Thank you for following along with us tonight, on what ended up being a historic win for the Labor party.
We will have more news and comment for you very soon, with our chief political corro, Paul Karp, working away as we speak.
We will have more on the fallout tomorrow, so make sure you tune in.
And most importantly – take care of you.
(And a reminder, daylight saving ends in the early hours of Sunday morning –so enjoy your extra hour!)
Updated
There are non-stop rumours that Scott Morrison is going to pull the pin very soon, which would mean another byelection in Cook.
NSW is not as big an issue for the Liberal party as Victoria, so there are not quite the same concerns. But there are concerns about what this means for the Liberal party at large.
There are those who point to 2007, when the Liberals were smashed at the polls – and how the Liberals turned that around in two elections. But this is different. The next big election test is not until October 2024 when Queensland will go to the polls. The Palaszczuk government is weighed down by controversy and how long it is in power, but so far the LNP are not looking like they will be guaranteed a win. And that is worrying LNP strategists even at this early stage.
There are rumours that Anthony Albanese will move to capitalise on the Liberals’ issues and go to an early election next year, in order to get a mandate on the stage-three tax cuts. That is just scuttlebutt, but it is growing stronger.
This byelection is going to have ramifications. For Peter Dutton’s leadership (although there doesn’t seem to be any move for a spill, because as more than one Liberal MP said to me tonight “who else would we pick?”), for the voice – Dutton’s soft no doesn’t look like it has electoral support, and for the Liberal party moving forward.
And possibly, if it was smart, the Labor party. Which could take it as a “keep doing what you’re doing” result or, if it showed some forethought, as a push to be a little bolder and braver when it comes to the policies it is offering up.
The electorate is listening. And watching very closely. It would be a brave leader indeed who ignored that.
Updated
Tony Barry lays out the problem for the Liberal party moving forward, given that voters born after 1980 are not falling their way and are unlikely to, on current indications.
My concern is gen Y and gen Z, voting for Labor and the Greens becomes habit-forming.
Because of the housing ownership crisis, that generation are reaching historical milestones for conservatism at later ages.
It happens in your 30s as opposed to your 20s, if at all.
When you have something to conserve, you become conservative by nature.
My concern is this democratic bulge is happening and the Liberal party will not be competitive for a very long time to come.
(On the demographics, I have been arguing that for sometime – because you see your friends struggling, you are struggling, you don’t see anything getting better, and people start looking for answers elsewhere.)
Updated
The Liberal party strategist Tony Barry speaks a little more plainly here on the ABC panel:
My concern is we have always called Victoria the Massachusetts of the south, and there was always the little oddity in the seat of Melbourne, where the Greens used to give him a big run for his money but he used to win, and then the Greens won and started performing better in other seats. And at the last election they won three seats in Queensland.
As a Queenslander, I am concerned that Victoria is not the Massachusetts of the south, it’s just the leader of the curve, and what we’re seeing in Melbourne demographically … that’s coming out across the rest of the country.
Updated
Peter Dutton is not doing a postmortem. He seems a lot more reflective – and is jumping ahead to his own leadership. This is not quite Scott Morrison ‘I saw an eagle and knew God was sending me a message’ (nothing ever will be), but it is very much ‘I know how to fight’.
I can tell you this, I have been tenacious from the time I got into politics. I have won in marginal seats for the last 22 years, I don’t give up, and I will make sure that we build this party, particularly here in Victoria, into an election machine by the time we have the 2025 general election, and we will do that for the sake of our country because there are many Australians who are hurting at the moment, many Australians who have been let down by Labor. And the government is in its honeymoon, but they have two-and-a-half years to govern and I believe very strongly we will be in an election-winning position by 2025.
I am very grateful for the support of my colleagues; I have a fantastic team. Nights like tonight are always difficult for all of us and for the Liberal family, for our support base, but the positives that we take away is we will regather and rededicate ourselves and double down on our determination to win the next election for the sake of our country.
Updated
Australian voters ‘don’t swing on the fringes’: Liberal strategist’s stark warning after Aston loss
The Liberal party strategist Tony Barry knows the numbers, knows the tracking and knows what the party is facing.
He is being much more realistic about the issues the Liberal party is facing compared to the MPs we have heard from tonight.
This is not a Victorian thing, as Peter Dutton tried to paint it, it is not a Scott Morrison hangover thing, it’s not a negative campaign thing, it is not even a Peter Dutton as leader thing.
It is a generational issue which the Liberal party at large has not cottoned on to as yet. Younger voters control the vote now. Millennials have eclipsed boomers as the biggest generation. They don’t have the same wealth and property to protect as previous generations – in fact, Australia’s most educated generation is about to be the first to not do better than their parents in terms of wealth building – and so, they aren’t getting more conservative as they age, like their parents and grandparents (in the aggregate) did. They are getting more progressive. They are not rusted on voters either, they go by issue. And they understand tactical voting in a way other voters haven’t.
Millennials and Gen Z are motivated, engaged and fed up with the state of the world. They don’t rely on messaging, they rely on what they know about the issues. And so far, the Liberal party hasn’t given them anything to hold on to. And so they are turning away from the culture wars and the targeting of marginal communities and fear campaigns. With a more progressive electorate, there is no such thing as a safe seat.
The same is true for Labor, but it pivoted in time. That same electorate will judge if it is enough at the next election. But the Liberals cannot win with what they are doing.
Barry knows it:
I know a lot of the commentary will focus on Peter. But I will say it is actually more about the problem with the Liberal party, the problem the Liberal party has with the quiet Australians.
The middle Australians out there, quite empathetic, they have moderate views when it comes to social issues, they don’t swing on the fringes, they find all that type of politics quite weird, and the Liberal party has spent the last five, 10 years basically not talking to them.
Updated
That was not a speech Mary Doyle expected to be delivering, so she switched that up in the last couple of hours.
But I think we learned a little about Doyle there – she thinks of herself as a suburban mum, she loves her music and she gets emotional about her team and her family.
Updated
Oops, no, the people of Aston get the final thank you.
I would like to thank the good people of Aston for putting their trust in me, electing me as their representative, and I want to say I hope I won’t let you down … I promise to do as well as I can for you. Thank you so much.
Updated
Once the party thank yous are done, Mary Doyle turns to the volunteers and starts to get emotional.
This is the really big one. I can never say thank you enough to our excellent volunteers, who gave up so much of their time, their labour and patience to make sure this area is not taken for granted by the Liberal party. I am so grateful to every ... single person here tonight, especially Russell and Jackie, they have become like family to me.
And then she turns to her children. And that is where the tears start coming.
And to my beautiful kids and great-niece, when I see the things you are doing and the people you are becoming I feel so positive about the future, I really do. You are three great young people, and the whole family, whether they are here, watching from above, I’m incredibly proud of who you all are, and thank you.
Anthony Albanese gets the final thank you.
Finally ... finally, I want to thank the bloke who, like me, was raised Catholic and grew up in public housing and also like me has excellent taste in music, the 31st prime minister of Australia, Anthony Albanese.
Anthony leads a government ... that Australians can truly be proud of, a government that has hit the ground running, trying to fix a decade of problems and neglect and scheming and rorting from the Coalition. A bloke who I am proud to have made over 100 years of history with.
Updated
Mary Doyle:
And about an hour ago or so ago, Roshena Campbell did call me and she wished me all the best in my role as the next member for Aston, and she was very gracious and I thank her for that and I wish her all the best.
Doyle moves on to thank her team, Victorian Labor and the federal Labor MPs who have helped her.
I think even our most optimistic true believers knew that I was the underdog this campaign. Even after the excellent result we had at the election last year. What we were trying to do hadn’t been done for 100 years.
And Aston has been Liberal since Sinead O’Connor’s Nothing Compares 2 U was top of the charts way back in 1990, when I was just a slip of a girl at 19.
We were the underdogs, but boy have we shown that we have a big bite.
This is an extraordinary endorsement of the Albanese government’s positive plans for the country and a credit to all your hard work.
And, as I said, the support I received over the past couple of months has just blown me away.
I even had Billy Bragg in one of my T-shirts.
Updated
He then introduces the newest Labor MP, Mary Doyle.
Thank you so much, Richard. What an excellent deputy prime minister. Victoria thanks you.
You guys, wow.
I’m Mary Doyle. I like to be humble still. I’m a suburban mum and I’ve lived in the outer eastern suburbs for more than 35 years and as of tonight, I guess I’ll be your next member for Aston!
Updated
Richard Marles thanks the Victorian Labor team and volunteers for, among other things, knocking on “deer” (he means doors, but it’s been a big day for Marles and I don’t think his nervous system is used to so much adrenaline).
Of course, tonight is a huge endorsement of our prime minister, Anthony Albanese. ... Albo is a great guy. I know it, but the Australian people know as well.
And it is my great honour as his deputy to see each and every day it up close, and have one thing on his mind and that is how can he advance the interests of the Australian people. That is the inspiration for every one of us who are a member of his government. And we are so lucky to have the opportunity to serve the Australian people as members of the Albanese Labor government.
Updated
Richard Marles turns to Mary Doyle’s win:
There are ... precious few moments where you get to be in the presence of history.
So soak it up.
Not since the 1920 Kalgoorlie byelection has a sitting government won a seat from an opposition in a byelection. But tonight Mary Doyle has done just that.
Can I acknowledge Roshena Campbell. It is a great honour to represent a major party in contesting the federal seat and Roshena has done that with dignity.
There is applause.
Updated
Labor's Mary Doyle claims victory in Aston byelection
“We bloody did it,” yells a supporter as Mary Doyle steps up on the stage with Richard Marles.
Marles opens on the voice:
Can I start by acknowledging the traditional owners of the land on which we meet to pay my respects to elders past and present. And say that I and Mary are deeply proud to be a part of a government which is committed to introducing the Uluru statement from the heart.
We are going to work ... tirelessly to see recognition of our First Nations people through a voice to parliament referendum later this year and when that happens it will be one of the great unifying moments for our nation.
Updated
Mary Doyle has entered the Aston byelection party alone and to massive cheers.
She looks a little shellshocked.
Roshena Campbell thanks her friends in the Liberal party and the campaign, as well as her volunteers, before moving to her family.
I want to ... thank my husband James [Campbell, of the Herald Sun]. It’s not easy being married to a candidate but it is the greatest privilege to walk through this life with him.
To my parents, whose sacrifice has always been extraordinary but particularly over these past weeks, and my children, James, Beatrix and Alexandra. Like so many, I put my hand up to serve because I want to make this country better for you, and all of our children.
I will always be proud to be a Liberal and always be proud to be Australian because we live in the greatest country in the world.
Tonight, I congratulate Mary and I congratulate the Labor party, but for me, and our party, the Liberal party, there is only one thing to do – we will fight on.
Updated
Roshena Campbell thanks the other candidates and Peter Dutton as well as her Victorian team.
She is clear-eyed and strong-voiced.
I want to thank the other candidates, Mary, Angelica, Maya and Owen, and their supporters, because we are incredibly lucky to live in this country where we have a strong democracy, and we can always rely on fair and free elections, which is not the reality of much of the world today.
Because of that, we must respect the electorate’s decision, so shortly before I called Mary Doyle to congratulate her for being successful tonight and having the privilege of being the next member for Aston.
I want to give my profound thanks to the people of Aston, for the past five weeks I have had the privilege of listening to them and hearing their stories.
Tonight was not our night. But our democracy needs a strong opposition, and the time will come, I think soon, when this country needs a strong Liberal government.
Updated
Liberals concede defeat in byelection
Peter Dutton has arrived at the Aston headquarters with Roshena Campbell.
He says it is time to rebuild:
Firstly I want you to congratulate an amazing candidate in Roshena Campbell. I am incredibly proud to be here with you tonight.
I want to say thank you to all of our workers. It’s a tough night for the Liberal party and our family here in Victoria – not the first of those tough nights – we have been out of government 20 of the past 24 years.
A lot of work ahead of us to listen to the messages sent to us today from the people of Aston, but listen to them we will and we will grow stronger from this experience and work towards the next election to make sure we are in a much better and stronger position by the time of the next general election.
I want to congratulate Mary Doyle and the Labor party for their success tonight.
Thank you to Roshena and her family – a tough day for any candidate, but for Roshena Campbell and your family, you have given us everything.
I have been incredibly proud to see the work that Roshena Campbell has done on the ground, worked fabulously, gathered, as you can see tonight and as we have seen over the course of the last month, a group and a network of volunteers who have done our party proud. So thank you very much for being here, what you have done over the course of the campaign. Thank you very much to Andrew Hirst, Simon Badger and the campaign team, they have given day and night over the course of the campaign to put us in the best possible position– we gather together now, we rebuild and I promise you we will never give in.
Updated
You may remember at Tuesday’s joint partyroom meeting, Peter Dutton was telling the room that the Victorian Moira Deeming issue was hurting the Aston byelection.
Liberal insiders are now saying the track polling showed the seat was in trouble and those comments were preparing the party for the loss.
Love a bit of hindsight, huh?
Updated
Pre-polls are in – Labor is ahead.
Labor will win this with about a 6% swing.
Updated
The Liberals I have been speaking to tonight are not expecting a spill for Peter Dutton’s leadership.
Mostly because they don’t think there is anyone else with the numbers.
The Liberals now hold just seven of Victoria’s 39 seats.
Roshena Campbell has rung Mary Doyle to concede.
It is done.
Updated
Albanese congratulates Doyle on ‘historic win’ in byelection
Anthony Albanese is in Tasmania, so he won’t be at the Aston party, but he has called Labor’s Mary Doyle and congratulated her on her “historic win”.
He’ll be on a very early flight to Melbourne tomorrow to join her for her victory lap.
Updated
The Liberals lost the federal election, the Victorian state election, the NSW election and now, almost certainly, a byelection in safe Liberal territory.
Is the Liberal brand in decline?
Jane Hume, still looking very peaceful, says no, of course not.
No, the Liberal party is not in terminal decline. Obviously we had an election loss last year, a review into that election and we look at all the factors that played into that.
Some of those still continue on through this byelection today, but the Liberal party is an 80-year-old party, it has been in government for two-thirds of the time of that 80 years and has been fundamental to some of the best policy decisions, the most periods of prosperity that this country has seen and it will be around for many decades to come.
The question for us now is how to make sure those Liberal party values that are so dear to us – choice, personal responsibility and reward for effort, aspiration, the importance of small business and the centrality of families in whatever form they take, the social fabric in Australia, all of those things – we need to make sure those values and principles are embedded in us and they better reflect the society we want to represent.
Updated
The Liberal senator Jane Hume is asked why, given the positive qualities of Roshena Campbell as a candidate, the Liberal party suffered such a large swing against it tonight. She replies:
There are always a number of issues that come into play in a byelection in particular. A retiring member who was quite popular – he took the margin up to be under 10%, and it came down at the last election, and probably swung back even more than the national average – but he was still a popular local member. So we have a new candidate with no name recognition, she had to start from scratch, behind the eight ball.
Mary Doyle was already out there from the last election so she had higher name recognition, she had already spoken to a number of electors, so that played a big part. And a government is still in its honeymoon period and that still is playing out. People want to make sure that the choice they made at the last election is vindicated in some way so they like to give governments, new governments in particular, a chance.
Updated
Hume says Aston result ‘very sad’ for Liberals but hails Campbell as ‘extraordinary candidate’
The Liberal senator Jane Hume is taking the peaceful and conciliatory road tonight.
No doubt that this is a very sad result, particularly because Roshena Campbell is, was, is such an extraordinary candidate – a professional woman who has a migrant background, articulate, empathetic, and just exactly the kind of person we want to run for the Liberal party.
This was not our night, that’s a terrible shame, but I don’t lose all hope, and in fact when I was out on the polling booths today and in pre-poll in the lead-up to today, there were not baseball bats out for the opposition, certainly not baseball bats out for the government either, but I don’t think that these cost-of-living pressures, which were the number one issue we were hearing about when we were out there speaking to the residents of Aston, I don’t think people are associating the cost-of-living pressures they’re feeling with the Albanese government.
Updated
The deputy prime minister and Victorian Labor MP Richard Marles says:
However it plays out, in terms of which side of the line it falls, it’s obviously not been the night for Peter Dutton, but, as you say, it has been a night which is an endorsement of the direction that the government has been taking, and what we will continue to do is work day in, day out for the Australian people, making sure that their issues are front and centre and we focus on the bread-and-butter issues which are of concern to them – the cost of living, inflation pressures – and we will just keep doing what we have been doing, making sure that we are doing that in a serious way.
One of the things we have really felt over the past 10 months is that after a 10-year period of drift in this country we have a government which has got adults in charge and is trying to think about the way in which we go about our business in the interests of the Australian people, and we will continue doing that.
Updated
With 33 of 36 booths counted, along with preferences, Labor has a 6.2% swing towards it.
Marles says Aston count is vindication for Albanese leadership
It is hard to see that the Liberal candidate, Roshena Campbell, will be delivering anything other than a concession speech when she steps up to the stage at Liberal HQ.
The deputy prime minister, Richard Marles, is smiling like they have just named one of the SSN-Aukus submarines after him.
Firstly, we are being cautious, as you would expect us to be, so we’re not calling it yet, but it is a remarkable night.
Whatever else we see tonight, what is really clear is that by rights we should have had no points in this election – this is a safe Liberal seat – and in fact what we have got here is a result where the predicted swing you may have expected to the opposition just has not occurred, and this is a vindication for Anthony Albanese’s leadership and a very difficult day for Peter Dutton.
Updated
Does Keith Wolahan think the Liberals should stick with Peter Dutton?
Does he think Dutton could win a general election?
I think he can, and I know I will get ridiculed on Twitter for that, but I really do. I think he is a good leader, and I saw good and bad leaders in the most trying of circumstances, and he has all the qualities of a good leader.
Updated
Keith Wolahan, the member for Menzies, named for the man seen as the father of the modern Liberal party, which was practically birthed in Victoria, is now having to explain why that same party is struggling to hold any relevance in Victoria.
I come from a party that is driven by values and principles over power and, yes, tonight is a tough night, but we should always be guided by our values and principles.
Updated
The AEC is about to finish the count on the 36 polling booths on first preferences.
Labor is still well ahead. The Greens preferences are flowing to Labor. Even if pre-poll has a slight break to the Liberals here, there is just no real coming back. They would need to have almost every vote bend their way.
No matter what happens from here, this is going to be a very, very, very interesting interview.
On #Insiders this Sunday, David Speers interviews Opposition Leader Peter Dutton #auspol pic.twitter.com/jVoxeYTDNa
— ABC News (@abcnews) March 30, 2023
Updated
Mary Doyle is just an hour or so away from knowing whether she has made history as the first government candidate to win a byelection from the opposition in more than a century.
She is not expected at the Labor party function until after 9pm, but the mood there is ELECTRIC I am told.
Updated
Antony Green says if the Liberal party wins from here, it would be the biggest turnaround he has ever seen.
He says every pre-poll would have to go the Liberals’ way.
But the numbers are not with them.
Updated
The ABC's Antony Green calls Aston byelection for Labor
With 31 of the 36 polling booths reporting first preferences, Labor’s Mary Doyle is still ahead.
Antony Green is calling it for Labor.
Updated
Does Keith Wolahan think the “Noalition” policy of saying no to legislation and dealing itself out of Senate negotiations has hurt the Liberal party?
I don’t think so because they are bad legislation and whatever has happened tonight, and we don’t know what has happened tonight, we have a good idea, but I don’t think that suddenly means our analysis of a particular bill is flawed. We look at those carefully and had party room deliberations on those, and they are flawed legislation, and that does not change that. Whether the messaging was made clear or not, that is something we will have to look at.
Updated
Keith Wolahan, the Liberal MP for Menzies, is having an existential crisis in real time on the ABC’s coverage.
Asked if the Liberal brand is “toxic” in Victoria, he says:
I wouldn’t use the word toxic, but it’s not good. I think ... I don’t know what word to use.
… If we lose Aston tonight, to have two federal Liberal seats in a city of 5 million, that will in the next decade be Australia’s largest, that is not just bad for my party, but also our democracy – and on a state level to have in a quarter of a century, one term of a Liberal government – anyone watching this, that takes joy in that, I would say what does that mean for us as a democracy, and we need help as a party, and many more people in our party.
Updated
Pauline Hanson said she wasn’t running a candidate to help the Liberal party.
This could be a very costly decision for the Liberal party.
Updated
There is currently a 6% swing towards the Labor party with 27 of the 36 polling booth’s first preferences counted.
Pretty much all the pre-polls would have to go the Liberals way for Roshena Campbell to win this.
Stranger things have happened, but it is looking increasingly likely Mary Doyle could make history here.
For those asking why Peter Dutton’s leadership may be a little uncomfortable right now, given it has only been a year or so since the election, Anthony Albanese found himself in the same position about a year into his leadership of the Labor party, with the Eden-Monaro byelection.
That was a close result, but was expected to be a close result.
This was expected to be a close result, but not this close. Certainly, a Labor win wasn’t expected in a seat the Liberals have held since the 80s.
It is a suburban seat, where Dutton was expected to have appeal. If it was an inner-city seat, people would have expected the Liberals to struggle, but Dutton is supposed to be popular in the suburbs.
It makes all of this so far very uncomfortable fort Dutton.
Updated
With 16 of those 36 booths reporting a preference count, Mary Doyle so far has a 9.1% swing towards her for the Labor party.
That, I don’t need to tell you, is pretty big for this point of the night.
Postals won’t be counted until tomorrow. But we will start getting pre-polls tonight.
The first preference count is in for 30 booths now (six more to go):
Labor – 53%
Liberal – 47%
Updated
Antony Green has just said: “This is starting to look serious for the Liberal party.”
That is quite serious talk for Green.
Updated
But given that the whole byelection campaign was built around the cost of living, what does that say?
Dan Tehan says:
We always knew when it came to cost of living that the Australian people were going to give the Labor party, the new government, a chance to see what they could do to address that, and what we have to do is demonstrate that the policies that they have put in place are not helping.
The Australian people, when there is a new government, always want to give that new government a chance, and we have seen them do that. We have to obviously make the case as to why those policies are continuing to drive up cost of living, they are not helping when it comes to putting downward pressure on interest rates, so we know that that is the work that we have to do between now and the next general election. We will continue to do that.
We have to remember we are only 10 months into this new government, it takes time to make your case, and we will continue to make our case, and build it and in the lead-up to the next election, which could be the end of next year, or the year after.
Updated
Here is a little more from what Dan Tehan had to say a little earlier:
I am not going to start doing a postmortem now. Obviously we want to wait and see what the final outcome is, and then there will be time to look and see, OK, what other lessons that we can learn.
We have learned the lesson from what happened in 2022, and obviously we will wait and see what the outcome is here, though, of course, from every election, from every byelection, you have to look at the outcome and obviously assess, and work out where you need to go from here, and we will do that no matter what the outcome is.
Updated
The ABC’s Antony Green has updated his outcome to ‘ALP likely’.
It is still too early to say for certain, but Labor’s count here is higher than even the most optimistic Labor sources thought.
The Liberal party is not giving up as yet, but there is a lot of nail-biting going on at the moment. A lot.
Updated
The AEC is reporting 25 of 36 booths have returned results (10 of those have returned preferences) and Labor is still ahead.
Mary Doyle – 53%
Roshena Campbell – 47%
Updated
Labor’s count watchers are reminding us that the early swings are from the booths in the north of the electorate, where there is a large Chinese-Australian voting population.
That swing could be calmed down by some of the southern booth counts.
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation aren’t running a candidate. If this comes down to preferences, that could prove a costly decision for the Liberal party.
Nineteen booths have reported to the AEC and Labor is still ahead.
Mary Doyle – 54%
Roshena Campbell – 46%
Updated
Dan Tehan, a Victorian Liberal, is trying to keep the light burning.
He tells the ABC:
I think it is still too early, we obviously want to see pre-poll, postal and we want to get a sense from booths right across the electorate, and I think we really need to wait and see.
We always knew this would be close, but until we get a good sense of all the votes from all the booths I think it is too early to tell.
Updated
We are at the stage of the night where Antony Green is looking slightly fevered.
Which for the ABC election expert speaks at the speed of light.
Because at the moment, Labor is on track to WIN the seat of Aston, which would break more than 100 years of tradition.
Updated
So far just four of the 16 booths have reported a preference count along with first preferences.
But results are starting to roll in very fast now: 52.5% to Mary Doyle to 47.5% to Roshena Campbell.
Updated
Thank you to those sending us messages of how they are spending this byelection Saturday.
We are particularly jealous of the Doritos and red wine.
With 14 of 36 booths reporting (not all have gone into preferences yet, so still too early), the projected 2pp is 52.2% Labor to 48.8% Liberal.
Updated
With 10 booths counted, Labor’s Mary Doyle has a very slight lead over Liberal Roshena Campbell – 50.06% to 49.96%.
Updated
Now Labor is being a bit freer with the information when it comes to the vote.
Labor’s interpretation of the Wantirna South booth is it has a large Chinese-Australian population. Mary Doyle was campaigning there with the multicultural affairs minister, Andrew Giles, this morning.
Labor is making note of this, because in previous elections, people with Chinese heritage tended to fall behind Alan Tudge.
That was one of the booths Labor had its eye on this byelection and it has come in Labor’s way.
Again, that is one booth and this early in the count you can’t draw conclusions.
Updated
With three booths reporting, Labor has pulled ahead with a 9.53% swing – but there are still not enough booths or votes which have come in to make any sort of commentary about what it means.
From the first booth, the Liberals have 304 votes, while Labor has won 240 votes. That is a small swing to Labor.
But it is also ONE booth.
You can not extrapolate anything from one booth from 36.
Updated
OK, I know this is a bit of a slow start (byelections always are) but we should start getting concrete results from the booth counting very soon.
Byelections tend to be like falling asleep – just staring at a wall, a flood of anxiety and then sweet relief (or maybe that is just me).
Updated
We should start to get some results from the smaller booths very soon.
All votes cast today will be counted by the Australian Electoral Commission. The majority of pre-poll votes will also be able to be counted.
Postal votes though won’t be counted until Sunday morning.
A close result may mean there will be no winner called for some time – that tends to be rare though – you usually know by the end of the night.
Updated
Labor has been pushing the line that this byelection “is a test for Peter Dutton”.
Dutton says it is not and it is a referendum on local issues.
Readers may remember a reversal of those lines – the Eden-Monaro byelection following Mike Kelly’s retirement from federal politics.
That was set up by the then prime minister Scott Morrison as a comment on Anthony Albanese’s leadership of the Labor party in 2020. Labor ended up holding on to the seat – just, when there was a swing in postal and pre-poll votes to Labor. Kristy McBain, the now local government minister, increased her margin at the 2022 election.
It’s amazing how quickly the message changes when the shoe is on the other foot.
Updated
During the last week of the campaign, internal Labor polling ‘somehow’ found its way into the hands of the Sky News political editor, Andrew Clennell.
If you didn’t see it during the week, you will be SHOCKED to learn that it was negative for Peter Dutton, and found he was a drain on the vote.
Now keep in mind this is Labor’s internal polling.
Asked about it yesterday, Dutton said:
You’re talking about self-serving Labor polling that’s been released. I think the fact is that if you have a look at the latest Newspoll, my figure is exactly the same in net favourability terms as was Anthony Albanese eight days out from the 2022 election.
Updated
Dutton says Aston voters can ‘send Labor a message’
Peter Dutton, in his sixth visit to the the electorate to campaign with Roshena Campbell, said that Aston voters could “send Labor a message”.
He told the media on Friday:
It’s also an important message for Labor to hear in relation to the cost-of-living pressures that families are experiencing. Every decision that Labor has taken economically over the course of the last 10 months has driven up the cost-of-living pressures on families and on small businesses. We’re seeing it in the last 24 hours where they are talking about now a disruption to gas supply, which would be a terrible outcome for families, particularly over winter, a terrible outcome for small businesses, and you’re seeing an inevitable increase in gas prices, in power prices under Labor as a result of the bill they brought through the parliament with the support of the Greens this week.
So there is an opportunity here in Aston to send a message to Labor that it’s just not good enough that the cost-of-living pressures continue to go up and up and Labor’s policies, which are inflationary, feeds an increase in interest rates and families are paying that through their mortgages each month.
Updated
Albanese admits winning Aston a tough ask
Anthony Albanese campaigned with Mary Doyle this morning in Aston, where he admitted it was a tough ask for Labor to win the seat:
Oppositions generally get swings. When Labor was in government, the byelection swings have been between 5 and 6% towards the opposition. And no government has won a seat off the opposition in a byelection for over 100 years. But we’re giving it a crack today. And I want to really thank Mary for the work that she’s done. And all the volunteers who are out here at the polling booths right around the electorate of Aston.
And just remind people, voting is compulsory. The truth is the vote is down substantially, the pre-poll voting. And people need to get out there and have their democratic say today. No matter who they’re voting for, people should vote. It’s a very important principle in our democracy that has served our nation well.
Updated
The Labor candidate, Mary Doyle, cut down Alan Tudge’s lead from 10.1% to 2.8%.
That was when there was A LOT of anger over the Morrison government. That anger has dissipated, given the government has changed.
Plus, a government hasn’t won a byelection from an opposition in more than 100 years.
Cost of living has been the major issue this election, and Aston is one of the mortgage-belt seats.
Updated
Polls close in the Aston byelection
The polls are closed!
Booths are going to start rolling in in about 45 minutes or so.
Updated
Having had a chat to both sides through the afternoon, no one is thinking that Labor is going to win the seat, but it is being described as closer than it should be.
Alan Tudge had a large personal following, something Roshena Campbell doesn’t have.
Updated
Good evening!
Thank you to Nino for this afternoon – you have Amy Remeikis for the rest of this night as we take in the results from the Aston by election.
Why is this one so important? Well, it’s not going to change the government. But it certainly could change the opposition leader depending on how close this result is.
We’ll take you through the evening.
Polls are about to close, so enjoy this small lull.
Updated
That’s it from me, thanks for reading. Amy Remeikis is sliding into the chair to bring you all things Aston byelection. Stay kind!
Updated
Menindee farmers scramble for stock water after latest mass fish kill
Farmers near Menindee in western New South Wales have to make the choice between spending hours carting untreated water for their stock or allowing them to drink water containing “potentially toxic algae”, after a mass fish kill contaminated the Darling-Baaka River.
Plans to flush the river to remove the sludge of millions of dead fish have been criticised because they involve releasing water earmarked for environmental flows.
Residents within the town of Menindee, population 550, have repeatedly been told that water processed at the town treatment plant is safe to drink.
You can read more on that story here:
Updated
If you’re settling in for a night in front of the blog (where we will bring you live Aston byelection updates), you should warm up with this long read on the current state of the Liberal party:
Updated
Wonder if the PM asked Billy to make a trip down to a booth in Ferntree Gully today for the Aston byelection?
Great to catch up with my old pal Albo at the Tivoli in Brisbane. Met him on my 1st Aus tour in 87 when he organised a Red Wedge style event for ALP youth at Sydney Trade Union Club. He’s come a long way since then #SocialismOfTheHeart pic.twitter.com/vaifAfJ6AB
— Billy Bragg (@billybragg) April 1, 2023
Updated
Less than an hour until polls close in Aston, and the Australian Electoral Commission will be hoping that PLENTY of people cast a ballot today, given its warnings earlier in the week about low pre-poll numbers.
As of the end of Monday, only 14,233 people had voted early, compared with 18,540 votes cast in Aston at the same stage in the 2022 federal election.
Tasmanian government investigates possible data breach
The Tasmanian government is investigating a possible data breach.
According to a statement issued late on Friday, the technology minister, Madeleine Ogilvie, said a breach of a third-party file transfer service “may have resulted in the loss of data held by the government”.
Ogilvie said:
We are currently working closely with forensic specialists to ascertain the extent of the breach, and we will keep Tasmanians updated as this progresses.
The timing of the possible breach disclosure has been criticised.
Taking out the trash last thing on a Friday. A fine tradition of Tasmanian politics. #politas pic.twitter.com/Ny0oof56Rd
— David Killick (@DavidJKillick) March 31, 2023
The ABC reported that the government declined to provide further detail on which transfer service had been breached, how many Tasmanians could be affected or what sort of data may have been exposed, with a spokeswoman saying the government was “not in a position” to do so.
Jen Butler, from the Labor opposition, criticised the government’s response, telling the ABC:
Given the valuable information held by the government on all Tasmanians – including driver’s licence details, births, deaths and marriages data, and medical records, it is vital that Tasmanians know their personal information could be at risk.
Updated
There’s more here on the news from earlier that Labor will be unable to form a majority government in New South Wales:
Two hours until polls close in the Aston byelection. Here’s a great piece from yesterday about the race to replace Alan Tudge:
Updated
The Australian Bureau of Statistics, known comedic geniuses, have also got in on the April Fools’ Day gags.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has made the decision to realign our social media strategy. We recognise the seriousness of communicating ABS data, and regret that we have strayed from this goal. pic.twitter.com/o2W7vv3CjO
— Australian Bureau of Statistics (@ABSStats) March 31, 2023
Updated
And with that, I leave the blog in the hands of Nino Bucci. Thanks for reading.
Updated
Australia’s high commissioner to UK to visit Julian Assange in prison
AAP is reporting that the high commissioner to the UK Stephen Smith is to visit jailed Australian, Julian Assange, in custody.
The Wikileaks founder continues to face espionage charges in the US and remains in London’s Belmarsh prison, held there since 2019 while fighting extradition proceedings.
It will be the first time since November that year he has accepted a consular visit and the first time a high commissioner has met with the Australian behind bars.
Assange’s father John Shipton has welcomed the news in a statement:
It will provide an opportunity for the high commissioner to see the appalling conditions Julian is kept in and the terrible toll that his ongoing incarceration is having on his health and on his family.
His son’s long-running ordeal had been especially heartbreaking for his daughter-in-law Stella and two young grandchildren Gabriel and Max, Shipton said.
The glimmers of hope followed by bitter disappointments. The humiliation of body searches by uniformed guards and frightening dog searches just to visit their husband and father for a precious short time.
It could and should end right now.
Assange campaign spokesperson Greg Barns SC called the development significant.
It’s the first time in over a decade of detention that a senior Australian government official has visited Australian publisher Julian Assange.
The UK government could end this injustice today. All it has to do is say ‘no’ to the US extradition.
Barns said once Smith had seen Assange, they would urge him to speak with his British counterparts as it was in their power to deny the extradition and free him from “the nightmare he has endured for over 13 years”.
Updated
Liberals narrowly win two seats with Ryde too close to call
Nine and the SMH have also called the seats of Terrigal and Holsworthy for the Liberals, while still reporting that Ryde is too close to call.
With 79.53% counted, the western Sydney seat of Holsworthy has been called with only 1,328 votes separating Labor candidate Mick Maroney from Tina Ayyad, amid a 2.93% swing against the Liberals.
Nine also called Terrigal earlier today with 83.17% of the votes counted. The Liberals have held onto the seat by the skin of their teeth, weathering a 11.65% swing against them.
With just under 85% of the vote counted, the inner-city seat of Ryde is still too close to call, with just over 200 votes separating ALP candidate Lyndal Howison from Liberal candidate Jordan Lane.
Updated
ABC calls two NSW seats for Liberals, ending Labor hopes of majority
In breaking news, the ABC has called the NSW seats of Terrigal and Holsworthy, ending Labor’s hopes of a majority.
The ABC’s chief election analyst, Antony Green, has called both Terrigal and Holsworthy for the Liberals today, leaving Labor on 45 seats, two shy of the necessary 47 to form a majority.
Green said Terrigal was won by only 1,258 votes, with postal votes pushing Liberal candidate Adam Crouch over the line.
Meanwhile, Green also called Holsworthy for Liberal candidate Tina Ayyad, who was ahead by 600 votes earlier today and had postal votes trending towards her.
Updated
Andrew Giles says Aston is a chance to ‘send a message’ to Dutton
Immigration minister Andrew Giles has weighed into the Aston byelection, saying opposition leader Peter Dutton is “out of touch” with voters in Melbourne.
Giles told Sky News that the byelection was an opportunity for voters to “send a message” to the opposition leader:
People here are keen to send a message to Peter Dutton. Now this is a seat that had a 55% Liberal primary vote only four years ago and here something extraordinary is happening.
It’s a very tight race, it’s a tight race because of Mary’s campaign and also because Peter Dutton and the Liberals are just out of touch with the values of voters in the suburbs of Melbourne.
That’s something I’ve heard time and time again as I’ve been out here with Mary.
Updated
New Victorian road cameras to catch phone use
New traffic cameras in Victoria will be able to detect mobile phones and seatbelts, amid the state government’s move to reduce road traumas.
In a statement, Victorian police minister Anthony Carbine announced that more than $33m had been spent on the AI-enabled cameras that he says are estimated to prevent 95 crashes a year.
The plan is to roll out the cameras from the middle of the year, with 200 locations across rural and metropolitan locations earmarked.
Carbine said the cameras would detect a range of different devices:
Using mobile phones behind the wheel puts lives at risk and can result in tragedy. We’re deterring this type of risky behaviour on our roads with new phone- and seatbelt-detection technology.
Updated
Sydney land set for housing to become national park after koala discovery
AAP is reporting that Sydney land earmarked for new housing development will be turned into a national park after koalas were discovered living in the area.
“Today is about one thing and one thing only and that is that we need to get on and save koalas in the wild,” new environment minister Penny Sharpe told reporters at Wedderburn, in the city’s south-west, on Saturday.
They’re on track to be extinct by 2050. We’ve got a 28-year window to turn this around.
One week on from the NSW election, Sharpe has directed the National Parks and Wildlife Service to take control of nearby land owned by Sydney Water, at Woronora Heights near Heathcote, and turn it into a protected corridor.
While the tract is relatively small, a new population of koalas had been discovered there and protecting the population was vital, Sharpe stressed.
This is extremely important.
Sydney Water was planning to put housing into this very important corridor where there are koalas, and then they were going to flog it off.
This is also about not privatising public land.
Koalas were listed as an endangered species in NSW last year and a NSW parliamentary report found the marsupials were on track for extinction before 2050 unless the government intervened to stop habitat loss and other threats.
Updated
Dutton says Labor’s road funding cuts in Aston ‘a disaster’
Out of hiding and into the open, opposition leader Peter Dutton has been seen on the campaign trail in Aston today.
Campaigning alongside Liberal candidate Roshena Campbell, Dutton used the opportunity to tell reporters what he thinks of the government’s decision to scrap road upgrades in the area:
[Labor] haven’t explained to the people of Aston why it is that they cut road funding as the first act in government, and it’s quite remarkable.
It’s a disaster for locals and people realise that the first act of the Albanese government was to cut road funding here in Aston … They’ve never apologised for it, they never explained why.
Dutton went on to point to the rising cost of living as incentive for votes to ensure the Liberals hold on to the seat:
There are a lot of Australian families who have heard Anthony Albanese promise before the last election on 97 occasions that he would reduce your power to $275. That was a promise he made before the election, he’s never mentioned it since, not once.
So cost of living pressures are real for families and the opportunity in the election today is to send a very clear message to Labor that they shouldn’t be cutting local road funding, and they shouldn’t be abandoning this community.
Updated
PM says Liberals’ negativity will cost them in Aston
I just wanted to return to the prime minister’s comments in Aston this morning, and more specifically, what he thought the result of the byelection could mean for the Liberals.
Albanese said he was “very hopeful” that Labor could put a dent in the seat, and more interestingly, said that the current negativity of the opposition would work against them:
At the moment it is just a cultural problem that they have, of just pretending that they didn’t have the result that they did in last year’s election.
They continue to just say no to everything. It is very predictable what their response is. They block and say no to absolutely everything in the parliament. They are very negative in the way that they approach everything and I think Australians deserve better.
Australians deserve, in our major party system, an alternative government that puts up alternatives. The current Liberal party don’t put up amendments, they just say no.
What I have done is run a government that is a mature government, that functions properly, that says what we will do and then does it.
That is what today’s byelection is about – it is not about personalities, it is about the country, and that is why I will continue to promote an optimistic view, to seize the opportunities that are there.
Updated
Australians charged up to $6bn for unused car spaces, study finds
AAP is reporting that Australians are being overcharged up to $6bn for car spaces they don’t use, worsening housing affordability and parking availability.
A new study from RMIT University has found unbundling parking from new apartments could save people who don’t own cars tens of thousands of dollars and free-up parking spots for those who do.
The lead researcher, Dr Chris De Gruyter, said one in five households were paying for parking they didn’t use while 14% of households did not have enough.
A single parking space could drive up the cost of a Sydney apartment by more than $100,000.
The problem derived from apartments being sold or leased with parking spots as part of a bundle, regardless of whether the new resident needed it.
De Gruyter said:
People don’t get a say on how many car parking spaces they want or need. It’s already allocated for them.
He called on local and state governments to allow for parking to be unbundled from new apartment builds in planning policy.
That would give prospective buyers or renters the ability to choose the parking right for them and more effectively allocate parking supply from those who didn’t need it to those who did.
The growth in build-to-rent housing, in which a development is designed specifically for renting rather than sale, promised to boost the popularity of unbundled parking.
People who used public transport saved money and tended to be healthier and more active. Greater public transport use resulted in less pollution, noise and congestion and more space available for pedestrians.
De Gruyter also recommends removing minimum parking requirements for new developments or even legislating parking maximums, which have proven successful in transport-rich, walkable cities like London.
De Gruyter said policy change had been stalled by unfounded community fears that removing minimum parking requirements would reduce the availability of on-street parking.
But research indicated it was actually residents in detached homes who were the greatest users of street parking.
De Gruyter said:
If you speak to anyone in the transport industry, they all say we should be unbundling car parking and we shouldn’t have minimum parking requirements.
What we’ve got has been around for so many years and it’s really becoming outdated.
Updated
It appears Queensland police have jumped onto the April Fools bandwagon (or they really will use paddleboarding, you just can’t be sure these days):
Today we launch our Stand Up Paddleboard Squad.
— Queensland Police (@QldPolice) March 31, 2023
They will be cracking down on dangerous behaviours on our pristine waterways. If you see them, chuck a shakkas and say 'sup! 🤙 pic.twitter.com/cJnF84e1uv
Updated
Albanese quizzed on cost-of-living pressures
The PM was asked a series of questions by assembled journalists, including one on whether the rising cost of living will hurt Labor’s chances of winning the seat:
It was pleasing the results, the trend, going in the right direction this week with the figures, but we know cost of living pressures are there. That is why we have done measures like the reduction in costs of pharmaceuticals and cheaper childcare.
That is why we support people on the minimum wage not continuing to go backwards. During the federal election campaign a year ago, when I said that if the Fair Work Commission granted a pay increase of a dollar an hour to people on the minimum wage, then I would welcome that.
The opposition, the then-government, the Liberal party, said that the sky would fall in. It is no wonder they don’t support solar energy because they are always saying that the sky will fall in.
Updated
Anthony Albanese held a door-stop in Aston just now, beginning by saying today’s byelection is an opportunity to “send the Liberal party a message”.
The PM also sang the praises of Labor candidate Mary Doyle, saying she is a local, a single mum who knows the pains of the cost of living crisis, and is a cancer survivor.
I have been here now, this is my fifth visit to the area, and on every one of them I have been impressed by the work that Mary has done, following on from the work that she did in the last election campaign.
It is about time that the opposition recognised that they need to do more than just say no to everything. When I was the leader of the Labor party in opposition, I put forward constructive ideas – cheaper childcare was a commitment that we made. Action on climate change, the National Reconstruction Fund, manufacturing jobs were all commitments that I made very early on in my leadership of the party.
The opposition, under Peter Dutton, just are sitting there saying no. They have become the observers rather than the participants in our national parliament and that is why I want Mary Doyle to be elected today.
It is tough, oppositions generally get swing. When Labor was in government, the byelection swings have been between 5-6% towards the opposition. No government has won a seat off the opposition in a byelection for over 100 years. We are giving it a crack today.
Updated
Bungled surgeries among serious incidents on rise in WA hospitals
Western Australia’s hospitals have recorded an uptick in preventable serious incidents including medication errors and bungled surgeries, AAP is reporting.
Data released by WA Health highlights an increase in sentinel events – serious and wholly preventable clinical incidents that caused or could have caused serious harm or a patient’s death.
There were 26 sentinel events resulting in two patient deaths in 2021/22, up from 19 events and six deaths the previous year.
Both deaths in the most recent year were linked to medication errors, while a further 12 medication-related incidents resulted in serious harm.
There were five instances where a patient had surgical or other invasive procedures performed on the wrong site, two of which caused serious harm.
Other serious incidents involved the wrong procedure being performed on a patient and the “unintended retention of a foreign object in a patient” after surgery or other invasive procedure.
Sentinel events are included in the total number of “SAC 1” events – clinical incidents attributable to healthcare provision, or lack thereof, that could have caused serious harm or death.
There were 574 SAC 1 incidents in 2021/22, a 2% decrease from the previous year.
Of those, 139 resulted in death, compared with 147 in the prior financial year.
Those outcomes may have been influenced by “multiple contributing factors” including complex medical conditions, WA Health said.
Health service providers recorded a 3.6% increase in inpatient activity as measured by hospital bed days.
The chief medical officer, Simon Towler, said other indicators of patient safety highlighted improvements in the health system, including a drop in hospital-acquired complication rates for patients in recent years.
WA Health continues to be committed to improving patient safety by reviewing incidents or potential incidents and developing clinical strategies to prevent these occurring in the future.
Almost two-thirds of confirmed clinical incidents ... had a patient outcome of no harm.
However, we need to consider every potential incident as an opportunity to examine where we can improve.
Updated
Mark Latham doubles down on homophobic tweet
Sticking with NSW this morning, One Nation senator Mark Latham has doubled down on his homophobic tweet, saying “boo-hoo Alex Greenwich”.
In a statement published by the Saturday Telegraph, Latham appears unrepentant after tweeting a homophobic insult directed towards Greenwich, an independent NSW MP.
Latham’s comments come after he was called a “disgusting human being” when violence erupted last week outside a church in Belfield where Latham was speaking.
Latham, it appears, has dug his heels in:
Sometimes in public life when you throw out insults they come back at you harder and truer … So boo-hoo Alex Greenwich.
When he calls someone a disgusting human being for attending a meeting in a church hall, maybe attention will turn to some of his habits.
Greenwich goes into schools talking to kids about being gay. I didn’t want to be accused of anything similar, leaving that kind of content on my socials.
Updated
NSW premier signals pay rises to essential workers above 3%
The new premier of NSW, Chris Minns, has given another indication the government will give pay rises to essential workers above 3% this financial year and the next.
Speaking to The Weekend Australian, the premier said he would negotiate with the unions “in good faith” and would consider the rising cost of living in any agreement.
That is a floor, not a ceiling, and obviously we are not going to go below that [3%]. It needs to be done by mediation and negotiation but we are confident, having heard from union leadership since the election campaign, that we can get a landing on these issues.
Unions have got a right to sit down with the government and negotiate on these things – that’s what we promised in the election campaign. The private sector is running in front of the public sector when it comes to wage increases in NSW. So that should be seen in context.
Secondly, we have to make sure there is help for small business. That’s one of the reasons why we are going to implement our rebate for small businesses with $315 to cope with rising energy bills.
Updated
Good morning
Good morning everyone, and welcome to this Saturday’s live blog.
We begin in Victoria, where the Aston byelection could make or break Peter Dutton’s leadership of the opposition. Liberal candidate Roshena Campbell is still expected to narrowly hold on to the seat, in Melbourne’s south-east, but Labor’s Mary Doyle is pushing hard. The seat, vacated by scandal-plagued former minister Alan Tudge, offers voters a chance to weigh in on Dutton’s leadership, and we will see how things play out.
Elsewhere, One Nation senator Mark Latham has spoken out for the first time after he posted a homophobic tweet earlier this week that sparked widespread condemnation. The senator, whom NSW premier Chris Minns labelled a “bigot”, tweeted last night, saying “never apologise, never explain”. It comes as experts say that a sacking is “unlikely” but that Latham could face a vilification complaint for his tweet.
Counting continues in NSW after last week’s election, with Labor’s majority under threat. AAP is reporting that three seats, Ryde, Terrigal and Holsworthy all remain in the balance, with Labor on 45 seats and needing two more to form majority. All eyes will be on when the count ends.
Finally, it is April Fools’ Day today, so any and all jokes/pranks are welcome to be sent in. We will keep an eye out for any that stand out, as well as everything else that’s happening across the country.
