What we learned: Thursday, 26 September
The time has come, the walrus said, to wrap the blog for the evening. Thanks for joining us, as always, we’ll be back first thing tomorrow to bring you all the latest. But for now, adieu, stay safe and dry.
Here were the major developments of the day:
Australia has signed on to a joint statement alongside the United States, Canada, the European Union, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom and Qatar calling for an immediate 21-day ceasefire across the Israel and Lebanon border. The statement cites an “unacceptable risk of a broader regional escalation”, as Australians in Lebanon have been again urged to leave.
It comes as the foreign affairs minister, Penny Wong, has asked the Israeli government to “respond positively” to requests from Zomi Frankcom’s family to release audio related to the fatal strikes on her aid convoy in Gaza.
The National Anti-Corruption Commission inspector has confirmed she is conducting an investigation into the decision by the commission not to investigate the referrals from the robodebt royal commission.
Anthony Albanese has confirmed his government is not considering taking negative gearing or capital gains tax reforms to the next election.
The opposition leader, Peter Dutton, has lashed out at the University of Sydney’s vice-chancellor over his handling of a pro-Palestine encampment this year. He told 2GB if Mark Scott had a “shred of integrity” he would resign. The university said an independent review of its policies and procedures was currently under way.
And the Victorian government has announced it will have to spend an extra $837m to complete its Metro Tunnel project by the end of 2025.
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NSW Greens call for independent oversight body for disabled children
In New South Wales, the Greens have called for an independent oversight body for children with a disability after the auditor-general released a report into the Department of Education’s practices.
The performance audit found the department had effectively designed approaches and developed reforms under its disability strategy, but pointed to “longstanding issues” with funding, access to targeted supports, monitoring school practice and tracking outcomes for students with disability.
It noted:
This is despite the department being made aware of these performance gaps for almost two decades across multiple audits, parliamentary inquiries and the recent national Disability Royal Commission.
Greens NSW MP Abigail Boyd, who chaired a recent parliamentary inquiry into the experiences of young people with disability, said the report was “damning”.
We need an independent oversight body for children with disability in our education system – as unanimously recommended by all members in the recent multi-partisan parliamentary inquiry report – with the primary purpose of advocating for students with disability and their families at its core, with the ability to oversee all issues from enrolments and adjustments to exclusionary discipline and allegations of discrimination.
The NSW government must commit to implementing in full all recommendations of this report, our parliamentary inquiry, and the Disability Royal Commission. Anything less than this will constitute a tragic failure of leadership and serve to perpetuate the cycle of disadvantage experienced by disabled people in this state.
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Cocoa shortage to leave bitter taste in mouths of chocolate lovers
Bad news for sweet tooths. Chocolate prices are expected to soar again as cocoa commodity prices hit their highest level in nearly 50 years, the research arm of global agriculture and commodities bank Rabobank has warned.
Cocoa prices peaked at nearly US$12,000 a tonne in the first half of 2024 in response to a global cocoa shortage.
Global production for the 2023-2024 season is down 14.2%, according to the International Cocoa Organisation, due to low yields for the third year in a row in West Africa where 70% of the world’s cocoa is grown.
Read the full story from our Rural Network:
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BoM expects wet and warm end to the year
Weather news, just in! The Bureau of Meteorology has published its long range forecast for the three months to the end of December – and it’s looking wet and warm.
Above average rainfall is projected for most of Australia, along with warmer than average days and nights.
In western WA and the southern NT, rainfall is expected to be within its typical range for the season.
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Qantas says engineers’ strike has not affected passengers
Strike action by Qantas engineers has not affected passengers, with plans in place to keep people moving over the AFL grand final weekend. The action kicked off in Melbourne on Thursday and will spread across the nation in coming days.
“As of early Thursday afternoon, we haven’t had any impact to customers as a result of the industrial action,” a Qantas spokesperson said.
We have contingencies in place for the industrial action planned on Friday and the weekend and, like today, don’t currently expect this industrial action to have an impact on customers.
Unions are pushing for a 15% pay rise in 2024 and 5% a year going forward, which they say would make up for three-and-a-half years of wage freezes.
Qantas made a profit of $1.25bn in the 2023-24 financial year, down 28.3% on the previous 12 months.
The Australian Workers’ Union national secretary, Paul Farrow, said:
You can’t expect to announce billions in profits and executive bonuses and simultaneously tell the engineers who keep your planes safe to take less and less home to their families.
Further industrial action is expected on Monday, Wednesday and next Friday, which is days before the NRL grand final in Sydney.
– AAP
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Children pulled from suspicious house fire in Melbourne’s west
Children have been pulled from a burning Melbourne home, with police investigating the circumstances surrounding the fire.
The house fire occurred in Albanvale in the early hours of this morning.
Victoria police said:
It is believed unknown offenders set fire to three vehicles in the driveway of a residential property on Jackson Circuit just before 5am.
The fire spread to the residence, causing significant damage.
A woman and three children home at the time were not injured.
A crime scene guard remains and an arson chemist is expected to attend later today.
Investigators are making enquiries into the circumstances of the fire which is being treated as suspicious.
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If you’re wondering what’s happening with this cold snap on the east coast, Emily Wind has the answers for you:
Peter Dutton says if Mark Scott had a ‘shred of integrity’ he would quit as University of Sydney vice-chancellor
Peter Dutton has called for Mark Scott, the vice-chancellor of the University of Sydney, to resign.
Scott is facing calls to resign over the university’s handling of a pro-Palestinian encampment on campus. He has apologised and conceded the university must do better. You can read more about that here:
Appearing on 2GB this afternoon, Ray Hadley asked Dutton:
Can you see Mark Scott surviving as the vice-chancellor after he failed to get support from the chancellor, David Thodey, recently, over his admitted mistakes, you know, misrepresentations as the vice-chancellor, basically the CEO of Sydney Uni?”
Dutton replied:
No, I can’t. I think both Mark Scott and David Thodey should resign. If they had any shred of integrity, they would have resigned by now. They should, because there are people in the Jewish community, whether they’re academics or students who were treated, they were discriminated against and they’ve been treated in a way that we wouldn’t accept any other group, regardless of their religion or background or race or whatever it might be, that they would be treated like that.
So, Mark Scott’s admitted that they got it wrong, and they got it wrong well and truly. Both men were aware of the situation – even though they might deny it – and I don’t think their positions are tenable.
Scott and Thodey have been contacted for comment. A University of Sydney spokesperson said:
The Senate is actively working with the Vice-Chancellor to make sure that the University of Sydney is a safe place for all our staff and students, and has the best governance possible. As we announced two months ago we have an independent review of our policies and processes underway, which is being led by Bruce Hodgkinson. We appreciate the time and consideration that our students, staff and broader community have taken as they shared their experiences and feedback with us.
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Conservationists celebrate after seismic blasting project abandoned
Plans for a major seismic blasting project to search for oil and gas west of Bass Strait have been abandoned after the company behind the proposal, TGS, declared it had decided not to go ahead.
The proposed testing area between Victoria’s Otway coast and north-west Tasmania had been scaled back from an initial 75,000 sq km to less than half that before being cancelled.
The news was welcomed by conservation groups and the Greens, which said “immense community pressure” as leading to the decision. More than 30,000 people responded to a call for submissions on the proposal and there were protests in coastal areas.
Greens senator Peter Whish-Wilson said it was a “historic moment” that showed “community pressure works”.
This win belongs to all the people who have rallied hard for years to protect marine ecosystems and avoid irreversible changes to the earth’s climate.
The Australian Marine Conservation Society’s oil and gas campaign manager, Louise Morris, said:
Australians don’t want offshore oil and gas or deadly seismic blasting operations damaging marine life, especially endangered species such as the pygmy blue whale.
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Global cocoa shortage sees chocolate prices soar
A sweet block of chocolate could soon leave a sour taste in shoppers’ mouths at the checkout, with skyrocketing cocoa prices set to reach Australian shores, AAP reports.
A global cocoa shortage stemming from disappointing harvests in West Africa, which sources 70% of the world’s cocoa, is triggering price rises in chocolate, according to a report by agricultural lender Rabobank.
The report said:
Significantly higher chocolate prices will likely hit shelves over the coming months and going into 2025, providing a major challenge for the chocolate sector, which is already battling a longer-term, structural decline in demand.
Commodity prices have hit their highest levels in nearly 50 years as cocoa stocks sunk to their lowest in 22 years, pushing producers and manufacturers to pass on costs to consumers.
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Minister cites pandemic, Ukraine and Gaza conflicts and interest rate rises as factors affecting Metro Tunnel cost blowout
More on the $837m blow out on Victoria’s Metro Tunnel project.
Danny Pearson has blamed global events, the rising cost of construction and interest rates for this latest blow out. He says:
Since 2017, nobody could have predicted a once in 100 year global pandemic. Nobody could have predicted conflict in Gaza and in Ukraine, and nobody could have predicted interest rate spikes. We are just realising what we’ve had to deal with, and what we’ve seen across the world is that there’s been a pressure on projects.
In relation to the Australian eastern seaboard, we’ve seen a 22% increase in building and material and labour costs since 2021 and that’s had an impact on a number of projects in Australia. So if you look at the Metro tunnel in Sydney that saw a $9bn increase in its budget last year, we’ve seen inland rail more than double to $30bn and we’ve seen Snowy Hydro 2.0 more than double to $12bn, so the reality is, it is just costing more to build anything anywhere in the world. And we are facing similar challenges here in Melbourne.
Pearson says he can’t guarantee there won’t be further blowouts. He says:
I cannot guarantee that there won’t be a one in 100 year event next year. I cannot guarantee there won’t be another pandemic next year. I want to be really clear on this. I can’t guarantee those things. What I’m saying to you is here and now we’ve got a investment into this project which will ensure that the project has the resources that it needs to get on and deliver this project in 2025, 12 months ahead of schedule.
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Katy Perry ‘super stoked’ ahead of AFL grand final appearance
Speaking of the AFL, US pop singer Katy Perry will belt out her hit song Roar at Saturday’s grand final – but don’t expect her to barrack for the Lions.
The star of the pre-game entertainment insists she’ll have no special allegiance towards Brisbane over the Sydney Swans when the two interstate teams battle it out at the MCG on Saturday, AAP reports.
“You know, I’m Switzerland,” the performer told reporters at the MCG on Thursday.
What I’m still trying to get over is that Melbourne has 10 teams, and they’re not here!
Perry will perform a string of her biggest hits to the 100,000-strong crowd including I Kissed a Girl with an Australian artist, rumoured to be Tina Arena, in one of her biggest shows since the 2015 Super Bowl.
It will be her second performance at the stadium following her 2020 Women’s Cricket World Cup appearance, which she said was a huge adrenaline rush.
It’ll be almost 10 years since I did something like this in the States, and to be able to do something like this again after so long, that doesn’t always happen for an artist so I’m super stoked.
The American tried her hand at Aussie slang and AFL references in a press conference peppered with “speccy” and “granny” after a run on the grass in heels practising handballs with AFLW stars.
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Why thank you, Rafqa Touma, and what a pleasure it is to be here on the eve of the AFL grand final public holiday! That I will not receive, because I live in New South Wales.
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That is all from me on the blog today. Handing over to Caitlin Cassidy who will roll your news updates into the evening.
Melbourne Metro Tunnel cost blows out by $837m
The Victorian government has announced it will have to spend an extra $837m to complete its Metro Tunnel project by the end of 2025.
The minister for transport infrastructure, Danny Pearson, has just announced the government will provide up to $745m to the project’s builder, the Cross Yarra Partnership, and about $85m to the Metro Tunnel Authority to continue testing and trialling.
He said the builders would be chipping in a “comparable amount”, though he would not provide a figure.
The extra spend brings the total cost of the project to taxpayers to $13.48bn. The project was initially costed at $10.9bn.
Pearson said:
We know from overseas experience, the last 20% of the project represent 80% of the complexity. The 5% of the project represented 20% of the time. So these are very challenging times in terms of doing that testing and trials. But we are so close. We are three stations here with two to go, and this project will be delivered in 2025, 12 months ahead of schedule.
Consisting of two 9km train tunnels under the CBD, the Metro Tunnel will connect the Sunbury line, which runs through Melbourne’s western suburbs, with the Cranbourne and Pakenham lines, in the city’s south-east, taking the pressure off the City Loop.
Five new underground stations have also been created, including Anzac station, near the Shrine of Remembrance, Parkville station, near the University of Melbourne and several major hospitals, and Arden station, a developing area in North Melbourne.
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NSW appoints commissioners to lead community consultation on treaty and truth-telling
The New South Wales government has appointed three commissioners to lead a 12-month consultation with the state’s Aboriginal communities about treaty and truth-telling.
The treaty minister, David Harris, announced former senator Aden Ridgeway, academic Todd Fernando and the Koori Mail general manager, Naomi Moran, would lead the process as part of a two-year appointment.
According to Harris, Aboriginal communities will be asked if they would want to participate in a formal agreement-making process and, if so, what they would want it to look like.
He said:
We get better outcomes when we listen to the needs of Aboriginal people and communities. We must ensure Aboriginal people have a direct say on matters that affect them.
Previous reporting:
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Profit plunges at Star as gamblers stay away
Star Entertainment has warned it is facing “significant near-term liquidity requirements” after disclosing a 71% drop in net profit in financial results lodged today.
The delayed release of its financial year books comes a day after the Australian casino owner told shareholders it had secured a $200m debt facility to help it to continue trading.
Its shares have been suspended since the start of the month over viability concerns.
Star operates casinos in Sydney, the Gold Coast and the newly opened Brisbane casino, Queen’s Wharf, which suffered a massive cost blowout at the same time as gambling tourism fell.
The weak conditions have continued into the new financial year, with Star disclosing in its results it has recorded an earnings loss of $7.7m in July and August.
Last financial year, it posted an underlying net profit result of $12m, down 71%. After taking into account impairment charges, linked to regulatory changes that are forecast to weigh on profits, its result plunged to a $1.69bn loss.
The casino group is in discussions with state governments to renew casino licences in NSW and Queensland, while it also grapples with demands from gambling and financial crime regulatorsthat could result in significant fines, adding more financial pressure.
National anti-corruption watchdog being investigated over decision not to investigate robodebt
The National Anti-Corruption Commission inspector has confirmed she is conducting an investigation into the decision by the commission not to investigate the referrals from the robodebt royal commission.
After receiving “many inquiries … from the media and the public”, the inspector said in a statement:
Between June and August 2024, Nacc provided the inspector with documents the Inspector had requested. On 3 September 2024, the Inspector asked the National Anti-Corruption Commission to provide submissions on a range of specified matters.
The National Anti-Corruption Commission has advised that it anticipates that it will provide those submissions by 21 October 2024.
The inspector will prepare a report upon completion of the investigation.
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Australia part of joint statement calling for Lebanon ceasefire
Australia has signed on to a joint statement about Lebanon.
The statement – which was also signed by the United States, Canada, the European Union, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom and Qatar – says:
The situation between Lebanon and Israel since October 8th, 2023 is intolerable and presents an unacceptable risk of a broader regional escalation. This is in nobody’s interest, neither of the people of Israel nor of the people of Lebanon.
It is time to conclude a diplomatic settlement that enables civilians on both sides of the border to return to their homes in safety.
Diplomacy however cannot succeed amid an escalation of this conflict.
Thus we call for an immediate 21 day ceasefire across the Lebanon-Israel border to provide space for diplomacy towards the conclusion of a diplomatic settlement consistent with [UN security council resolution] 1701, and the implementation of [UN security council resolution] 2735 regarding a ceasefire in Gaza.
We call on all parties, including the Governments of Israel and Lebanon, to endorse the temporary ceasefire immediately consistent with [UN security council resolution] 1701 during this period, and to give a real chance to a diplomatic settlement.
We are then prepared to fully support all diplomatic efforts to conclude an agreement between Lebanon and Israel within this period, building on efforts over the last months, that ends this crisis altogether.
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Hockey says Rudd ‘doing a good job’ working with potential Trump officials
Former prime minister Kevin Rudd is “doing a good job” working with officials who might be in the Trump administration, Hockey told the National Press Club:
I was hoping to get through the National Press Club without mentioning his name, but Kevin Rudd is doing a pretty good job.
He’s doing a good job, actually, and he has worked over the Republicans that will be influential with Trump. But in my view, it doesn’t matter where you’re Liberal, Labor, Green, whatever, Australia first. And everyone, everyone steps up.
Rudd is currently working as ambassador of Australia to the United States.
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Joe Hockey says Trump’s economic policies ‘hugely expansionary’
Donald Trump’s economic policies are like “handing a box of chocolates to a four-year-old”, former treasurer and ambassador to the United States Joe Hockey told the National Press Club.
The comment came after a conversation on the former US president’s “expansionary” economic policies. Hockey said:
You’ll see the US dollar drop most particularly on the Trump because there’s no handbrake. It is singularly the worst election campaign in living memory for anyone that cares about economics. It is ground zero in terms of making promises that are unfunded and probably cannot be delivered. But who knows? I think Donald Trump’s policy platform is absurd in its largess, and I’ve said it to President Trump, he can’t keep spending.
He knows that his policies are not only inflationary but they’re hugely expansionary. It’s like sugar here. It’s handing a box of chocolates to a four-year-old.
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RBA lists China’s woes as one of three ‘vulnerabilities’ for Australia’s financial stability
In the RBA’s financial stability review (see earlier post), the central bank cites “vulnerabilities” that could derail that stability.
Two of them are perhaps obvious, such as “negative surprises” that might throw financial markets into a spin (we can imagine a few of them in the Middle East, for starters), or the more esoteric uncertainties of the digital economy (perhaps cryptic crypto?).
The third, though, involves “imbalances in China’s financial sector”. On-going weakness in that nation’s real estate sector might yet prompt a “further loss of confidence” that could spill over into the global economy.
“The key channels of transmission of financial stress in China to Australia would likely be via increased risk aversion in financial markets, a sharp slowing in global economic activity, lower global commodity prices and reduced Chinese demand for Australian goods and services,” the review said.
Perhaps the treasurer, Jim Chalmers, got an advance copy to read on his flight to Beijing to meet counterparts this week. China has been cutting its interest rates this week, among the latest efforts to revive growth.
Perhaps Chalmers will learn about coming plans to throw money at consumers (as many overseas economists have been calling for to help end China’s economic funk).
There’s no stated mention of risks that might stem from US elections, including the possibility of a second Trump presidency. The next financial stability review, in six months’ time, might look a lot different.
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Dry and sunny weather forecast for AFL grand final
AFL heads – do I have some good news for you.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s official forecast for AFL grand final day in Melbourne is in, and we’re getting warm, sunny spring conditions, baby!
Senior meteorologist Miriam Bradbury said after a cold morning on Friday it will be dry and mostly sunny during the afternoon’s grand final parade, with maximum temperatures reaching the mid to high teens.
Warmer weather is expected in Melbourne on Saturday, with temperatures reaching the low to mid 20s for the opening bounce.
These fine match-day conditions are a result of a high pressure system moving across Victoria, bringing clear skies and moderate northerly winds.
There is a high chance of showers developing on Sunday, increasing in the afternoon as another cold front sweeps across Victoria from the west.
If the temperature reaches the forecast 23C on Saturday, this year’s grand final will rank among the warmest 20 VFL/AFL deciders. Nevertheless, it falls well short of last year’s grand final which was a balmy 29.7C day. (As a Collingwood supporter who was at the MCG, I remember it well.)
The last time these two teams met in a grand final, then as Fitzroy and South Melbourne in 1899, the game was on a day with steady rain and a maximum temperature of just 14.3 degrees. Fitzroy – now Brisbane – won by a single point, so let’s see who comes out on top in warmer weather.
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Hockey says US election ‘hard to read’
Hockey says Trump is “very competitive” in the race to the White House, while noting Kamala Harris is “winning the enthusiasm battle”.
Asked to pick a winner in the US election, Hockey says “you’d be a fool to call it now” but Hillary Clinton lost the election despite winning the popular vote.
There’s been five elections in the US where … you win the popular vote but you don’t win the electoral college. And, at the moment, there are a few factors at play.
Harris must win by – in my view – 2.5% … the second thing is it’s really hard to read if everyone that voted for Biden in 2020 is going to vote for Harris again.
There’s no doubt she’s winning the enthusiasm battle but it’s really hard to read and she’s not only the first woman running for president from California – don’t underestimate how significant it is that it’s California – but she’s also the first woman of colour running and there is still an element in the United States that is both misogynistic and racist and, because of voluntary voting, it’s really hard to work out what the turnout is going to be.
Hockey says he’s not a “definite [call for] Trump” but Trump is very competitive.
I think out of every 100 people voting for Trump, four to five would not admit it. They’re just going to do it. And polls have just been consistently wrong about Trump. Take Wisconsin. They underestimated Trump’s vote by 7% in 2016 and they underestimated by 5% in 2020.
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Joe Hockey addresses National Press Club
Meanwhile, former treasurer and ambassador to the United States Joe Hockey is appearing at the National Press Club for the first time in some years, as America’s presidential race continues to heat up.
Asked whether the upcoming election will mark the end to bitterness on opposing sides of politics in the states, Hockey says America’s division is “primarily about policy, not personality”.
[At] the Republican convention, it was clear to me that there wasn’t a deep lifelong abiding affection for Donald Trump from the delegates. What they were doing was fighting for what they believed to be the policies that mattered to them – lower taxes, less regulation, stronger borders, you know, a greater focus on America first.
And at the Democratic convention … I had four days at the Republican Convention talking about Trump and then I had four days at the Democratic convention talking about Trump. I was a bit Trumped-out by that stage.
Hockey says the US isn’t divided now more than ever – citing 1968, when Robert Kennedy and Martin Luther King were assassinated.
George Bush said to me, he said he remembers it vividly and he said it was far worse. Nineteen American cities on fire over race. And every night on TV, they were losing people at Vietnam … he said it [was] far worse and the divisions in America were far deeper.
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Nine protesters to face court after allegedly stopping coal train near Newcastle
In New South Wales, nine protesters will face court today after allegedly stopping a coal train near Newcastle in opposition to the federal government’s approval of three new mining projects.
Rising Tide, the group behind the action, said on social media the mines would “turbo charge the climate crisis with 1.5bn tonnes of emissions”.
Our team of supporters is standing by at the Newcastle Court House.
— RisingTideAustralia (@RisingTideAus) September 26, 2024
9 Rising Tiders were arrested yesterday for stopping a coal train and are awaiting their hearing today.
Stay tuned for updates! pic.twitter.com/edmWBCj0jP
In a statement, NSW police confirmed about 10am Wednesday, they were called to a rail corridor in Sandgate after reports of an unauthorised protest.
Officers attended and arrested four men aged between 24 and 69 and five women aged between 18 and 66.
They were taken to Newcastle police station and were all charged with cause obstruction to railway locomotive or rolling stock, enter enclosed non-agricultural lands with a serious safety risk, and enter enclosed land not prescribed premises without a lawful excuse.
All were refused bail to appear before Newcastle local court today.
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Max Chandler-Mather says Labor ‘have come to the table’ on housing
The Greens’ housing spokesperson, Max Chandler-Mather, has signalled the party will push hard for capital gains tax reform, repeating the phrase “phase out negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount” 15 times in a single press conference in Brisbane.
The government acknowledged yesterday that treasury was modelling negative gearing changes.
The Greens took a policy of gradually phasing out currently negatively geared houses to the 2022 election.
We’ve said to the prime minister and to Labor privately and publicly we’re ready to negotiate, and we recognise we won’t get everything that we want, but we do expect some movement on negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount.
What that looks like is ultimately up to negotiations with the government, but we certainly won’t accept no changes to the two biggest tax handouts to property investors that are turbocharging house prices and denying millions of renters the chance to buy a home.
Chandler-Mather said the government had changed its tune on negotiating with the party.
At first, they said it was impossible, they were not going to move on any of the areas that the Greens wanted movement on.
Now we find out that Labor is asking Treasury to model one of the solutions that the Greens have proposed, phasing out negative gearing in the capital gains tax discount. The day after that, we find out Labor MPs and Liberal MPs have also supported changes to negative gearing in the capital gains tax discount … let’s think about what might happen in the next two months, now that Labor have to come to the table.
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And here is Katy Perry holding the AFL premiership cup.
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Pain at the pump, Australians hit by fuel price hikes
A record gap between the cheapest and most expensive petrol stations has been revealed, with motorists in Australia’s largest cities hit with higher prices.
New research released by the NRMA today showed the nation’s three largest cities have been exposed to price cycles of four to seven weeks from 2018 to 2024.
The largest gap in Sydney between the cheapest and most expensive petrol stations came at the end of August, hitting 59.2c a litre.
Motorists heading to the bowser that day could have saved $29.60 for a tank had they been provided real-time data.
Perth and Adelaide had cycles of between seven and 17 days.
Of the six price cycles in Sydney this year, the average price for unleaded at the high mark was 212.2c a litre.
Almost half of the city’s petrol stations charged the maximum price, also a record.
At the top of the June cycle, six in 10 servos were charging 229.9c a litre.
The lowest price on average during that cycle was 182.3c a litre, marking an almost 30c difference.
– Australian Associated Press
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More mortgage holders struggling to meet repayments, RBA stability report says
The Reserve Bank has just released its half-yearly Financial Stability Review, and its findings look at first glance to be similar to its report in March.
Recall that earlier this week, the governor, Michele Bullock, made it clear the RBA wanted to see more proof inflation was under control before its board would cut its interest rate.
A big jump in unemployment (unlikely given the relative abundance of job openings, see earlier post) or a lot of financial pain at the household or business level might also convince the central bank that it might need to cut borrowing costs.
However, today’s review suggests most borrowers are coping so far.
“Pressures from high inflation and restrictive monetary policy continue to be felt across the Australian community, but the share of borrowers experiencing severe financial stress remains small,” it found.
Mortgage arrears are on the rise but remain below (for now) pre-Covid levels.
@RBAInfo has released its half-year financial stability review, and finds more borrowers fell behind on repayments. However, numbers 'experiencing severe financial stress remains small'. Some of the rise in loan arrears is "catch-up" and the total remains below pre-Covid levels. pic.twitter.com/niGMXdGFRf
— @phannam@mastodon.green (@p_hannam) September 26, 2024
One notable point is that “mortgagors tend to be more resilient to a deterioration in the labour market than other households”, the RBA said. Apparently such borrowers are less likely to lose their jobs or hours than other households – at least historically.
Businesses, too, are adjusting to higher interest rates with profit margins “around the level recorded over the decade prior to the pandemic”, the RBA said. That said, hospitality and some other sectors exposed to weak consumer demand are doing it tougher than others.
Of course, should interest rates remain relatively high for a long while yet, those sunny perspectives might get a bit cloudier.
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Job vacancies extend their retreat but remain well above pre-Covid levels
As expected, job vacancies have continued to shrink, dropping 5.2% in August from three months earlier to 329,900, the ABS has just reported. It was the ninth quarter in a row of falls.
Job vacancies continued to retreat, according to the @ABSStats' latest quarterly update. The 5.2% drop in the three months to August still leaves vacancies about 45% higher than pre-Covid times. pic.twitter.com/Vh5bG3DaVp
— @phannam@mastodon.green (@p_hannam) September 26, 2024
For all the chatter in some quarters that the public sector was on a hiring binge, vacancies in government roles fell 7.5% to 35,800.
The private sector, meanwhile, had openings for 294,100 jobs, a drop of 4.9% from May.
While not heading in the right direction (unless you’re a twitchy Reserve Bank board member), it’s worth noting that job vacancies remain about 45% higher, or 102,000 positions, than pre-Covid times.
In August, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, with the economy adding about 47,500 jobs. On today’s job vacancy numbers, that jobless rate probably isn’t about to soar.
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‘The worst is yet to come’: cocoa crisis causes soaring prices
Cocoa commodity prices have hit their highest levels in nearly 50 years, a new report by Rabobank’s RaboResearch says.
“Skyrocketing” cocoa prices are “putting strong pressure on chocolate producers around the globe, who will likely pass on the burden to consumers”.
A “cocoa crisis” is triggering the price increases. There has been a 14.2% drop in global cocoa production for the 2023/24 season, causing a 462,000 metric ton shortage and the lowest cocoa stocks in 22 years.
RaboResearch analyst Paul Joules said:
Since January 2023, cocoa futures have shattered the calm of their previous trading range, peaking at nearly USD 12,000 per metric ton in the first half of 2024.
This dramatic increase, fuelled by a global cocoa shortage, is primarily due to a disappointing harvest in West Africa, the source of 70 per cent of the world’s cocoa.
And “the worst is yet to come” as companies hedge prices and supply contracts up to a year in advance. The report anticipates higher chocolate prices will hit shelves over the coming months and going into 2025:
… providing a major challenge for the chocolate sector, which is already battling a longer-term, structural decline in demand.
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Labor not running candidates at three upcoming byelections
The New South Wales premier, Chris Minns, has announced that the Labor party would not be running any candidates at three upcoming byelections.
Labor was not expected to run in Pittwater, nor Hornsby, but many had hoped it would contest former premier Dominic Perrottet’s seat of Epping after reducing the margin at the 2023 election.
Speaking at a press conference on Thursday, Minns said:
If I can be candid about it, it would be very difficult for us to win because we have to put a lot of time and effort and resources into campaigns that we would be unlikely to prevail in and a swing against [us] would be a massive distraction.
He said Labor had never held Epping and that “midterm is generally a swing against incumbent governments” so it was not worth contesting.
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Steven Miles refuses to confirm or deny the government’s considering rent control
Meanwhile, the Queensland premier, Steven Miles, was also forced to respond to reports the government is considering an ACT-style rent control system.
Canberra caps rents at 110% of inflation.
Miles neither confirmed nor denied a report from Channel Nine that his government was considering a similar policy.
“I’m not going to get into the business of ruling in or out what we will announce between now and the election, because then you might just move on to the next thing and the next thing and, before you know it, we wouldn’t have announcements to make between now and the election,” he said.
In the press conference, Miles referred media to statements he made earlier this year that the evidence around rent control is that “it could have the perverse effect of making the system worse”.
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Queensland premier denies reports government will bail out Star Casinos
The Queensland premier, Steven Miles, has denied reports the government has reached a deal to bail out Star Casinos.
The state government has been negotiating a tax agreement to help the troubled gambling firm in recent weeks. The Financial Review reported this morning that a $60m deal had been done.
But Miles said at a press conference this morning that negotiations had broken down in the past week.
“There’ll be no consideration of any kind of arrangement, while their executives insist on paying themselves performance bonuses,” Miles said.
He said the state won’t become a lender for the company either.
There’s been no agreement whatsoever reached there, and we’re unlikely to reach one. Frankly, I find it astounding that they would be asking the state to defer taxes, to delay the payment of taxes, while paying themselves performance bonuses. We’re going to put the taxpayers of Queensland ahead of those executives.
It has been previously reported that the state government is considering deferring about $300m in taxes, in return for interest payments, to help the company open its new Brisbane casino at Queens’ Wharf.
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More women in New South Wales will have easier access to the oral contraceptive pill as a trial designed to reduce pressure on the state’s healthcare system becomes permanent.
Under the changes, from Saturday women will be able to get a resupply of their pill from a certified pharmacist without needing to go back to the doctor for a new prescription – as long as they have been taking the medication for two years.
Read the full story from Tamsin Rose here:
Qantas engineers start industrial action over pay fight
Qantas travellers have been put on alert for flight disruptions as engineers stage a fortnight of industrial action heading into football grand finals.
The action kicked off in Melbourne this morning and will spread around the nation in coming days.
Read more here:
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Star secures bailout and prepares to lodge financial accounts
Embattled casino operator Star Entertainment Group says its lenders have agreed to provide a new debt facility of up to $200m, which it can start drawing on from the end of October.
Shares in Star, which owns casinos in Sydney, the Gold Coast and Brisbane, have been suspended since the start of the month after it failed to lodge its financial results amid concerns over its viability.
The new debt facility should allow Star to publish its financial accounts today, although it must still deal with demands from gambling and financial crime regulators that could result in significant fines.
The bailout will give Star’s corporate lenders security over various assets, according to details released late on Wednesday. It will only be able to access the second tranche of the debt facility if it meets various conditions.
Its precarious financial position has overshadowed the company’s recentopening of a $3.6bn project in Brisbane’s city centre. Star is in talks with the Queensland government over tax relief.
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Flights from Melbourne airport delayed and cancelled as Qantas engineers stage walkout
A Qantas flight to the Gold Coast from Melbourne airport is “delayed due to operational requirements”. A later flight to Adelaide is “cancelled due to engineering requirements”.
The notifications, seen on a departures board in Melbourne airport, come as hundreds of Qantas engineers stage a walkout in Melbourne today over pay and conditions.
A Qantas spokesperson has said it put contingency plans in place and believed customers would not be affected.
The strike is part of industrial action that is expected to take place at major airports across Australia over the next two weeks. The Qantas Engineers’ Alliance, which is organising the action, said the strike was “highly likely” to affect flights.
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In breaking news, Kylie Minogue has added three new dates to her Australia tour.
“I just can’t get enough of you Australia!! 3 new tour dates added,” she posted on X.
“Sooooo looking forward to this!”
I just can’t get enough of you Australia!! 3 new tour dates added ✨ Sooooo looking forward to this! https://t.co/QlfkD592gV pic.twitter.com/kCnxCVXpV0
— Kylie Minogue (@kylieminogue) September 25, 2024
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For more on the push by a group of nations to to take the Taliban to international court (which Penny Wong spoke about this morning), read Patrick Wintor’s article here:
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PM says asked if Labor ‘going to squib on gambling reform’
Asked whether “you’re going to squib on gambling reform” as the AFL grand final approaches, Albanese says the problem is “problem gambling”:
We want to act against problem gambling. We are acting. We’ve got our BetStop program. We’ve already seen a reduction in advertising. We’ve changed the designation that’s there. We’ve banned credit cards for use of online. We’ve taken a range of action, more action in our two years than has ever been taken by any government. We’re examining further proposals and we will, when we’ve finished those consultations, make an appropriate policy announcement.
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Albanese says ‘Treasury don’t need to be directed’ to examine housing policies
Anthony Albanese says the Treasury “doesn’t need to be directed” when asked who requested analysis on negative gearing be brought to the government.
He says:
Treasury don’t need to be directed. They’re not schoolchildren with teachers up the front of the class, telling them what to do. I want a public service that looks at ideas, that looks at policy … And the public service, whether it’s my Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet or other departments, have units within them that examine policy, and there’s nothing unusual about that. There’s nothing special about it.
And I, frankly, can’t see why it’s an issue at all that, you know, the suggestion is – I haven’t seen anything from Treasury, I make that point – but the suggestion is that they’d look at housing policy or look at tax policy or look at our current account deficit or look at other things is, to my mind, just what the public service does.
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Asked if “negative gearing has been equitable for all Australians,” Albanese says:
Well, that’s the question of whether it’s contributing to supply or not. For many people, of course, if you didn’t have investment in housing, you wouldn’t have private rentals, you would have less supply and less construction, is the concern which is there.
Our build-to-rent-scheme, for example, which will provide incentives through the tax system for more construction of housing, has been blocked in the Senate. The Greens say it’s because developers will benefit. I don’t know who they think builds medium-density housing, if not developers.
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PM says his government isn't considering taking negative gearing or capital gains tax reform to next election
Anthony Albanese has confirmed his government is not considering taking negative gearing reform or capital gains tax reform to the next election.
Albanese was asked: “Can we just get some clarity for our viewers. Are you considering taking negative gearing reform and capital gains tax reform to the next election?”
Albanese: “No, we’re not.”
He says his government is focused on “planning for our Homes for Australia policy” and “putting that downward pressure on inflation”.
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Albanese asked about negative gearing
The prime minister has moved on to talk negative gearing. Asked where he sits on potential reform, Anthony Albanese says his government’s plans to improve housing supply has been blocked “in this No-alition”:
My view is that the key to housing policy is supply, and that has been the objective of our $32bn Homes for Australia Plan, more public housing, more build-to-rent, that’s stuck in the Senate, for private rentals, more home ownership. That’s also stuck in the Senate with our Help to Buy Scheme being blocked by the Liberals and the Greens in this No-alition.
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Anthony Albanese urges Australian citizens in Lebanon to leave
Jumping from Penny Wong, who was live from New York a moment ago, to the prime minister, Anthony Albanese, currently speaking to ABC News Breakfast.
Asked if Australia has “a contingency plan in place if there’s an all-out war in the region”, Albanese again urges Australians in Lebanon to leave. He says:
We’ve been planning for some time but we’ve also been saying to our citizens, who are there in Lebanon – some of whom have recently travelled to Lebanon – that they should return home by commercial aircraft while that is available.
The second thing I’d say is to repeat the foreign minister’s call for a ceasefire. We need for that to occur both in Gaza as well as in Lebanon. We need the conflict not to continue to escalate, we need it to de-escalate. We need the hostages released. We need a ceasefire that’s sustainable there and we need to move towards a long-term solution as well of a two-state solution there in the Middle East.
This is a conflict that’s gone on for a long period of time, that has been very intense since the October 7 atrocities that occurred by Hamas. Hamas can’t have a role in the future of Gaza. But we sincerely want to see that conflict come to an end, and both Israelis and Palestinians – and, of course, the people of Lebanon – be able to live in peace and security with stability.
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Wong joins push to 'hold Taliban to account' under international law
The foreign affairs minister, Penny Wong, has joined an international push “to hold the Taliban to account” under the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination Against Women.
Wong says:
We know the women and girls of Afghanistan are effectively being erased from public life by the various edicts the Taliban … have issued.
The steps we are taking with Germany, Canada and the Netherlands are unprecedented. We are intending to use the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination Against Women, to which Afghanistan is a party, to take action.
The Taliban have demonstrated their contempt for human rights and fundamental freedoms of women and girls, and they have engaged in a campaign of sustained and systematic oppression.
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‘Risk Beirut airport may be closed’: Wong
Penny Wong has again urged Australians in Lebanon to leave.
Speaking live from New York, she says:
If I can … say again to the Australian Lebanese community. This is a deeply distressing situation for so many of you. I know that there are many Australians in Lebanon. There are many Australians who have relatives, family and friends in Lebanon. I again urge Australians in Lebanon to leave now. There are flight cancelations and disruptions, and there is a risk that Beirut airport may close for an extended period of time.
Please do not wait for a preferred route. Please take the first option you can to leave. We continue to monitor the situation closely. We have been working with partners on contingency plans now for many months but I again say to anyone who any Australian who is in Lebanon: please leave now.
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'Need for a ceasefire in Lebanon': Wong
The foreign affairs minister, Penny Wong, is speaking live to press from New York.
She urges “all parties should show restraint,” as Israel’s intense bombing campaign inside Lebanon stretches into a third day.
She says:
Lebanese civilians cannot be made to pay the price of defeating Hezbollah, so all parties should show restraint, de escalate and comply with UN security council resolutions. The global community has made clear that this destructive cycle must stop.
What has happened in recent days only makes an immediate ceasefire in Gaza even more urgent. You would have heard me say this before, and I say it again, Lebanon cannot become the next Gaza.
Wong says she has met with her UK counterpart, David Lammy, and discussed a “shared view that there is a need for a ceasefire in Lebanon”.
I know that this is something that will be discussed by international partners and the international community, including the security council this evening.
Lebanese Australians have condemned the governments “inaction” on the escalating violence and incursion. Read more from Mostafa Rachwani here:
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Good morning! I’ll be rolling your live blog updates today. If there is anything you don’t want us to miss, shoot it my way on X (Twitter) @At_Raf_
Lebanese Australians have watched on in horror as Israeli attacks have continued on their mother country, with many fearing for the safety of relatives they left behind.
“People feel helpless and exhausted, we are all sitting around helplessly watching … our country, our villages and homes, bombed into oblivion,” Sousan Ghecham, who lives in Sydney, says.
Many are traumatised by the attacks on a land they maintain strong ties with, they tell Mostafa Rachwani, and there is also frustration with the government for failing to hold Israel to account.
Housing affordability worsens
There are more Australian suburbs than ever with a median home value of $1m or more, according to new data.
New CoreLogic data from August shows 29.3% out of 4,772 suburbs surveyed are now in the “million-dollar club”, with an additional 218 suburbs joining the group.
The figure has risen from a previous market peak of 26.9% in April 2022 – while at the onset of the Covid pandemic 14.3% of suburbs had a median home value of $1m or more.
Sydney dominates the country’s million-dollar suburbs, comprising almost 40% of the 1,397 suburbs with houses and apartments with a seven-figure median value.
In both Sydney and Brisbane, 46 suburbs rose above the $1m median value mark. Perth came in third position, followed by regional Queensland.
CoreLogic economist Kaytlin Ezzy said the 7.1% increase in national dwelling values over the past year had added the equivalent of about $53,000 to the national median.
But rising house values were accompanied by worsening affordability.
“Despite the increase in the number of million-dollar markets, borrowers are likely to be dedicating more of their income towards servicing their mortgage”, she said.
“With an $800,000 loan balance (assuming a 20% deposit) and the current average variable mortgage rate for new owner- occupiers (6.28%), a household would need an annual income close to $200,000 to keep repayments on a $1m home under 30% of their income. This marks an increase from the around $125,000 needed prior to the first interest rate hike [in May 2022].”
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Qantas passengers told to expect ‘busy period’
Qantas passengers have been warned to expect a “busy period” today, with some advised to swap to earlier flights out of Melbourne as a precaution as engineers go on strike.
The protected industrial action at Melbourne airport is by aircraft maintenance engineers teams. There are about 1,100 employees covered by these agreements, out of 2,500 engineers across Qantas.
Qantas has been notified of work stoppages in Melbourne today and on Monday 30 September, Wednesday 2 October and Friday 4 October around the country.
The union wants a 5% pay rise per year plus 15% in the first year.
The Qantas Engineers’ Alliance said the strike was “highly likely” to affect flights in all major capitals.
A Qantas spokesperson has said it put contingency plans in place and believed customers would not be affected.
However Guardian Australia has seen a message that Qantas sent to travellers out of Melbourne saying the airline was “anticipating a busy period which may affect your flight”, and advising that “to help you avoid a possible delay, we’re offering the option to change to an earlier flight, free of charge”.
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Our economics columnist Greg Jericho has assembled out some superb graphics to illustrate how supermarkets have helped to keep inflation high and prolong the cost of living crisis.
The “competition” on the price of Coke and Pepsi is a great example, he says, and shows how they ensure they always have those products available at a discount, which is obviously bad news for independents.
Here’s Greg’s column:
But there is apparently one way shoppers can beat the big two, according to Choice, which has a survey today showing that Aldi shoppers save at least $15 on a basket of essential items.
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Wong appeals to Israel for Zomi Frankcom audio
The foreign affairs minister, Penny Wong, has asked the Israeli government to “respond positively” to requests from Zomi Frankcom’s family to release audio related to the fatal strikes on her aid convoy in Gaza.
The former Australian defence force chief Mark Binskin, who prepared a report for the Australian government about the killing of Frankcom and six World Central Kitchen colleagues in Israeli drone strikes in Gaza on 1 April, said Israeli authorities had allowed him to view 90 minutes of drone footage of the convoy and subsequent strikes. But Binskin noted in his final report that this was “without audio”.
Frankcom’s brother Mal told the ABC’s 7.30 program last month that he regarded the unheard audio as “another missing piece of the puzzle” because it was important to understand “the state of mind of the people making the decisions”. Mal Frankcom told 7.30 at the time:
I asked him [Binskin] about that and he said that he was told that it was in Hebrew and it wouldn’t be understood.
Wong joined the ABC’s 7.30 program from New York last night and was asked about the request for audio to be released. Wong said:
The family has called for that and I have expressed that to the Israeli government and I have expressed the view that, in the circumstances … we would seek that the Israeli government respond positively to Zomi Frankcom’s family’s requests.
Asked whether she had had any response from the Israeli side about that audio, Wong said:
Not at my level, as yet, no.
The deputy leader of the Greens, Mehreen Faruqi, said in a letter to Wong earlier this month that it was “incumbent on you to do what is necessary to obtain this audio evidence”.
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Welcome
Good morning and welcome to our live news blog. I’m Martin Farrer and I’m going to run through some of the best overnight stories before Rafqa Touma comes along.
Some Labor MPs say the government should not be afraid of considering reforms to negative gearing, with several caucus members saying they were “open” to fresh and bolder responses to the housing crisis. The debate over the possible reform of negative gearing – a plan rejected by voters when it was part of Labor’s manifesto at the 2019 election – has been reignited in recent weeks amid the standoff over the government’s housing bills. The thoughts of Labor MPs come as a report shows there are more Australian suburbs than ever with a median home value of $1m or more, according to new data.
Thousands of travellers face flight disruption today when hundreds of Qantas engineers stage a walkout in Melbourne over pay and conditions, according to media reports. The strike is part of industrial action that is expected to take place at major airports across Australia over the next two weeks. The Qantas Engineers’ Alliance, which is organising the action, said the strike was “highly likely” to affect flights but the airline said it had contingencies in place. More developments coming up.
The foreign affairs minister, Penny Wong, has asked the Israeli government to “respond positively” to requests from Zomi Frankcom’s family to release audio related to the fatal strikes on her aid convoy in Gaza. She told ABC’s 7.30 last night that she had passed on the family’s requests but had not received any response so far “at her level”. And as Israeli attacks continue on Lebanon, we have been speaking to Lebanese Australians about the helplessness and despair they feel while their country is under attack. More coming up on both these stories.
