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Man City and Atlético Madrid shoot-out for a Champions League semi-final spot against either Real Madrid (most likely) or Chelsea.
Kevin De Bruyne's 70th minute strike gave City the edge in a first leg they dominated from a possession perspective but City's xGF of just 0.8 indicates just how difficult they found it to create high-quality openings.
It's good news for City that they don't need to win this game because Atlético haven't lost a Champions League knockout clash at home since they lost to Ajax in 1996/97.
Atléti have won ten of their 13 knockout ties with English teams in this competition but this Man City side are surely one of the best outfits ever to go to Madrid, which is why the Premier League champions are odds-on (4/5 with Betfred) to win this game. Pep Guardiola's side are a hugely restrictive 1/9 to qualify, while Atléti are 5/1 to cause the upset.
Diego Simeone's side weren't particularly adventurous at the Etihad but they have no choice to be more proactive this time because they simply have to win this game.
However, having won six consecutive matches prior to their trip to the Etihad, Atléti have now lost twice on the bounce after a surprising 1-0 defeat at La Liga struggler Mallorca on Saturday. They couldn't muster a single shot on target at the Etihad and they amassed an xGF of just 0.5 against fourth-bottom Mallorca, so the Madrid side have suddenly hit the buffers when it comes to creating chances and they won't get much change out of the Premier League's strongest defence.
City are perfectly placed to take advantage of the hosts having to open up as the game progresses, and it's actually not that difficult to see City winning this game and booking their semi-final place in style.
Atlético Madrid vs Man City prediction
The likelihood is that Atlético Madrid will aim to stay in the game for as long as possible before pushing for that all important goal but the very fact that they will need to open up at some stage is an ideal scenario for City who have so much attacking quality that they are perfectly placed to take advantage of the spaces left behind by the hosts.
Unless Atléti strike early, this really should play into City's hands and that makes the 4/5 about an away win quite appealing. If it is a stalemate at half time, back City at what will be odds-against to win the game.
Recommended bet: Man City to win at 4/5 with Betfred
Atlético Madrid vs Man City odds with Betfred
Match odds
- Atlético Madrid - 19/5
- Draw - 13/5
- Man City - 4/5
To Qualify odds
- Atlético - 5/1
- Man City - 1/9
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