As Australia prepares to spend a reasonable chunk of its GDP on nuclear-propelled submarines, there is debate over whether the alliance underpinning that deal will undercut New Zealand's own defence relationships
A $400 billion deal for the US and UK to provide Australia with nuclear-powered submarines won’t lead to New Zealand being shut out of defence discussions in the region, a senior American official says.
However, a foreign policy expert has warned our country risks being left on the sidelines of critical discussions about artificial intelligence and other future technologies if it can't find a way into the trilateral Aukus alliance.
On Tuesday, the leaders of Australia, the United States and the United Kingdom gathered in San Diego to reveal the specifics of the first project under Aukus - the development of nuclear-powered submarines for Australian use.
READ MORE: * Aukus deal's awkwardness for New Zealand * After APEC, where to on China? * A torpedo to European security
In 2023, Australia will receive the first of three second-hand Virginia class submarines, with production of new British-American hybrid vessels beginning in 2042.
The Australian government has estimated the nuclear-powered submarines will cost up to AU$368 billion (or NZ$394 billion) to develop and operate - equivalent to an average of 0.15 percent of annual GDP over the project’s 30-year period.
While the submarines have served as the centrepiece of Aukus, a second “pillar” of the alliance will focus on alternative capabilities including quantum technologies, artificial intelligence and electronic warfare.
At an online briefing for international journalists, Daniel Kritenbrink, the US State Department’s assistant secretary for the Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs, described Aukus as “a concrete commitment to the Indo-Pacific region…to ensure continued stability and prosperity in the region and across the globe”.
“If you look at the past two years, I think that the United States of America has upped our engagement with and investments in the Indo-Pacific across the board, including in our many partnerships and including with, of course, our New Zealand partners as well.” - Daniel Kritenbrink, US State Department
“Aukus is binding our partners in Europe and Asia together, recognising that our world is increasingly interconnected and the fate of all of the world’s regions are intertwined.”
Asked by Newsroom whether the scale of the Aukus deal would lead to smaller partners like New Zealand being shut out of foreign policy and defence discussions, Kritenbrink said the US was trying to build “a latticework of relationships” in the Indo-Pacific rather than viewing the region through an exclusive lens.
“If you look at the past two years, I think that the United States of America has upped our engagement with and investments in the Indo-Pacific across the board, including in our many partnerships and including with, of course, our New Zealand partners as well.”
On whether New Zealand and other countries opposed to nuclear technology could eventually be included in the non-nuclear aspects of the alliance, US National Security Council director Grant Schneider said the three countries were still working on a trilateral basis “but looking to the future to determine at the appropriate time when and how to include other partners if the three partners determine that to be appropriate”.
However, the nuclear submarine component was intended to be just for Australia, the UK, and the US, Schneider said.
Krittenbrink said it was important to draw a distinction between the submarines’ nuclear propulsion systems and their conventional weapons, with the countries having “committed ourselves to the highest safety and nonproliferation standards”.
NZ risks 'sitting on the sideline'
David Capie, director of Victoria University of Wellington’s Centre for Strategic Studies, told Newsroom the submarine deal reflected the increasingly deep defence relationship between the US and Australia. With New Zealand's only formal ally investing "eye-watering sums" in the alliance, the foreign policy differences between the two countries were becoming more profound.
"No one expects Wellington to see the world in exactly the same way to Canberra, but there will definitely be some on this side of the Tasman wondering whether we're at risk of disappearing off a radar of relevancy."
While the submarine project had attracted headlines, Capie said it was the second pillar of work focused on non-nuclear technologies that arguably had more significant implications for New Zealand.
“AI, cyber, quantum, underwater technologies...there's real questions there about how long a country like New Zealand, which has always wanted to be in the room when there's talk about the development of new standards, will be happy sitting on the sideline while three of its closest partners talk about those critical technology issues.”
It was difficult to know how much the Government might have to increase its own defence spending to play a part in Aukus, although there were reasons other than scale for the other nations to want to include New Zealand.
The alliance could not be seen in a vacuum, Capie said, but in the context of “the largest military buildup in the region’s history” through China’s rapid modernisation and growing assertiveness.
“Whether or not what we're seeing is the beginning of a more intensive arms race, I think it's probably too early to say, but…there’s much sharper military conversation going on across the region, and the risk of conflict is growing - it's wrong not to face that square on.”
Speaking to media on Tuesday, Foreign Affairs Minister Nanaia Mahuta said New Zealand had been alerted to the announcement ahead of time, pointedly noting the “very different approach [taken] under the Albanese government”; the original unveiling of the alliance in 2021, when Scott Morrison was Australian prime minister, caught a number of countries off guard.
Mahuta said New Zealand had “acknowledged” the Aukus arrangements while making clear its view on the importance of the Treaty of Rarotonga, a 1986 agreement banning the use, testing and possession of nuclear weapons (but not nuclear-powered vessels) in the South Pacific.
“We have asserted that we want the Treaty of Rarotonga upheld because it is important for the Pacific, and that assurance has been given by Australia.”
The Government remained open to future discussions about New Zealand’s role in the non-nuclear aspects of the alliance, such as collaboration on cybersecurity, she said.
The submarine announcement has already attracted a strong response from China, with the country's United Nations mission describing the plan on social media as "a blatant act that constitutes serious nuclear proliferation risks, undermines international non-proliferation system, fuels arms races, and hurts peace and stability in the region".
