I have no issue whatsoever with Robinson — the best running back prospect since Adrian Peterson — going in the top 10. He is no ordinary back. But the Falcons already have Tyler Allgeier on their roster, and needs all over the place that could have been addressed so very well with such a premium pick. Again, the low grade here has nothing to do with Robinson’s value, or the value of running backs in general. It’s just odd in this particular situation.
Height: 5′ 11″ (57th percentile) Weight: 215 (56th)
40-Yard Dash: 4.46 (82nd)
10-Yard Split: 1.52 (83rd)
Bench Press: N/A
Vertical Jump: 37″ (80th)
Broad Jump: 124″ (83rd)
3-Cone Drill: N/A
20-Yard Shuttle: N/A
Wingspan: 74¾” (56th)
Arm Length: 31⅛” (57th)
Hand Size: 9¾” (84th)
Bio: Robinson attended Salpointe High School in Tucson, Arizona, made the varsity team as a freshman, and announced his presence with authority in this sophomore season, gaining 2,023 rushing yards and scoring 26 touchdowns on 189 carries. Robinson finished his time at Salpointe as Arizona’s all-time high-school leader in rushing yards with 7,036, and touchdowns with 114. Robinson was a five-star recruit, the No. 1 running back in the nation in 2020, and the No. 2 overall prospect behind only Georgia cornerback Kelee Ringo. Robinson chose Texas over just about any school he wanted, which led to amazing productivity and an NIL deal to endorse his own brand of mustard, called “Bijan Mustardson.” It is the “Official Dijon of Bijan,” and we have nothing to add that could amplify the greatness of this idea.
In three seasons with the Longhorns, Robinson gained 3,407 yards ad scored 33 touchdowns on 539 carries. He also caught 60 passes on 77 targets for 803 yards and eight touchdowns. In 2022, he had 475 snaps in the backfield, 23 out wide, and 14 in the slot.
Stat to Know: Robinson forced 104 missed tackles last season, which is the most for any running back in the history of Pro Football Focus’ charting. In addition, his career Missed Tackle Rate Forced of 39% is tied with former North Carolina and current Denver Broncos star Javonte Williams for the highest in PFF’s charting annals.
Strengths: Robinson’s contact balance is as good as for any running back I’ve ever evaluated. And it’s not just about pure power, though he’s got more than enough weight to just throw defenders aside — it’s the eerie combination of vision, lateral agility, and force through all kinds of contact. There are plays in which you wonder how he “only” broke 104 tackles last season.
And if you want preposterous jump cuts combined with home-run speed you’d more expect out of a guy 20 pounds lighter… well, Robinson can do that all day. He’s probably got more pure “Holy [EXPLETIVE]’ plays on his tape then any other player in this class.
As a receiver, Robinson presents a more than credible weapon in the slot — he’s about far more than just swings and screen passes. Here, he just leveled Iowa State cornerback Anthony Johnson Jr. with a move on the skinny post, adding acrobatics at the end.
Weaknesses: Well, this section is going to be pretty light. Robinson is the most ding-proof prospect in the 2023 class. His only consistent weakness is that he’s a running back in the year 2023 as opposed to the year 1998.
Conclusion: Positional value is a fickle concept. There are those who will automatically criticize any team that takes a running back in the first round of any draft, and it’s really missing the overall point. Overall, running backs are like insurance — they don’t matter until they do, and when they do, they REALLY do. Especially when we’re talking about a running back who pins the needle with every attribute for the position, and adds legitimate value as a multi-level receiver. Robinson is the best non-quarterback and non-defensive player in this class, and were we talking about another era, he could be NO. 1 overall. None of this should shadow his value and potential at the NFL level, because it’s absolute, and it’s bulletproof.
NFL Comparison: Josh Jacobs. The Raiders took Jacobs out of Alabama with the second of their three first-round picks in the 2019 draft. The other two picks, edge-rusher Clelin Ferell and safety Johnathan Abram, were unmitigated busts. But Jacobs became one of the best running backs in the NFL, especially in the 2022 season, when he forced a league-high 90 missed tackles, showed all kinds of second- and third-level speed, and showed that he could get things done as a receiver. Robinson is more evolved with a lot of Jacobs’ traits, but it’s a fairly even comp.
