Australia is unprepared for the health burden of climate change, and our lack of a national climate change and health adaptation plan has put Australians' lives at risk, according to a report.
The analysis, published today in the Medical Journal of Australia, also states the nation's transition to renewables is "unacceptably slow".
"Australia's greatest threat, including to the health of its people, is not from beyond its borders — it is from within," states the report, which was written by 20 researchers in Australia, New Zealand and the UK.
It echoes conclusions from a larger global report by 99 international authors, which "shows the direst findings yet" when it comes to the health consequences of the world's fossil fuel dependence.
The global report, also published today in The Lancet, said there was a "glimmer of hope", but current efforts from governments and industry wouldn't stop a "catastrophic" rise in global warming, which is forecast to cause more intense and frequent extreme weather, heatwave exposure, climate-related food insecurity, and infectious diseases.
"It sends an alarming message that population health is clearly compromised by our global fossil fuel addiction," says Celia McMichael, a researcher in climate-change-related human migration at the University of Melbourne, and co-author of both reports.
"But there is still a positive message that if we tackle climate change, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions and transition to net zero emissions, that represents an enormous health opportunity."
We're already seeing impacts of climate events
The reports, which are part of the Lancet's annual Countdown series, examine a range of "indicators" that monitor how well (or not) various aspects of health are tracking under a changing climate.
They also assess factors such as progress in mitigation and adaptation plans by governments and industry.
Macquarie University environmental health researcher Paul Beggs has co-chaired the Australian Countdown report since the first was published in 2018.
"The events of the past couple of years have really highlighted Australia's vulnerability to health and climate change, starting with the heat waves and bushfires at the end of 2019 and the beginning of 2020, which were unprecedented," Dr Beggs said.
"And more recently, from last year throughout this year, we've had torrential rains and flooding, which is again, unprecedented."
Such rains can exacerbate transmission of diseases such as Japanese encephalitis, which may rear its head again in southern states thanks to the wet summer forecast.
"We're now seeing these fairly regular weather events and climate events that we've not seen before," Dr Beggs said.
And their health effects can extend beyond deaths and hospitalisations that occur during the climate event.
Take extreme heat.
"Extreme heat kills more people than all natural disasters combined," said report co-author and University of Sydney heat researcher Ollie Jay.
The latest Australian Countdown report found exposure to extreme heat has, on average, increased over the past 20 years, and is already harming vulnerable groups, such as over-65s and people with underlying conditions.
But it also showed how higher temperatures can affect anyone wanting to exercise or play sport outside.
Data from 2017-21 showed even people who walked for leisure were, on average, exposed to 34 additional hours of moderate heat stress risk each year, and 20 more hours of high heat stress risk, compared to the early 1990s.
The number of hours they experienced above the extreme heat stress risk threshold — at a point when activities should be stopped — doubled from around 10 to 20 hours per year.
Other global crises are making it worse
Both Australian and global Countdown reports paint a picture of a future where concurrent crises multiply climate change's health burden.
Extreme weather, which has destabilised food production and supply chain systems, plus the COVID-19 pandemic, meant up to 161 million more people faced undernutrition in 2020 compared to 2019.
The cost-of-living crisis and Russia's invasion of Ukraine means another 13 million people will face hunger this year.
The health effects of climate change will be felt inequitably — not just around the world, but also within Australia, with rural and regional areas feeling it the most, said Kathryn Bowen, a climate and global health researcher at the University of Melbourne.
A health sector that can deal with climate-related issues, both in response and prevention, is therefore needed, but Australia's not there yet.
"We don't invest nearly enough to make sure our communities are healthy and have access to what we call the determinants of health: education, food security, water security, and essential services like electricity and so on," Professor Bowen said.
"Food and water security will be particularly vulnerable to climate impacts.
"And we're going to continue to see threats to both food and water security across the country, and it's often the case that it's those people with limited resources that will feel the brunt of it."
Australia should take a 'principled stance'
Only swiftly transitioning from fossil fuels to renewable or zero-carbon energy will turn the tide, the Countdown reports conclude.
These sentiments mirror the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which earlier this year warned the window to save ourselves from climate change's effects was "rapidly closing" and would require "transformational change" in all regions and sectors.
Yet, according to the global Countdown report, an analysis of 15 of the world's biggest oil and gas companies found they will "exceed their share of emissions consistent with 1.5 degrees of global heating by 37 per cent in 2030 and 103 per cent in 2040", overshooting the Paris Agreement goals.
And while both Countdown reports acknowledge that renewables uptake is higher than it's ever been — currently supplying 2.2 per cent of the total global energy supply — it's not enough.
The Australian government is yet to sign up to an international declaration to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, known as the Alliance for Transformative Action on Climate and Health.
Australia is the world’s 14th-highest emitter. Our share of total global emissions from burning fossil fuels, when taking exports and imports into account, is around 3.3 per cent.
"Australia is out on a limb at the moment," Dr Beggs said.
"We really need to accelerate [our transition from fossil fuels to renewables] rapidly by 2030 to go from our present position of being behind to catching up with others and hopefully, becoming a leader in this whole area."
While there's no national plan to address climate change and health yet, momentum is building at the state level. For instance, Victoria and Queensland recently published their own strategies.
And Australia as a whole can and should take a principled stance against fossil fuel use, Professor Bowen said.
"We know the harms it creates to communities, human health and wellbeing.
"We have a real opportunity as a country to demonstrate leadership, not to just fellow Australians, but particularly to our region, and the world."
