The most interesting perspective from Chargers’ running back Austin Ekeler in his presser was an honest analysis of where top running backs stand in the NFL.
What really is going on that I was frustrated about was our top three guys getting franchise tagged and really capping the market with Saquon (Barkley), Josh (Jacobs), and Tony (Pollard). That’s really what’s frustrated me about what’s going on in our current situation.
The franchise tag keeps its status as the NFL owners’ favorite anti-free market weapon to restrict player mobility and choice. As running back salaries continue to stagnate in comparison to other positions in the league, team executives know they have a tool to effectively force one-year deals on players during their primes. With the current collective bargaining agreement not expiring until 2030, the tag is here to stay for quite some time.
Barkley and Jacobs have not yet signed their tags while Pollard has. Ultimately, all three players will come to the reality that they have two options. Play on the tag to bet on yourself or take a deal that won’t come close to resetting the market.
Ekeler further commented on the nature of being a running back in the modern NFL:
Us as running backs, sure people say we get hurt, everyone gets hurt in the NFL. But just as far as players in general, we only have a certain amount of time to play this game. And to say, ‘nope, you’re gonna have to risk it all again on a one year guaranteed contract’ and to tell somebody that, put them in that situation, and not give them a choice…it’s just tough for me to accept, even though it is the way it is.
When asked about what running backs could collectively do about their current situation, Ekeler decided to not speak for the collective but suggested that there are some ideas being talked about in league circles.
While Ekeler differentiated his position from the players that have been tagged in terms of functionality, he ultimately is in a similar situation to some of his peers that he mentioned: bet on yourself for one year and hope your health and production hold up.
However, the fruit-bearing promise of “next year’s free agency” simply isn’t a reality for running backs anymore. As always, the franchise tag is a theoretical option the Chargers could use to stop Ekeler from hitting free agency at all next year. Considering their salary cap situation, they’re unlikely to exercise that option. Still, it’s worth pointing out that Los Angeles has the power to stop him from hitting free agency altogether.
But OK, let’s say Ekeler does hit free agency since it is likelier. In 2019, Le’Veon Bell was the last running back free agent to receive a contract in excess of $10 million per season when he signed with the Jets. The external free agent running back market since then has crashed. Miles Sanders was the top prize in running back free agency this March and he received just $200K more in average annual value than the $6.13 million Ekeler signed for three years ago.
Of course, most running backs in their prime don’t necessarily get to hit free agency due to the tags or extensions. But another telling statistic again is the lack of market growth in average annual value within recent seasons for the position.
Ever since Ezekiel Elliott signed his $90 million extension with Dallas in 2019, only one running back has topped his $15 million AAV figure from that contract. That would be Christian McCaffrey from his four-year, $64 million contract extension with Carolina in 2020. Think of all of the wide receivers and quarterbacks that have reset the market in the last three off-seasons. The lack of market growth is telling of what the NFL thinks of the position.
Hopefully, Ekeler is able to get the contract he wants after a productive 2023 campaign with the Chargers. But the NFL owners have indicated in a rather blunt way that they will not pay a running back top dollar anymore. Perhaps the market will rebound in a cyclic way for the position at some point, but the passing revolution of the last decade probably indicates otherwise.
