Welcome to At the Races! Each week we bring you news and analysis from the CQ Roll Call campaign team. Know someone who’d like to get this newsletter? They can subscribe here.
Historic gains with Latino voters in 2024 helped Donald Trump win the White House and boosted GOP candidates in swing districts across the nation.
Republicans hope those gains signify a generational shift to the right. But a new Pew Research Center poll suggests that some of these voters are growing disenchanted with Trump. His disapproval rating among Latinos stands at 72 percent, with 27 percent approving.
It isn’t just Latinos: Trump is underwater with all voters, the Pew survey found. His overall job approval rating is 40 percent, with nearly 60 percent disapproving of the way he’s handled his job so far.
Solidifying Latino support is a key part of the GOP’s strategy for the midterms. The party credits Latino voters for its success in flipping districts with large Hispanic populations in central Colorado and Pennsylvania’s Lehigh Valley.
Now, the National Republican Congressional Committee is targeting a pair of South Texas districts in territory that has long been controlled by Democrats. The 28th District, held by Rep. Henry Cuellar, and the 34th District, held by Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, are among the prime pickup opportunities that House Republicans are counting on to grow their majority next year. The NRCC points out that both districts have swung more than 25 points to the right since 2012. And the committee cites a different poll showing Trump’s approval rating among Hispanic men is approaching 60 percent.
The party’s strategy for winning over Latino voters has been to lean heavily on border security and conservative cultural issues, such as transgender athletes in girls high school and college sports.
The Democratic Party has “left behind Hispanic voters with its extreme, out of touch agenda — allowing men in women’s sports, sidelining parents in education, and pushing for open borders,” NRCC spokesman Christian Martinez said in a statement.
Ultimately, the question of whether the rightward drift of Latino voters becomes a permanent trend or a 2024 blip could turn on the state of the economy more than any other issue.
“This is not what folks voted for,” María Teresa Kumar, president of voting rights group Voto Latino and a former Democratic congressional aide, said in an interview on MSNBC. “For folks in the Latino community that said … ‘I’m gonna vote for Trump this time,’ it was all to help fix their economic situation. And this is the absolute opposite.”
Starting gate
Durbin to step down: Senate Minority Whip Richard J. Durbin announced Wednesday that he will not seek reelection in Illinois next year, concluding a four-decade-plus career in Congress. The announcement sets off what’s sure to be a hotly contested Democratic primary to succeed him. Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton formally announced her campaign Thursday morning.
Legal look back: Roll Call’s Chris Johnson, Michael Macagnone and Ryan Tarinelli took a look at Durbin’s record on the Judiciary Committee, where he serves as the top Democrat.
From House to Senate? Kentucky Rep. Andy Barr has entered what could be a crowded Republican primary to succeed retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell. Former commonwealth Attorney General Daniel Cameron is running, and businessman Nate Morris is likely to jump in. McConnell, the former longtime Senate GOP leader, appears poised to become a major issue in the race as the candidates try to underscore their pro-Trump bona fides. A spokesman for Morris branded Barr, a onetime McConnell intern, as a “lackey” of the retiring senator who would “vote like his ‘mentor’…. and thwart President Trump’s America First Agenda.”
From House to Senate? Part II: Michigan Rep. Haley Stevens launched her Senate campaign this week as well. The fourth-term Democrat from Oakland County joins a field that already features former Wayne County health director Abdul El-Sayed and prominent state Sen. Mallory McMorrow for the seat being vacated by Democratic Sen. Gary Peters. Rep. Hillary Scholten endorsed Stevens on Thursday.
#CA40: Republican Rep. Young Kim has proved to be an elusive target for Democrats in a purple district in California’s Orange County. But at least five Democrats are taking aim at her seat this cycle, including 2024 nominee Joe Kerr, former Chino Valley school board member Christina Gagnier, art dealer Esther Kim Varet, consultant Paula Swift and nonprofit executive director Nina Linh.
On the margins: Washington Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez, one of 13 House Democrats representing seats carried by Trump last year, has emphasized meeting voters where they are. That’s helped her carve out a distinct brand in Washington’s 3rd District, Payton May of the USC Annenberg Media news platform writes for Roll Call.
A different arena: Former NFL kicker Jay Feely entered the race for the House seat that Arizona GOP Rep. Andy Biggs is vacating to run for governor, Roll Call’s Victor Feldman reports. Feely said Trump had encouraged him to pivot from sports to politics as he joins a crowded Republican primary for the Phoenix-area 5th District.
ICYMI
Ad watch: The National Republican Congressional Committee launched a digital ad campaign targeting 25 House Democrats, tying them to party lawmakers who traveled to El Salvador seeking the release of a deported Maryland man. Meanwhile, Reproductive Freedom for All announced a $100,000 ad buy targeting Reps. Juan Ciscomani of Arizona, Young Kim of California and Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania over alleged proposals to cut Medicaid.
Counting stars (or votes): Former OneRepublic bassist Tim Myers is challenging GOP Rep. Ken Calvert as a Democrat in California’s competitive 41st District.
Always be campaigning: Democratic former Rep. Alan Grayson is seeking elected office once again, announcing he will run in a special election for the Florida Senate.
A family affair: Cory Bowman, the half brother of Vice President JD Vance, has entered the race for mayor of Cincinnati, running as a Republican in a predominantly Democratic city and deepening a trend of politicians’ relatives seeking elected office. In Georgia, GOP state Sen. Bill Cowsert, the brother-in-law of term-limited Gov. Brian Kemp, is running for state attorney general, a post that’s open because the current occupant is seeking to succeed Kemp.
Virginia is for Republicans: The GOP statewide ticket in this year’s Virginia elections appears set after Fairfax County Supervisor Pat Herrity dropped out of the race for lieutenant governor for health reasons. That leaves talk radio host John Reid as the Republican nominee to succeed incumbent Winsome Sears, who is running for governor. Reid would be part of a diverse Republican slate: Sears is Black; Attorney General Jason Miyares, who is seeking a second term, is Hispanic; and Reid would be the commonwealth’s first openly gay nominee for statewide office.
#TX18: Energy lobbyist Zoe Cadore is the latest Democrat to announce a campaign for the November special election for the Texas seat left open by the death of Democratic Rep. Sylvester Turner in March. Cadore is a former Miss Houston who has never held elective office but says in her campaign launch video that she’s motivated to run because “this is an all-hands-on-deck moment.”
Guv roundup: Trump this week made his second endorsement in the Arizona governor’s race, backing Rep. Andy Biggs’ campaign a few months after he also endorsed former Arizona Board of Regents member Karrin Taylor Robson. In Georgia, state Sen. Jason Esteves became the first prominent Democrat to launch a bid to succeed Brian Kemp, while 2014 Democratic nominee Jason Carter, the grandson of the late President Jimmy Carter, said he had no plans to run after his wife was diagnosed with brain cancer. In Florida, former GOP Rep. David Jolly has registered as a Democrat and launched a state political committee, a move that could signal a run for governor next year. In California, conservative commentator Steve Hilton, who was an adviser to former British Prime Minister David Cameron, joined the race to succeed Democrat Gavin Newsom as governor. And former New Mexico Supreme Court Chief Justice Judith Nakamura, the last Republican to win a statewide race, is considering a gubernatorial run next year.
From House (staff) to Senate? Former congressional aide Jordan Wood launched a Democratic bid for Senate in his native Maine. Wood, who was chief of staff to former California Rep. Katie Porter, is challenging longtime Republican incumbent Susan Collins.
State parties: The Democratic National Committee will increase the amount of money that state parties receive each month by $5,000, Chairman Ken Martin said Thursday, bringing the monthly baseline amount to $17,500 a month. Republican-controlled states will receive a total of $22,500 monthly.
Nathan’s notes
In our bitterly divided country, there’s one political issue that could unite both Republicans and Democrats, according to Roll Call elections analyst Nathan L. Gonzales of Inside Elections: age limits for members of Congress.
Recent examples of struggles by aging lawmakers show the time has come for the country and Congress to consider a “maximum” age for service, Nathan opines in his latest dispatch.
What we’re reading
California love: Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders’ recent “Fighting Oligarchy” swing through California along with New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez appears to have energized frustrated Democrats, who hope to sustain that enthusiasm long enough to oust a few GOP lawmakers next year, former Roll Call Editor-in-Chief Christina Bellantoni writes.
More California: Former Democratic Rep. Barbara Lee, a longtime progressive stalwart, will be the next Oakland mayor after her victory in last week’s election. But, as Politico reports, the well-funded moderate groups that helped propel her opponent to a stronger-than-expected showing are here to stay.
“An industrialized viral-video machine”: The Washington Post profiles Acyn Torabi, a little-known single dad from Los Angeles whose ubiquitous viral video clips are shaping progressive public opinion.
The warrior on the Hill: The Washingtonian asks whether 87-year-old Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton, the District of Columbia’s nonvoting representative in Congress, has what it takes to fight for D.C. in the Trump era as the president and Republican lawmakers “meddle in city politics.”
Senate strategy: Democrats face a difficult Senate map next year, and CNN looks at how the party is faring so far in candidate recruitment in battleground states, as well as in states considered safer bets for Republicans.
The count: 75 percent
That’s the share of Democrats who view their own party favorably, according to a new poll from the Pew Research Center.
It represents a drop in internal approval of nearly 10 points from 2023 — a big hit to the popularity of the Democratic Party, which is now seen favorably by just 38 percent of American adults. Among Democratic-leaning independents, the party’s favorability has fallen by 6 points (to 47 percent) over the same time frame.
By contrast, Pew found that the GOP was seen favorably by 43 percent of Americans, thanks in large part to its strong approval among Republicans (87 percent: a 5-point improvement from 2023) and Republican-leaning independents (60 percent: a 9-point improvement).
— By Roll Call’s Ryan Kelly
Coming up
As Congress returns next week, House Republicans are expected to kick off their budget reconciliation push with committee markups of pieces of what they hope will become a “big, beautiful bill” in support of the Trump agenda. The president, meanwhile, will celebrate his first 100 days back in the White House with a visit to Michigan on Tuesday.
Photo finish
Subscribe now using this link so you don’t miss out on the best news and analysis from our team.
The post At the Races: The shifting Latino vote appeared first on Roll Call.
