief – he doesn’t answer but says the Coalition had a great policy geared towards pensioners.

This government could have gone with a full-blown policy that allowed pensioners to do extra work without losing 50 cents in the dollar of their pension. I mean, that helps pensioners and it takes pressure off inflation – it is dealing with the symptom and the source of.

Updated

Taylor pans Labor’s approach to gas

Taylor said Labor needed to fix electricity prices by getting more gas out of the ground.

You get there if your policy has failed. You look at Labor on energy and they still can’t bring themselves to say we need to get more gas out from under the ground into the domestic network, because you’ve got an energy minister who doesn’t like the gas industry, has demonised it, has called it BS and fraud.

Reporter: Isn’t that a state issue?

Taylor:

Getting gas out from under the ground is something we always took responsibility for. We worked with the states to do energy deals, New South Wales to get Narrabri opened up. We argued and debated and fought the Victorian government on their moratorium. We worked closely with state governments who did want to get gas out from under the ground.

We worked on the Beetaloo Basin. There’s a number of initiatives there that Labor slashed in their budget, so you are not going to solve this problem without going to the underlying source, which is not enough supply going into the domestic network.

Rod Sims put it very well just the other day when he said you have got to get more supply into the domestic network that will drive down the price. Labor is failing to do that.

Angus Taylor
Angus Taylor: ‘We worked with the states to do energy deals.’ Photograph: Martin Ollman/Getty Images

Updated

Now we are on to questions. He is asked what actual changes to the policy he would like to see.

Taylor:

We have always had budget balance, that is a part of a fiscal strategy, and it must be part of a fiscal strategy, but there were basic things that we suggested over recent months, like getting more pensioners into the workforce, and they went with a half-baked version of that.

We don’t need a toxic industrial relations culture when we are trying to ensure that we have a strong economy that will take pressure off interest rates and inflation, and yet they are rushing that … through parliament.

Updated

Taylor says Labor’s budget ‘a missed opportunity’

Taylor, the shadow treasurer, says the decision will exacerbate pocket pain for many Australians. He says there is no clear plan in the budget to help:

Interest rate decisions by the Reserve Bank are of course made by the Reserve Bank, as it should be, but they are made within the context of government policy. And a great disappointment for so many Australians is that what we didn’t see from the government last week in the budget is a clear and consistent plan that can take pressure off interest rates. It was a missed opportunity.

The Labor government has put up the white flag when it comes to interest rates and inflation, and Australians will pay the price for that. I stood here now six times in a row since I became shadow treasurer, each time saying what we need from the government is a clear and comprehensive plan to take pressure off interest rates and the nation. And my hope, and I think many Australians’ hope, is that we would see that in the budget. We clearly didn’t – it was a missed opportunity.

Updated

‘This is a challenging time for so many Australians’ – Angus Taylor

Taylor:

This is the seventh increase in a row, and in fact since May. That means for a typical Australian household with a $750,000 mortgage, they will be paying $1,200 a month more than they were paying before.

That is a very significant increase they are paying for their groceries, for other household goods, and for fuel and electricity bills, of course. So this is a challenging time for so many Australians. The Reserve Bank statement was sobering.

It said that they expect inflation to continue to go up, to peak at 8%. That is an increase in what they had previously said, and they expect more interest rate increases to follow beyond today.

Updated

We are now going to Angus Taylor, who is responding to the RBA decision.

Updated

Treasurer says Plibersek did not raise stage-three tax cut concerns with him

The treasurer, Jim Chalmers, has indirectly responded to a Guardian Australia report that the environment minister, Tanya Plibersek, expressed personal opposition to the stage-three tax cuts to a constituent at a public event on Saturday.

Asked if Plibersek had raised any concerns with him about the income tax cuts, Chalmers replied: “On your second question – no.”

Plibersek’s office declined to comment when contacted on Monday, and Plibersek doesn’t appear to have had any public events or commented about it elsewhere today.

Updated

Winning jockey says he feels ‘like crying’ as Gold Trip takes Cup

Gold Trip made light of inclement weather and an early-morning attempt to sabotage the track to win the 162nd running of the Melbourne Cup, as unrestricted crowds returned to Flemington Racecoursr for the first time in three years.

Emissary came in second, with High Emocean coming from last place to claim third.

After just 10,000 spectators were allowed in a year ago due to Covid-19 restrictions – and none at all during the Victorian lockdown in 2020 – a sizeable but soggy crowd watched as Gold Trip, trained by Ciaron Maher and David Eustace, galloped to victory over the 3,200m course.

Asked to try and put his feelings into words, winning jockey Mark Zahra said:

I can’t. I feel like crying. It’s unbelievable. What a day.

Torrential rain that fell on Melbourne earlier in the day cleared in time for the marquee event, but come the 3pm jump the track was hardly dry.

A section of it near the 1,500m mark has also sustained damage in the early hours of Tuesday morning when protesters poured an unknown fluid onto the surface.

The track was cleaned and repaired before being deemed fit to race on. Police say they are investigating the incident.

The field for the $7.75m race had been reduced to 22 starters after Lunar Flare – the offspring of 2013 Cup winner Fiorente – failed a veterinary examination and joined Point Nepean as a late scratching.

Mark Zahra rides Gold Trip to victory
Mark Zahra rides Gold Trip to victory. Photograph: Asanka Brendon Ratnayake/AP

Updated

And the Cup top three:

1. Gold Trip

2. Emissary

3. High Emocean

Gold Trip wins Melbourne Cup

Gold Trip is victorious at this year’s Melbourne Cup.

Wages, companies’ pricing behaviour key to how far RBA moves

Australia was the first major nation to reduce the pace of interest rate rises in October when the Reserve Bank went with a 25bp hike after four 50bp rises in a row. And, of course, they’ve stuck to this moderate course this month. (The US Fed is expected to go again with a 75bp rise this week.)

What might tilt the bank to go harder again? Well, despite more than a year of wages increasing at a slower pace than inflation, this aspect of the economy is clearly in the RBA’s sights, as is the behaviour of companies in jacking up prices.

Governor Philip Lowe said:

Wages growth is continuing to pick up from the low rates of recent years, although it remains lower than in many other advanced economies.

A further pick-up is expected due to the tight labour market and higher inflation.

(The jobless rate remains at near half-century lows of 3.5%.)

Lowe said:

Given the importance of avoiding a prices-wages spiral, the board will continue to pay close attention to both the evolution of labour costs and the price-setting behaviour of firms in the period ahead.

Philip Lowe
Philip Lowe, the RBA governor. Photograph: Mark Baker/AP

Updated

RBA’s rate increases match previous record

With today’s back-to-back quarter point increases in the cash rate, the Reserve Bank signalled that it wasn’t overly spooked by the September quarter CPI said.

The lift to 2.85% comes just over six months after the RBA started hiking during the federal election campaign, when the cash rate was at a record low of 0.1%. (Seems like a long time ago.)

That 275 basis point increase now matches the previous record spate of rate rises during five meetings in the second half of 1994.

What’s clear, though, is the RBA isn’t done, particularly as inflation still hasn’t stopped its ascent.

Philip Lowe, the RBA governor, said:

A further increase in inflation is expected over the months ahead, with inflation now forecast to peak at around 8% later this year. Medium-term inflation expectations remain well anchored, and it is important that this remains the case.

Here’s what it means for borrowers:

More to follow

Updated

Inflation is ‘No 1 focus of the government’ – Chalmers

The message Chalmers is delivering is clear: everything will get more expensive before it gets less.

Higher inflation and higher interest rates coming with it means that the pressure is coming on Australians from around the world, that it’s felt around the kitchen table. That’s precisely why we took difficult decisions in the budget, showed spending restraint, put a premium on what’s responsible and affordable and sustainable.

As today’s decision has shown, inflation is the No 1 challenge in our economy. It’s the No 1 focus of the government. It’s the No 1 focus when it comes to the budget that we handed down last week.

Jim Chalmers
Jim Chalmers: financial pressure is being felt ‘around the kitchen table’. Photograph: Lukas Coch/AAP

Updated

Inflationary pressures ‘will get a little bit worse before they get better’

Chalmers says this is why the budget focuses on bringing inflation down:

It’s more important than ever that the budget is responsible, restrained and right for the times. And that’s what our budget is. We knew when we put the budget together that inflation was high and rising, and that was bringing with it higher interest rates.

And that was putting additional pressure on Australians with a mortgage. This is precisely why the budget was designed – for dealing with these inflationary pressures, which will get a little bit worse before they get better, but they will get better in time.

Updated

Inflation is economy’s ‘biggest challenge’ – Treasurer

Chalmers says the RBA expects inflation to peak at 8% towards the end of the year.

The Treasury’s expectation is more like 7.75%, but they have always said that the risks when it comes to inflation are on the upside, given what’s happening in energy markets as a consequence of the war in Ukraine and given the upward pressure on grocery prices brought about by flooding of some of the prime farmland in eastern Australia, in particular. This is exactly why inflation is the biggest challenge in our economy.

Updated

Treasurer on interest rate rise

Treasurer Jim Chalmers is talking now:

This is another difficult day for Australians, who are already under the pump. This means Australians with a mortgage will have to find that little bit extra in their monthly budget to accommodate these interest rate rises. This is about another $50 a month on an average outstanding balance of $330,000. It’s about an extra $75 a month for a $500,000 mortgage.

Updated

RBA lifts cash rate by 25 basis points to 2.85%

Australia’s interest rates have risen for a record seventh time in as many months, with the Reserve Bank hiking its key rate by 25 basis points to 2.85%

Economists had mostly expected a quarter-point increase after the September quarter consumer price index rose more than expected to 7.3%, a 32-year high.

More to follow

Updated

Dutton targets Labor on cost of living

In contrast, opposition leader Peter Dutton has also been running paid ads on cost of living, spending up to $400 to boost posts about rising household expenses and pouring scorn on Labor’s economic record.

On 29 October the Liberal leader paid to boost a post claiming “you are never better off when Labor has its hands on the budget”, and a second one talking about “increasing financial pressures – in your mortgage repayments, insurance premiums, visits to the supermarket, filling-up at the petrol station and especially in your power bills”.

(Don’t forget that the Reserve Bank started lifting official interest rates in May, under the former Coalition government, and that the Labor government has been excoriating the Coalition for delaying a report that power prices were set to rise until after the May election.)

The second ad features a graphic of Dutton giving his budget reply speech, featuring the caption: “You have every right to be anxious and disappointed, the Prime Minister has broken faith with you.”

Dutton is overwhelmingly targeting those Facebook ads at men and older women aged above 55; female voters under that age made up just 14% of the audience for the “never better off” ad, and just 22% of the “increasing financial pressures” ad.

Peter Dutton
Peter Dutton: ‘The prime minister has broken faith with you’. Photograph: Darren England/AAP

Of course it’s not just the party leaders tipping cash into Facebook coffers. Coalition MP Jason Wood paid under $100 to boost an ad calling the budget a “dumpster fire” to around 5,000 people last week, while Labor MP Libby Coker also dropped less than $100 to promote a post saying the government “are going to do fantastic things” to around 2,000 people.

New Liberal MP Zoe McKenzie spent under $200 to boost an ad calling it “a pretty terrible budget” for regional Australia, while Labor senator Karen Grogan reached less than 1,000 people with a $100 ad saying “women are front and centre of Labor’s first budget”.

Post 2 of 2

Updated

What politicians boost on social media

You can often tell a lot about politicians from which posts they pay to boost on social media. While it’s usually not hard to figure out which messages they’re wanting to drive home or which voting demographics they’re trying to activate, the posts they pay to show up more in your news feeds give us even more indication of which messages they think are winners and which voters they’re trying to reach.

For instance, Anthony Albanese has just boosted his very first Facebook ad since winning the top job in May, paying for an ad asking Australians to “follow my page for more updates on how we’re tackling the cost of living.”

The boost, which was supported by less than $100 in paid advertising and ran for only one day on Monday, came just a week after the federal budget – which the federal opposition and some media commentators have criticised for not doing more to help cost of living pressures.

The ad was accompanied by a photo of the prime minister wearing a hard hat on a construction site, with the caption: “In Labor’s first budget we’re building more affordable housing.” It reached less than 4000 people, and Facebook ad library data shows it was targeted slightly more toward middle-aged and older women.

It’s only small money, and the ad ran only for a day, but it’s interesting in that it’s the very first ad Albanese has paid to boost since becoming PM.

Post 1 of 2

Anthony Albanese on a Melbourne construction site in June
Anthony Albanese on a Melbourne construction site in June. Photograph: Diego Fedele/AAP

Updated

Hello everyone – this is Cait Kelly. First up a big thank you to Natasha for the morning. She leaves big shoes to fill as always.

We are set for a busy afternoon with the RBA announcement on interest rates due at 2.30 pm followed by the Cup, with the race at 3 pm.

Let’s get into it!

Updated

That’s it from me, as I hand the blog over to the delightful Cait Kelly.

See you tomorrow!

Deployment of bombers part of ‘longstanding’ cooperation with Australia, US embassy says

The US embassy in Canberra has shared a bit more information with Guardian Australia about how the US deployment of the nuclear-capable B-52 bombers to Australia came about.

At the Australia–US Ministerial Consultations (Ausmin) last year, the two nations committed to:

  • Enhanced air cooperation through the rotational deployment of US aircraft of all types in Australia and appropriate aircraft training and exercises.

  • Establishing a combined logistics, sustainment and maintenance enterprise to support high-end war-fighting and combined military operations in the region.

The spokesperson for the US embassy said:

The US-funded airfield infrastructure projects at RAAF Base Tindal demonstrate US investment in and commitment to Australia and supports the rotational presence of a range of US aircraft in the Northern Territory, which is a longstanding feature of United States force posture cooperation with Australia.

A wide range of US military aircraft, including B-52s and other bombers, have visited Australia to participate in joint exercises for years.

As has been the case for several years, a wide range of aircraft, including strategic bombers like B-52s and B-2s, will continue to visit Australia for joint exercises with Australia and other partners and allies in the region under the United States force posture initiatives. Information about joint exercises, including media days and those open to the public, will be released closer to the start of each exercise.

A US air force B-52 bomber in flight
A US air force B-52 bomber. Photograph: Georgi Licovski/EPA

The spokesperson also said:

The US-Australia alliance is an anchor for peace, security and stability in the Indo-Pacific. The United States and Australia have a shared commitment to a region that is open, resilient and inclusive, and are committed to evolving the alliance to effectively respond to the strategic environment.

Updated

Victoria Racing Club ‘disappointed’ by sludge dump on Flemington track

The Victoria Racing Club has released a statement following the dumping of sludge at Flemington racecourse early this morning.

A spokesperson said the club was “disappointed by the actions of protesters, who caused some minor damage to the racetrack early this morning”.

Protesters poured an unknown fluid onto the surface of the track near the 1500m area. The track was immediately cleaned and repaired. Stewards deemed the track to be safe and there was no impact to racing. Police are investigating the incident.

An individual who claimed responsibility for the incident issued a media release to Extinction Rebellion, claiming the action was to highlight problem gambling.

Updated

Monique Ryan says stronger federal protection of native forests needed

The independent member for Kooyong, Monique Ryan, has taken to social media to speak out against the logging of native wildlife habitat.

Ryan began a tweet thread showing off some of her youngest constituents’ entries into the Australian Conservation Foundation’s kids’ wildlife art competition Wild At Art and took the occasion to reflect on her recent visit to Toolangi state forest.

I visited Toolangi State forest to hear about the destruction of our precious Central Highlands rainforests by logging. This kind of logging destroys habitat for wildlife including increasing the threat to the already endangered Leadbeater’s possum.

The federal protection of native forests must be reconsidered before it’s too late.

Updated

What is the cash rate? And how is it different to interest rates?

As Peter just told you, we’re expecting a decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting, which will reveal how much the bank hikes its cash rate.

Now the blog was very busy this morning so I was as guilty as anyone of throwing the term “cash rate” around, but you weren’t alone if you were left scratching your head wondering … what exactly does that mean again? And how is it different to the interest rate?

Luckily our wonderful multimedia team have you covered with a dedicated video explainer in Matilda Boseley’s excellent news glossary series.

Updated

RBA decision on interest rates expected at 2.30pm

About half an hour before a certain horse race in Melbourne, we’ll get the Reserve Bank’s latest decision on interest rates at 2.30pm AEDT.

As noted in an earlier post, the surprisingly large CPI reading for the September quarter made a rise in the RBA’s cash rate a better wager than anything on four legs today. The main tension is how high will it go.

At the October meeting, the bank surprised most economists with a 25 basis-point increase that snapped a run of four “super-sized” hikes of twice that in a row. In cutting the pace of rises, the RBA became the first central bank to ease back.

But after the inflation jump (particularly for the underlying inflation rate – the trimmed mean – that the RBA watches closest), there’s a chance of something larger than a quarter point today.

A 40bp increase would split the difference, with the advantage of creating a neater number. A figure like 3% is a lot rounder than 2.85% or 3.1%, although aesthetics probably don’t loom large in the minds of the RBA board.

Either way, we’ll be matching or exceeding the 275bp increase in the cash rate during the second half of 1994 in terms of the fastest tightening by the central bank.

A woman walking by the Reserve Bank building in Sydney
The Reserve Bank is set to raise interest rates today – but by how much? Photograph: Saeed Khan/AFP/Getty Images

Analysts such as Catherine Birch, a senior economist with ANZ, will be alert to changes in the accompanying explanation by RBA governor Philip Lowe.

Will it retain an emphasis about “keeping the economy on an even keel” or revert to stronger language, such as the need to “bring down inflation at all costs”, which has been the tone of some overseas counterparts, Birch says.

The ANZ and Westpac both pick the RBA rate peaking at 3.85% in the first half of 2023.

For a typical owner-occupier paying principal and interest with 25 years on the $500,000 mortgage to go, the rate rises (assuming they are passed on) since May to the peak would add $1,059 more a month to repayments, RateCity says.

Today’s pain, in other words, is unlikely to be the last.

Updated

Reporters battle wild weather at Flemington racecourse

The Melbourne Cup is going ahead despite some pretty wild weather, including hail and strong winds, which has left one ABC reporter, Stephanie Ferrier, doing battle with her umbrella.

Ferrier had earlier called the brolly the “essential fashion accessory” at this year’s races while reporting on the unseasonable conditions:

Today we are predicted to see the coldest Melbourne Cup Day since 1995, only getting up to a top of 14 degrees.

There is now starting to feel that windchill factor as well that is so commonly known across Melbourne, unfortunately. Here comes the wind as well. And we are expecting a lot of those showers and potentially, as you said, even hail this afternoon.

So, whether or not that actually happens at the running of the Melbourne Cup, we’ll have to wait and see. Many people are down here and the brolly this year is the essential fashion accessory.

Updated

Greg Hunt confirms giving evidence to multi-ministries inquiry

The former health minister Greg Hunt has confirmed that he has given evidence to Virginia Bell’s inquiry into Scott Morrison’s multiple ministries.

Hunt told Sky News:

We said at the time when we were asked – about a month ago – that we’d respond, which we did, and dealt with that exactly in the terms. In fact, I was thanked by Virginia Bell for both the timeliness and the comprehensiveness of the response.

Hunt said Morrison “never exercised” and “never sought to exercise” any of his powers in the health portfolio and “never even raised that option with me during the course of [the pandemic]”.

Asked why other ministers were not informed they shared their portfolios with Morrison, Hunt replied:

Look, in terms of the other elements, that’s not something which I have any knowledge. In terms of, you know, the public position, we’ve shared the same advice with everybody, and that is it was done as a contingency. And the prime minister, when he announced the Biosecurity Act, announced that he was the co-holder of those powers under federal health.

I’m not sure what Hunt is referring to here. In the first instances the Biosecurity Act was used in March 2020, it was Hunt named as the decision-maker.

Greg Hunt
Greg Hunt: ‘We’ve shared the same advice with everybody.’ Photograph: Bianca de Marchi/AAP

Updated

Car washed down flooded creek near Adelong

The NSW Rural Fire Service has shared images from the moment a car was washed down a creek near the township of Adelong.

Adelong is one of five towns in NSW which are under emergency warnings to “evacuate now” due to flooding.

Adelong’s main street is under water and residents have been ordered to leave.

Updated

‘Unknown substance’ poured on Flemington racecourse under investigation

An investigation is under way after an “unknown substance” was poured over the Flemington racecourse during a break-in this morning.

Victoria police confirmed detectives from the investigations unit were looking into the incident after being informed a substance had been poured over a portion of the track about 6am.

Extinction Rebellion has not claimed responsibility for the incident but said it had been “contacted by friends” who alleged they dumped 1,000 litres of “oily sludge” on to the racecourse.

A lengthy media release was attached, issued by a “problem gambler” who claimed responsibility for the incident. They said they were opposed to the “toxic industry” of racing.

The existence of this industry means that a select few get richer whilst normal punters go broke ... the Melbourne Cup is the super-spreader event for the virus of gambling addiction.

Racing Victoria said it had assessed the track following notification of some damage to the surface at the 1,500 mark and deemed it safe for racing:

Remedial work has been undertaken by Victoria Racing Club track staff. The track has been deemed safe for racing by RV stewards with no impact of the conduct on today’s meeting.

The Victoria Racing Club has been approached for comment.

Updated

Rescue helicopter resupplies medicine to cut-off property near Gundagai

Updated

Fears flooding has affected dugong numbers off Queensland

Researchers from James Cook University are conducting a survey of dugong numbers off Queensland’s coastline amid concerns the population has declined after recent flooding.

The researchers are using cameras strapped to a lightweight aircraft to survey numbers between Cape York and Moreton Bay.

AA native Australian dugong in Moreton Bay, Queensland
A native Australian dugong in Moreton Bay, Queensland. Photograph: Reuters/University of Queensland

One of the senior research officers, Dr Christophe Cleguer, spoke to ABC News about the problem:

We are doing this survey now to find out how many there are and looking at potential impacts of recent floods.

We’ve had a lot of rain in Hervey Bay early this year and we’ve got some reasons to think that dugongs might have moved from Hervey Bay as a result of a reduction in their seagrass habitat because they rely heavily on seagrass food, and so when seagrass starts to disappear, then dugong try to move in other places to find some food to eat.

Cleguer said while the focus was “counting every single dugong”, they would also count other marine megafauna sighted such as sea turtles, sharks, dolphins, whales and sea snakes.

Updated

Victorian opposition promises $1m for energy battery storage for community groups

Victoria’s Coalition has pledged to give community groups access to grants of up to $1m for energy battery storage if it wins this month’s state election.

The pledge was made on Tuesday morning, as the state election campaign begins in earnest.

The grants – accessible by sporting clubs, scouts halls and charities – would fall under a $100m net-zero renewable energy fund to install solar panels and big batteries. The Andrews government in September unveiled the country’s largest energy storage targets in a bid to drive down household power bills.

The opposition leader, Matthew Guy, said the grants would give energy security to community groups.

Batteries are a key part of that. That’s why we’ve got to have a plan that is sensible, realistic and reliable that keeps prices down.

Updated

New flood evacuation orders in NSW as snow possible around central tablelands

Across NSW, this is the current state of play when it comes to the weather. From AAP:

The Bureau of Meteorology said the Murrumbidgee River at nearby Gundagai was likely to exceed the moderate flood level (7.6 metres) again this morning. It was expected to surpass 8.5m about midday and could reach 9.4m by tonight, bringing the town’s worst floods since 1989.

Evacuations have been ordered and a series of road and bridge closures are also likely.

Downstream at Adelong, the main street is under water and residents in adjoining Selwyn and Tumut streets have been ordered to leave. An evacuation order has also been issued for Tumut Caravan Park on the swollen Tumut River amid rapidly rising waters and the threat of flash flooding.

There are still more than 80 State Emergency Service hazard warnings current for NSW. They include evacuation orders for residents along the Murray River at Willow Bend, Moama and Mathoura.

After some sunshine to round off October, the state faces another rainy month as temperatures drop, the BoM says. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast across most areas today, with creeks and rivers likely to rise rapidly as rain falls on already saturated or flooded catchments.

Following the wet, cold air is likely to sweep Australia’s south-east, bringing chilly temperatures, showers and alpine snow until midweek – all of which are unseasonal for November.

More rain and possibly hail will hit western and southern NSW, with a severe thunderstorm warning for damaging winds and heavy falls for Nyngan, Cobar, Bourke, Wilcannia, White Cliffs and Ivanhoe.

For the next fortnight, above median rainfall (more than 60% chance) is forecast for most of eastern Australia, increasing to very likely (more than 80% chance) for the north-east and far south-eastern mainland.

Snow is possible around the central tablelands and a light dusting might fall around the northern tablelands.

Flooding around Moree, northern NSW, last week
Flooding around Moree, northern NSW, last week. Photograph: Louise Kennerley/AAP

Updated

Two missing in NSW floods

A search has been launched for two men missing in New South Wales flood waters, evacuations are again at play in a series of communities in the state’s south and yet more rain is on the way.

The two men are thought to have been riding in the back of a utility swept off the road while being driven across a flooded causeway near the South West Slopes town of Boorowa.

Police say two others in the cab were able to free themselves and get to safety.

Further west, where Muttama Creek divides the Riverina centre of Cootamundra, residents have been directed to emergency accommodation at the local showground with dangerous flash flooding a concern.

Steph Cooke, the local member and NSW emergency services minister, told the ABC this morning the order was for 10 streets and about 100 homes. She said:

The weather event we saw come through from late yesterday afternoon and overnight has really caused some substantial damage and wreaked havoc right across the region.

It’s a long time since we’ve seen flooding hit the town in the way that it did last night and so people were having to work closely with the SES.

– From AAP

Updated

No referral of Plagued book's alleged national security committee leak: police

Officials from the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet (PMC) revealed on Friday it had referred the possible leak of national security committee information to the authors of Plagued to the attorney general’s department to consider whether “relevant criminal provisions” had been breached.

Plagued, which was written by Simon Benson and Geoff Chambers and revealed how Scott Morrison appointed himself to multiple ministries in his government, also contains details of deliberations of Australia’s national security committee of cabinet.

A spokesperson for the Australian federal police told Guardian Australia:

As of Monday 31 October 2022, the AFP has not received any complaint or report relating to this.

On Friday the attorney general’s department said it was “aware of allegations” the book revealed details of cabinet deliberations and had provided advice to PMC “on the scope of offences that apply to the unauthorised disclosure of security classified information”.

A spokesperson said:

The department is not an investigative agency and has not referred the matter to any other agency.

So that seems like the end of the matter.

Updated

Melbourne Cup draws animal rights criticism

It’s Melbourne Cup day in Victoria, but beyond fascinators and fashions on the field the “race that stops the nation” is drawing increased critique among animal rights groups and activists.

A petition launched by the Animal Justice Party in NSW demanding an end to horse racing in the state ahead of the Cup has drawn 30,000 signatures online, trending with the hashtag #NupToTheCup.

Yesterday, People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals (and the Coalition for the Protection of Racehourses converged on Flemington to hold a “T-rex” race in opposition to the Cup, stumbling towards a banner reading “Finish the Cruel, Prehistoric Melbourne Cup Now”.

It comes as the latest Guardian Essential poll suggested almost half of those surveyed (45%) believe the race promotes “unhealthy” gambling behaviour, with a third (34%) saying it normalises animal cruelty.

Greens senator Mehreen Faruqi said the social license of the racing industry was “clearly fading”.

The majority of people actually agree that racing is cruel. You wouldn’t know that, though, from the massive marketing campaigns from the racing and gambling industries that are designed to make events like the Melbourne Cup appear universally loved.

The Melbourne Cup is the most lavish symbol of the gambling-fuelled animal cruelty of horse racing. It has to be challenged. Animal cruelty goes way beyond the Melbourne Cup – there are systemic and unfixable problems with racing.

Updated

Not safe to return to Bogong Village

Wiebusch’s final update is that it’s still not safe for residents of Bogong Village to return after a major landslip yesterday.

Finally, we have an emergency warning: not safe to return for the Bogong Village. It was evacuated in the last 24 to 48 hours as a result of a major landslip … and it is impacting on the High Plains Road. The Bogong High Plains Road remains closed between Mount Beauty and Falls Creek at this time.

Updated

Flood rescues ongoing in Victoria, with five in past day: SES

Wiebusch says there have been “five flood rescues in the last 24 hours, predominantly with people attempting to drive through floodwaters”.

Updated

Major transport route reopened for Kerang

Wiebusch:

In good news, at Kerang we have seen the Murray Valley Highway reopened to the south, which means one of the major transport routes is now accessible back in and out of Kerang. However to the north and west and east, roads remain closed as a result of flooding.

Swan Hill, Boundary Bend and Mildura brace for flooding

Other Murray River communities are still bracing for flooding this coming week. Wiebusch says:

The Murray River at Swan Hill is likely to reach a major flood level later this coming week at 4.6m, and the bureau is continuing to do modelling and monitor the gauges downstream of Echuca, for that flood peak, so at that stage 4.6 is the initial indication of it reaching major at Swan Hill.

We have had SES volunteers, the rapid relief team, all working with local government and other community groups in and around Swan Hill with a major sandbagging effort and also door knocking.

The key messages that the main town centre of Swan Hill is not at risk, it is those areas immediately in and around the Murray River that are at the risk of major flooding later this week.

Murray River at Boundary Bend is likely to reach a 8.8m by this weekend into the early part of next week.

Mildura at the Murray Weir is likely to reach a level of moderate flooding between the 10th and 12 November before it peaks at the end of November.

By the flows on the Murray River, we still have a period of time ahead of us were those communities will be at risk of moderate to major flooding in the coming days.

Echuca won’t drop below major flood levels until early next week: SES

Tim Wiebusch from Victorian SES has spoken about the northern Victorian town of Echuca which has been at major flood level since last week.

We are still likely to see major flooding at Echuca well through to this coming weekend. It is currently at 94.81m, and indications are we won’t see a drop below major until late on Sunday or into the early parts of next week does Echuca.

Recent rainfall causing major to moderate flooding in Victoria

Tim Wiebusch from Victorian SES has provided an update on how specific Victorian communities are faring:

In the last 24 hours we have seen the Tallangatta Creek reach major flood level and has now receded to the moderate flood level, just as an example of very little rainfall – some 40-50 millimetres of rain – taking the creek up to flood level.

Communities along the Murray River need to continue to remain alert to their conditions …

On the Upper Murray we are likely to see moderate flooding at Jingellic overnight tonight, and that will flow through to Albury, Wodonga and down to Yarrawonga and Tocumwal where we could see the upper end of moderate flooding as a result of further releases coming out of the Hume and Khancoban Dams, and that is all a result of rainfall in the last 24-48 hours.

Updated

Chamber of commerce endorses plan to split IR bill

On Monday the workplace relations minister, Tony Burke, said he would be “deeply reluctant” to delay elements of Labor’s secure jobs, better pay bill in response to a suggestion from David Pocock that the bill could be split to deal with non-controversial elements this year.

The chief executive of the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Andrew McKellar, has endorsed the idea. He told ABC News Breakfast:

Well, look, I think that’s a possibility. I mean, obviously, we want to have those discussions with the government. I’m meeting with the minister later today, so there’ll be a chance to put those ideas to him directly. Let’s see what the government says. But what we’ve got to do is I think is take the time on those other elements of the bill. We don’t want to end up with unintended consequences that really could be very harmful to many smaller and medium-sized businesses.

McKellar was also asked about the Australian Resources and ­Energy Employer Association’s threat of a mining tax-style campaign against the IR bill.

He said:

Well, certainly, there are very deep concerns across many sectors in our economy. And the resources sector, mining, and energy, those are very important sectors in our economy with very big projects. So of course, yes, they are deeply concerned about what they’re seeing. My concern is more for small and medium-sized businesses, family businesses and the like, where they can’t afford to get wrapped up in this sort of regulation and additional red tape that’s going to add to complexity and make it much harder for them to manage their businesses. That’s where my main concern is.

Updated

Resource employers campaign against Labor's IR bill; Littleproud labels bill 'pay back' for union support

Dipping out of that Victorian presser for the latest in national politics …

The Nationals leader, David Littleproud, has warned the Senate crossbench the government is trying to rush its industrial relations legislation because it wants to “pay back” unions for their support.

On Tuesday the Australian Resources and ­Energy Employer Association chief executive, Steve Knott, told the Australian there was “white-hot anger” among mining, oil, and gas companies about the bill and these employers had “significant capacity to fund a substantial campaign”.

Knott reportedly said:

From my discussions, I have no doubt that unless the government slows down their plans to rush their initial bill through parliament before year’s end and makes substantive changes, the broader employer community will be energised to run an anti-IR bill campaign that will dwarf the ACTU’s Your Rights at Work campaign ...

They would absolutely dwarf the WorkChoices campaign and they have the financial capacity to do it. It would be like the mining tax campaign but on steroids. That campaign cost about $20m.

The industry has got a history of, when they’ve been poked, they will respond and there are enough corporate guerrillas in the mining, oil and gas sector who have come to me and said this is not on.

Knott called for the resources and energy sector to be carved out from proposed changes expanding multi-employer bargaining.

Asked about the possible campaign on Sky News, Littleproud defended adverse reactions to a bill he argued amounted to “payback to unions for helping Labor get into government”. He noted comments from CFMMEU secretary Christy Cain at the jobs and skills summit who “basically said ‘this is our time’”, and argued the union had been repaid with the proposed abolition of the Australian Building and Construction Commission.

Littleproud warned Jacqui Lambie and David Pocock - who will likely have the casting votes on the bill but have asked for more time to examine it - that the government is trying to sell them “a pup”. He said structural change “takes time, takes care” to avoid “perverse outcomes”.

Updated

‘This flood emergency is far from over’: Victorian SES

Wiebusch emphasises the flood emergency ‘is far from over’:

The flood risk still remains in many parts of our state, with flood watches for most parts of Victoria at this time.

We still have water storages that are at capacity, catchments that are now saturated, and we still have the climate drivers of La Niña and the negative Indian Ocean dipole which means we are likely to see above average rainfall for at least another 6-8 weeks.

In the last few days we have seen as a result of the rainfall renewed minor to moderate flooding in various parts of our state.

It will only take another large rainfall event for us to see our rivers in Victoria go back to major flood levels, and again, that’s why we are asking all Victorians to be flood ready now.

Updated

Victoria SES received 13,689 requests for assistance in busiest month on record

Tim Wiebusch of the Victorian SES follows Symes, saying:

October was the biggest month on record for volunteers, and this is off the back of what is now regarded as Victoria’s wettest month on record.

SES volunteers have now responded to 13,689 requests for assistance during October, making it the single busiest month on record for the SES.

That has exceeded what we saw back in June of 2021 which was the previous record of 10,740 requests for assistance and also what we saw in the February storm and floods of 2011 of 9,674 requests for assistance.

Updated

Sixteen community hubs across Victoria to be 'centrepiece' of help for flood victims

The Victorian emergency services minister, Jaclyn Symes, is giving a media conference in Melbourne about the joint Victorian and federal government’s $877m package for the state’s flood recovery.

Symes is giving a bit more detail about community hubs:

We anticipate there will be a need for around 16 community hubs across the state making sure that individual responses for individual needs of their own community. This is a model that will be familiar for those who have covered or indeed experienced the recovery efforts of the fires of previous years when we had these hubs in communities for some time, a centrepiece for people to ensure they can get the help.

We also know that many people, when they recover from a disaster event, may take time to think about what services they need – or, indeed, are distracted by other things before they might decide that they need to go and get additional help, whether it is financial or emotional support, for example.

These hubs will help people with limited Internet access and also support for cultural and linguistically diverse communities in relation to ensuring that they have access in the right information in the right way to ensure they know what support is available for them.

More about the full package here:

Updated

Consumer sentiment dims after budget and jump in CPI

Ahead of the RBA’s expected seventh consecutive monthly rate rise later today, there’s more news of weaker consumer confidence.

The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan survey found sentiment sinking another 1.5%. Confidence among those paying off a mortgage was down 15.6% over the past six weeks, said David Plank, ANZ’s head of Australian economics.

Denting demand is what the RBA, of course, is trying to do. Still, the survey has found those who think they are financially worse compared with a year ago has now risen to 47%, or the highest in three decades of the survey.

One reason for the sagging confidence, though, is the jump in the CPI for the September quarter, where the annual rate hit the highest in 32 years at 7.3%.

That rate (and an even higher tally for non-discretionary goods of 8.4%) has also fed into higher inflation expectations, the survey found.

That spike to 6.6% was the highest since February 2011, Plank said.

The RBA governor, Philip Lowe, won’t be happy with that reading, you’d have to assume.

As it is, investors have lately been pulling back on their forecasts of how high the cash rate will go. Today’s move is only moderately favoured as another 50 basis point rise to 3.1% – as a 52% chance.

But further out, they no longer expect the cash rate to peak above 4%.

Most economists are also less hawkish, with a spread among the big four banks of 3.1% (CBA) to 3.85% (ANZ).

Updated

Treasurer 'desperate' to avoid 'blunt reaction' from central bank

Speaking of the RBA decision, it’ll be the first meeting since the Albanese government’s federal budget was announced, so any decision by the central bank could be an indicator as to whether it thinks the government has got the monetary and fiscal policy correct.

This is what the treasurer, Jim Chalmers, had to say at a Business Sydney breakfast event this morning.

It was really one of those things hanging over every conversation – this sense that if you do get it wrong you can spook the market, you can provoke a blunt reaction from central banks – and that is what we are desperate to avoid here.

Updated

Investors tip 52% chance of 50 basis-point rate rise

Guardian Australia’s economic oracle, Peter Hannam, has tweeted ahead of the RBA meeting today where a seventh consecutive interest rate rise is predicted in as many months.

Investors are tipping just over a 50% chance the rise will be a 50 basis point rise.

Updated

Aussie firm turns classic cars electric

An Australian startup adding modern technology to classic Land Rovers will become part of one of the biggest electric vehicle conversion companies in the world this week after merging with an English firm.

Melbourne-based Jaunt Motors will partner with Zero EV to create Fellten, in a plan that will see the companies operate across Australia, the UK and North America.

Jaunt Motors co-founder Dave Budge said the merger was not just about converting more classic cars with electric motors themselves but helping car owners and mechanics to make the switch too.

We’re scaling up to deliver hundreds of units next year and beyond.

And the biggest thing is awareness. Most people don’t know that this is even possible.

Electric vehicles represented just 3.39% of new car sales in Australia until September, but the new firm will convert existing petrol vehicles, including Porsche 911s, Mini Coopers, Land Rover and Land Rover Defender vehicles, into EVs to boost their numbers.

Budge said:

If you want a true full-drive electric vehicle on the market in Australia there isn’t one. Even though the conversation is expensive ... it’s comparable with the price of a new Land Rover.

- from AAP

Updated

Here are the latest flood warnings which have been issued for NSW within the last hour:

The Bureau of Meteorology is predicting major flooding at Scone and moderate flooding at Bathurst this morning, while Gundagai could see major flooding from midday today.

Updated

Top pay for top-performing NSW teachers

Top-performing NSW teachers could earn as much as $150,000 a year under reforms the government is proposing to combat the profession’s shrinking supply and keep the best and brightest in the classroom.

The proposal to reward excellent teachers with higher pay and enhanced status was unveiled today, in a government options paper developed by Melbourne University education expert Prof John Hattie.

Hattie recently told a NSW parliamentary committee probing the crisis that a lack of a financial incentive tied to career progression was a major contributor to teachers leaving.

Under options released for consultation, classroom teachers assessed as “expert” under the “Rewarding Excellence in Teaching” program could attract salaries up to $147,000 a year or beyond in recognition of their skills and impact.

The education minister, Sarah Mitchell, said the program was a key component of the government’s focus on building an education system that recognises and rewards excellence.

Initial feedback showed around three out of four teachers in NSW would be interested in putting themselves forward for the senior role.

Hattie’s paper proposes the creation of new teaching roles across schools with salaries ranging from $117,000 to $147,000, depending on the proportion of mentoring and collaboration time undertaken.

Over the next month, more than 100 roundtables will be held with teachers and other school staff to get feedback on the paper, while others will be able to share their thoughts online through a survey.

The “Rewarding Excellence in Teaching” program is expected to start next year and scale up over time.

- from AAP

Updated

Penny Wong meets with leaders in Brunei

The minister for foreign affairs, Penny Wong, has shared images of her meetings with the Sultan of Brunei as well as her Bruneian counterpart, Dato Erywan.

Wong says she had “warm discussions” with Erywan about maritime security, mental health, food security and climate change.

Updated

Victorian and federal governments to announce $877m package for flood recovery

Victorian businesses in flood-affected areas will be able to receive up to $200,000 in grants as part of a $877m support package to be announced by the state and federal governments.

Under the scheme, grants of up to $50,000 will be made available to eligible businesses and not-for-profit organisations to aid recovery efforts, including rebuilding infrastructure and replacing damaged assets.

Primary producers and rural landholders will be eligible for grants of up $75,000, while medium and large-sized businesses directly affected by the floods will be able to receive up to $200,000. This is in addition to concessional loans of up to $250,000, already announced by the federal government.

Updated

We’ve been bringing you some of the news about rain causing more flooding in NSW. Here are some visuals from Wagga Wagga in southern NSW and the Newell highway in the state’s central west.

Jacinta Allan avoids question of whether families returned from Syria would be welcome in Victoria

The Victorian deputy premier, Jacinta Allan, was on ABC radio this morning as the state government officially enters its caretaker period tonight ahead of the upcoming state election.

RN Breakfast host Patricia Karvelas pressed Allan on the Victorian government’s stance on the four women and 13 children returned from Syria this weekend. The Australian reports all the families will live in suburban Sydney, so it’s potentially hypothetical.

Karvelas:

The first group of families the wives and children of Islamic State fighters arrived in Sydney over the weekend from Syria and are now living in the community in Sydney. Will Victoria accept returnees?

Allan:

I was with the premier [Daniel Andrews] on Sunday at a at a media event… where the premier was asked this direct question and I’ll give to you the answer he gave on Sunday which is these are very sensitive security matters. They are primarily the province of the federal government, it would not be appropriate -

Karvelas:

As a matter of principle, will you accept them [in] Victoria? Or have you asked for them not to come during the election campaign?

Allan:

We’ve not, Patricia. There is a … As I think we’ve seen from the media reporting around this issue, this is a very careful matter. There is a very -

Karvelas:

Sure, but as a matter of principle, do you think returning citizens – they’re Australian citizens – should be allowed to live in Victoria?

Allan:

I would really direct you to the federal government and the federal … I think you would appreciate that this is not a simple yes or no proposition because there needs to be robust and careful assessments that are not undertaken by the Victorian government. They’re undertaken by the federal government and the federal Department of Home Affairs.

Karvelas:

And if they do all the checks and balances, should they be welcome in Victoria?

Allan:

Firstly it’d be entirely inappropriate to cut across that and secondly, I am in no position to run a commentary.

And that’s when the interview ended for news time.

Updated

China takes aim at US-Australian bomber plans

China has accused the US and Australia of escalating regional tensions with the plan to deploy up to six American nuclear-capable B-52 aircraft to the Northern Territory.

Officials in Canberra yesterday confirmed that the US-funded aircraft parking apron at RAAF Base Tindal, 320km south-east of Darwin, would be capable of accommodating up to six B-52 aircraft at a time but said it could also house other aircraft types. The project is now in the design phase.

A spokesperson for China’s foreign ministry, Zhao Lijian, said at a daily press conference in Beijing last night:

All countries’ defence and security cooperation needs to contribute to regional peace and stability and must not target any third party or undermine their interests. Such a move by the US and Australia escalates regional tensions, gravely undermines regional peace and stability, and may trigger an arms race in the region. China urges parties concerned to abandon the outdated cold war zero-sum mentality and narrow geopolitical mindset, and do more things that are good for regional peace and stability and mutual trust among all parties.

The detailed plans were aired on the ABC’s Four Corners program last night amid increasing concerns in Canberra and Washington about Beijing’s own military buildup and its threat to take Taiwan by force.

For more on this story, see our news wrap:

Updated

Five 'evacuate now' flood warnings for NSW

Overnight the SES have issued “evacuate now” warnings for Cowra, Willow Bend, Adelong, Boorowa Dam and Tumut Caravan Park, in addition to 400 properties evacuated in Cootamundra.

Updated

Better data framework for NDIS needed to combat pricing concerns, commissioner says

Dr Ben Gauntlett, the disability discrimination commissioner at the Australian Human Rights Commission, on Sunday tweeted about the unit price paid to NDIS providers compared with what workers actually see in response to debate about the scheme on ABC’s Insiders program.

He’s asked more about that issue:

We need to make sure in this debate that we understand providers and participants do not necessarily have the same interests.

We need to be really conscious when we have the debate that we emphasise the outcomes for participants and the participants get value for money for the dollars spent.

Asked if some providers are price gouging, Gauntlett says:

I think there is evidence that there is some concerning behaviour in the market relating to pricing and providers.

We need to create a far better data framework that underpins the national disability insurance scheme. We need to measure outcomes better. And we also need to provide a lot of impetus to get a little known policy to become widespread, which is the national disability data asset. We need to be able to make invisible need visible and to track expenditure on outcomes to ensure that what we’re getting is the best outcomes for people with disability possible.

Updated

Building disability policy system with layers will avoid cost blowouts, commissioner says

The solution?

Dr Ben Gauntlett:

If we build a disability policy system that has layers to it, that understands the interrelationship between local, state and commonwealth governments – most importantly understands the need for a whole of community attitude to improve in relation to areas such as employment, then that [$100bn per year] figure will not be reached, instead we’ll have a disability policy system that’s the envy of the world.

Updated

NDIS costs have blown out because it has become an ‘island in the oasis’, commissioner says

Spending in the NDIS was identified as one of the top five fastest rising areas of government spending, with the budget put the scheme on track to cost more than $100bn a year by the end of the decade.

Dr Ben Gauntlett, the disability discrimination commissioner at the Australian Human Rights Commission, is speaking with ABC Radio this morning. He explains why the blow out is occurring:

What has happened is everyone has relied on the NDIS to provide services, that being commonwealth, state, territory and local government.

It’s become, for want of a better expression, an island in the oasis and what we need to do is to be really clear to build a framework where there is a disability policy system that has different layers to it, to support people in different ways.

In that way the cost will not necessarily reduced, but the expenditure will be as effective as possible.

Asked about whether $100bn is sustainable, Gauntlett says:

When we talk about sustainable, I also think we need to remember that we’re talking about people. We can never lose sight of the humanity that underpins the NDIS.

Updated

84 flood warnings across NSW

More than 80 hazard warnings are current for NSW, as widespread rain is expected on already saturated or flooded catchments.

In the the Riverina, residents of Cootamundra have been evacuated with Muttama Creek is in flood, while Gundagai could see major flooding.

Residents along the Murray River have been advised to seek higher ground at Willow Bend, Moama and Mathoura, as well as residents on the Adelong Creek, south-east of Wagga Wagga, which is a tributary of the Murrumbidgee River.

Updated

Public servants to front Robodebt inquiry

Senior public servants involved in the design and implementation of the Centrelink Robodebt scheme will appear before a royal commission into its failures.

The Albanese government initiated the inquiry into the scheme, which was designed under the Liberal-National Coalition to recover debt from welfare recipients.

Lawyer Anne Pulford and former assistant director Mark Jones, public servants within the Department of Social Services that oversaw the scheme, are due to provide evidence today.

Senior counsel assisting the commission Justin Greggery yesterday revealed the department knew about the potential illegality of the scheme well before a pilot program was initiated.

Greggery told the commission legal advice had not been sought from the solicitor general before the scheme was implemented. Instead, the departments responsible for overseeing the scheme had sought internal legal advice:

That advice raised significant questions about the legality of the scheme.

He said the advice raised concerns about the proposed approach by the department to determine a social security debt.

In December 2014 the social services department received advice that “the proposal to smooth a debt amount over an annual or other defined period may not be consistent with the legislative framework”.

Submissions to the inquiry are open until February 2023, with a final report due by mid-April.

– from AAP

Updated

Good morning!

The Reserve Bank is expected to increase interest rates for a seventh month in a row when it meets today. The cash rate is now 2.6% after it was raised a quarter of a percentage point last month.

RBA governor Philip Lowe indicated that as rates go up, big hikes were less likely.

The decision comes on the day of the Melbourne Cup, an event for which the latest Guardian Essential Poll indicates enthusiasm is slipping with more than half of Australians uninterested.

Amid growing support for the Nup to the Cup movement, the poll suggests almost half of those surveyed (45%) believe it promotes “unhealthy” gambling behaviour, with a third (34%) saying it normalises animal cruelty.

In more economic news, Australians home prices have fallen for six month in a row, with Core Logic’s latest data showing prices fell 1.2% in October.

The second day of hearings of the royal commission investigating the botched Centrelink Robodebt scheme are taking place today with senior public servants involved in the design and implementation of the scheme to front the commission.

As more rain has hit NSW, the Riverina is being hit by flooding. Residents of Cootamundra have been issued with evacuation orders after the Muttama Creek is in flood while major flooding is possible at Gundagai.

The Victorian government goes into caretaker mode at 6pm tonight ahead of the state election. That means it can no longer make major policy decisions, sign contracts or make significant appointments during this period.

Let’s kick off!

Updated

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