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When House and Senate primary season began on March 5, Super Tuesday, President Joe Biden was running for reelection and Nikki Haley was still vying for the Republican presidential nomination.
To say a lot has changed over the past six months is an understatement. In a presidential year, congressional primaries can get lost with the relentless focus on the top of the ticket. But the winners and losers of the primaries, which came to an end this week with contests in New Hampshire, Delaware and Rhode Island, also provide important clues about the state of politics today.
Take, for instance, the power of endorsements. Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy had some wins this primary season: He backed California Assemblyman Vince Fong for his old congressional seat, and his feud with Virginia Rep. Bob Good may have lifted Good’s GOP challenger, John McGuire. But McCarthy spent big to try to defeat Reps. Nancy Mace of South Carolina and Matt Gaetz of Florida, two of the eight Republicans who ousted him from the speaker’s chair, and both incumbents won easily.
Former President Donald Trump endorsed a slew of GOP primary candidates — sometimes even backing multiple contenders for the same seat. Ballotpedia put Trump’s success rate at 94 percent.
On the Democratic side, the political arm of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee notched several significant victories. The group backed two primary challengers to progressive Democratic House members who had opposed funding to Israel for the war in Gaza.
But primary season’s biggest victors might be the 42 House candidates and six Senate contenders who won primaries in districts and states where one party or another completely dominates. As Nathan L. Gonzales from Inside Elections pointed out on the Political Theater podcast with Editor-in-Chief Jason Dick, they are all but assured to win in November. “Primary turnout is usually pretty abysmal,” Gonzales said, “and a lot of voters are missing an opportunity to effectively choose the next member of Congress.”
Starting gate
Most vulnerable: Our latest ranking of the most vulnerable senators and House members went out this morning. The Senate landscape has changed only slightly, but the House list now includes members from Alaska and Nebraska.
Last call: The final primaries of the cycle (we know Louisiana votes on Nov. 5, but that’s only a primary if the winner doesn’t break 50 percent) settled a testy Democratic fight in New Hampshire and cued up a potentially historic election in Delaware.
Earmarking winners: House members in close contests have been among those touting their ability to bring home money through congressionally directed spending, also known as earmarks. Allison Mollenkamp reports that Rep. Jen Kiggans, R-Va., leads the way among members in races rated as Toss-up or Tilt.
Remember Tuesday? Colleague John T. Bennett had takeaways from the debate between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris shortly after it ended, and FactCheck.org was busy (12 bylines!) plowing through their exchanges. Columnist Mary C. Curtis noted the hurdles Harris faced and her success in upending the stereotype of “angry Black woman.” Trump’s voice stress rate spiked 14 times during the meetup, according to an analysis from Roll Call Factba.se presidential campaign research fellow Alex Angle. The full analysis includes some nifty charts, plus there’s a transcript tied to video clips.
Morning after: Harris and Trump had another handshake at Ground Zero for a ceremony marking the 9/11 terrorist attacks, but they had contrasting approaches to the day, Bennett reports.
ICYMI
Is this weird? There’s a candidate for vice president who backed $4 trillion in deficit reduction recommendations, and he’s not on the GOP ticket. CQ Roll Call’s Daniel Hillburn digs into the archives to find that Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, now Harris’ running mate, supported a proposal in 2010 derided by the left as the “Catfood commission” because of the cuts to programs for the poor and elderly.
Elections prep: The House Administration Committee put a focus this week on states’ readiness for the November elections in a hearing with state elections officials, who said harassment of election workers is a top issue. Rep. Bryan Steil, the committee’s chairman, also focused on voter identification laws and the removal of noncitizens from voter rolls, both Republican priorities, as his party is trying to advance a measure that passed the House earlier this year requiring proof of citizenship to register to vote in federal elections as part of a government funding bill.
Remembering Maine: Amid a flurry of other post-debate campaign news, the Harris-Walz campaign is dipping into Maine’s 2nd Congressional District. Maine, like Nebraska, allocates Electoral College votes by congressional district rather than a winner-take-all system based on state results. Former President Donald Trump won the largely rural district’s electoral vote in both 2016 and 2020 — but, as the Bangor Daily News reports, Minnesota first lady Gwen Walz is headed to Bangor on Friday. Rep. Jared Golden, the Democrat who represents the district, has said he won’t endorse Harris.
Swift effect: You may have heard that Taylor Swift endorsed Harris after Tuesday’s debate. Her Instagram post, which also encouraged people to register to vote, led more than 337,000 people to a General Services Administration’s voting website. Voters of Tomorrow, a Gen Z-led advocacy group, touted that it raised more than $100,000 after the debate and Swift’s announcement.
Endorsement watch: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce endorsed former Gov. Larry Hogan for Maryland’s open Senate seat. DMFI PAC announced its backing of Democratic Senate candidates Angela Alsobrooks in Maryland and Rep. Ruben Gallego in Arizona, as well as a dozen House candidates.
Check your phone: Winning for Women, a super PAC supporting Republican female candidates, announced a nearly $500,000 effort to boost Reps. Lori Chavez-DeRemer and Michelle Steel. The money will go toward a mail, texting and phone advocacy campaign focused on in vitro fertilization legislation.
More ads: House Majority PAC, which backs Democrats, is placing nearly $3 million in additional reservations to run in the final weeks of the 2024 election cycle. Meanwhile, the Congressional Leadership Fund, which supports Republicans, is launching new ads in 11 House battleground districts.
Surveys say: HMP released six polls Thursday morning that they say show Democrats are “poised to take back the House” with challengers leading or within the margin of error. In New York’s 22nd District, Democrat John Mannion led Rep. Brandon Williams, who was No. 1 on our most vulnerable list, 50 percent to 43 percent. Other results had Democrats statistically tied with Republican incumbents David Schweikert in Arizona’s 1st, David Valadao in California’s 22nd, Don Bacon in Nebraska’s 2nd, Anthony D’Esposito in New York’s 4th and Jen Kiggans in Virginia’s 2nd (see this week’s Key Race below).
Electoral counting security: The Department of Homeland Security has designated the counting of Electoral College votes as a National Special Security Event, effectively putting the Secret Service in charge of security preparations for certifying the presidential election, in response to the insurrection attempt that took place on Jan. 6, 2021. Chris Johnson also reports for Roll Call that the Secret Service has told Congress funding shortfalls weren’t to blame for the security lapse at the Trump rally in Pennsylvania where he was shot on July 13.
Ballot mail delays: A group of election officials is sounding the alarm about the potential that mail-in ballots will face delays in being returned. In a Wednesday letter to Postmaster General Louis DeJoy, the officials wrote: “In nearly every state … local election officials are receiving timely postmarked ballots well after Election Day and well outside the three to five business days USPS claims as the First-Class delivery standard.”
What we’re reading
MBA blues: A claim that Ohio Republican Bernie Moreno holds an MBA from the University of Michigan appeared on both his car dealership application and a short bio when Moreno served on the board of a Cleveland charity. However, the Ohio Capital Journal reports that Moreno, who is running against Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown in one of the nation’s most pivotal contests, earned a bachelor’s degree from Michigan but not an MBA.
A father’s plea: Nathan Clark, whose 11-year-old son was killed when an immigrant from Haiti struck a school bus, has a message for Republicans who he says are politicizing the boy’s death: “This needs to stop now,” Clark said. “They are not allowed nor have they ever been allowed, to mention Aiden Clark from Springfield, Ohio. I will listen to them one more time to hear their apologies.” In comments made to the Springfield City Commission and reported by the Springfield News-Sun, Clark singled out Moreno, Texas Rep. Chip Roy, vice presidential nominee Sen. JD Vance and Trump.
Peters’ fall focus: Sen. Gary Peters, the chairman of the DSCC, told regional reporters this week that defending the Ohio and Montana Senate seats are among his committee’s top priorities. Jennifer Shutt has more for the Michigan Advance and other States Newsroom publications.
Elections, immigration and the economy: Politico provides a helpful rundown of measures that will be on dozens of state ballots in November.
#PASEN: Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey is bracing for an onslaught of Republican attack ads in his high-profile race against Republican Dave McCormick, CNN reports.
The count: 4
That’s the final number of House incumbents, evenly split between the parties, who ran in primaries for their own seats this cycle and lost. Republicans were Jerry Carl of Alabama, who lost back on the first primary day of March 5 to fellow Republican Barry Moore after redistricting, and the aforementioned Bob Good in Virginia, who belatedly lost the June 18 primary to Trump-backed challenger John McGuire. Democrats defeated were Jamaal Bowman of New York on June 25 and Cori Bush of Missouri on Aug. 6, two progressives who faced an onslaught of negative ads funded by pro-Israel groups. Data pulled this week by the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics showed the four defeats were a marked drop from the two most recent cycles but matched the results in 2018 and 2016. Five other House members lost primaries running for Senate (Republican Alex X. Mooney and Democrats Barbara Lee, Katie Porter and David Trone) or president (Democrat Dean Phillips).
Nathan’s notes
Democrats may be gushing about Harris’ performance in Tuesday’s debate, but Nathan points out that the race was close before and will likely be close afterward. “Neither Trump nor Harris said or did anything on Tuesday night that would cause their supporters to leave at any significant level,” he notes. Still, a candidate gaining or dropping a few percentage points in swing states “could make the difference in the race,” he writes.
Key race: #VA02
Candidates: Rep. Jen Kiggans, one of 16 freshman Republicans representing a district that Biden would have won in 2020, faces a challenge from Missy Cotter Smasal, a Navy veteran who previously owned a small business and is a nonprofit executive director and adjunct professor. Before coming to Congress, Kiggans, who is also a Navy veteran, worked as a geriatric nurse and was a state senator.
Why it matters: Kiggans is defending a battleground seat for the first time as Republicans try to hold on to control of the House. It’s set to be one of two fiercely competitive House races in Virginia, along with the open 7th District.
Cash dash: Kiggans had $2.5 million on hand as of June 30, while Cotter Smasal had $585,000. So far, House Majority PAC has spent $235,000 opposing Kiggans, while Congressional Leadership Fund, its Republican counterpart, has spent $288,000 supporting her, according to FEC filings. Americans for Prosperity Inc. also spent $109,000 supporting Kiggans.
Backers: Kiggans hosted Speaker Mike Johnson in the district last month and has touted endorsements from Virginia’s top Republicans, including Gov. Glenn Youngkin. Cotter Smasal is backed by House Democratic leaders and touts endorsements from an array of Democratic groups on her campaign website, including EMILY’s List, VoteVets and the New Democrat Coalition Action Fund.
What they’re saying: Kiggans’ ads have highlighted her background as a nurse practitioner and Navy helicopter pilot. Her most recent ad focuses on her work on a range of issues, including border security, veterans health care and inflation. Cotter Smasal’s first ad last month sought to tie Kiggans to fellow GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, a Republican firebrand, and attacked her as “anti-choice.”
Terrain: The 2nd District covers much of Virginia’s Eastern Shore, as well as the independent cities of Virginia Beach and Suffolk. It’s home to a large military presence. Kiggans won the seat two years ago by 3.4 percentage points. Biden would have won the seat by 1.9 percentage points, according to Inside Elections, which rates the race as Tilt Republican.
Wild card: An Impact Research poll released Thursday by House Majority PAC, a super PAC supporting Democratic candidates, found a virtual dead heat, with Kiggans at 48 percent and Cotter Smasal at 47 percent.
Coming up
Voters in New Jersey’s 10th District, where Biden beat Trump by nearly 56 points in 2020, will pick a replacement Wednesday for the late Rep. Donald M. Payne Jr., who died in April. Newark City Council President LaMonica McIver won the 11-candidate special Democratic primary in July and had $51,000 in her campaign account on Aug. 29, compared with Republican Carmen Bucco’s $9,500. Both candidates will also face off in November for a full term.
Photo finish
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The post At the Races: Recapping the season appeared first on Roll Call.
