This week, there’s a certain irony to our newsletter being called “At the Races.”
And no, it’s not because Pete Rose, Major League Baseball’s all-time hits leader who was banned from baseball for betting on the Cincinnati Reds, died Monday at age 83.
Betting on the outcome of the congressional elections next month by individuals within the United States using Kalshi, a U.S.-based prediction market, can resume after the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit lifted an administrative stay Tuesday. As our own Pete Cohn reports, the CFTC “has not demonstrated that it or the public will be irreparably harmed” if election betting resumes while the agency’s appeal is heard, Judge Patricia A. Millett wrote in the decision.
There have been other ways to, in effect, wager on U.S. election outcomes — but this could be new territory in the final month before Election Day.
At first glance, Kalshi was offering contracts on questions like: control of the House, control of the Senate and the winner of the presidency. And there will be other big players, including Interactive Brokers, which told us they could start offering their own forecast contracts as early as 5:15 p.m. Thursday.
If you’re inclined to wager, remember that not all data is created equal. In this context, might we call high-quality internal polls material nonpublic information?
This might all sound far-fetched, but to see the potential for abuse, one needs only to look to the United Kingdom, where there’s been a betting scandal related to this summer’s parliamentary elections. Those allegedly involved will not face the most serious possible charges, the Financial Times reported.
Sen. Jeff Merkley, D-Ore., has already introduced a bill intending to stop Wall Street firms from effectively running such bets.
“Gambling on U.S. elections is a bad bet for our democracy. Effective immediately, huge Wall Street firms can open trading to the wealthy so they can bet millions on which party controls the House or Senate,” Merkley said in a statement Wednesday. “And those folks can then spend big in dark money to attack candidates to protect their bets.”
Starting gate
Toss-up and turn? Rep. Abigail Spanberger’s decision to run for governor has spurred both parties to go all in on her open House seat in the D.C. exurbs, a crucial bellwether.
Palm Springs redux: Rep. Ken Calvert, the dean of the California GOP delegation, is in a rematch against his 2022 Democratic opponent, whom he narrowly beat. The lines of attack, ads and messaging are getting a little nasty.
Minnesota nice: During Tuesday’s vice presidential debate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz’s approach recalled his time in the House, carefully avoiding personal attacks, CQ Roll Call’s John T. Bennett writes.
Get-ahead year: Having already served 22 years in Congress, Arizona Democratic Rep. Raúl M. Grijalva said November’s election will be his last. He said he wasn’t abandoning his office but wants to plan his retirement well in advance, according to CQ Roll Call’s David Jordan.
Suit up: The Supreme Court’s new term, which starts Monday, is shaping up to be more “sleepy” than the last few, but justices might still get dragged into fights about the 2024 elections, CQ Roll Call’s Michael Macagnone reports.
ICYMI
Debate night in Montana: A night before the vice presidential debate, Democratic Sen. Jon Tester and Republican challenger Tim Sheehy squared off in a debate that featured many of the same arguments portrayed in ads across the state, NBC’s Bridget Bowman and Alex Tabet report.
And Virginia: The only scheduled Senate debate of the cycle in Virginia took place Wednesday at Norfolk State University between incumbent Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine and his Republican challenger, Hung Cao. The Associated Press reported that beyond the predictable national political lines of argument, the debate featured military policy questions that are always top-of-mind in the local market.
And tonight in Pennsylvania: Democratic Sen. Bob Casey will debate Republican challenger David McCormick in Harrisburg on Thursday night.
Ad strategy: The NRSC canceled its existing independent expenditure buys through the election and will instead partner with individual campaigns on hybrid ads, Politico reports.
Ad watch: Democratic Rep. Hillary Scholten released an ad focused on her position on immigration, an issue often seen in Republican ads but one that some Democrats are trying to use to their advantage. Republican Rep. Marc Molinaro recruited his mom for a spot underscoring his commitment to funding Social Security and Medicare. Florida Senate candidate Debbie Mucarsel-Powell released an ad attacking Sen. Rick Scott for voting against disaster relief funding and leading to higher home insurance rates in Florida.
Notable polls: A Public Opinion Strategies poll for the Congressional Leadership Fund found Wisconsin GOP Rep. Derrick Van Orden leading Democratic challenger Rebecca Cooke 49 percent to 44 percent, outside the margin of error. It follows a September poll that found Cooke up 2 points over Van Orden. The Independent Center released a poll showing 47 percent of Nebraskans said they would vote for independent Dan Osborn, more than the 42 percent who said they’d support Sen. Deb Fischer. Another 10 percent were unsure. The margin of error was 4.9 percentage points.
Thune’s travels: Senate Minority Whip John Thune, who is running to be the next Republican leader, was in New York City earlier this week for events with McCormick, as well as Arizona’s Kari Lake, Nevada’s Sam Brown, Ohio’s Bernie Moreno and Michigan’s Mike Rogers, according to a source familiar with his schedule. While there, Thune, R-S.D., offered perspective in a CNBC interview in which he talked about internal polls being “more accurate.” “I think the public polls vary depending on the pollster and how they approach it, what their methodology is, so you have to take that with a grain of salt,” he said. “But if you’re a candidate trying to make decisions about where to allocate resources, you trust your internal polling. And you’re doing that at this point in a campaign, you’re polling every night, so you have a … three-day rolling average that gives you, I think, a clear sort of view into what the voters are thinking.”
Billboard strategy: The DNC is up with new billboards in several locations in Michigan reminding voters that former President Donald Trump and his 2024 running mate, Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, don’t recognize the legitimacy of President Joe Biden’s 2020 victory.
Endorsement watch: The Wisconsin Farm Bureau Federation endorsed Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin for reelection.
What we’re reading
Down-ballot dilemma: Democratic Rep. Don Davis and his GOP challenger, Laurie Buckhout, are locked in a competitive race in eastern North Carolina, but both could see their chances affected by candidates up-ballot: Vice President Kamala Harris for Davis and Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson for Buckhout, the AP reports.
Hurricane Scott: Democrats in Florida are trying to make climate-related arguments against Sen. Rick Scott in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene, Emma Dumain and Kimberly Leonard report over at E&E News.
Still cashing out: It’s been one year since Kevin McCarthy became the first speaker in U.S. history to be ousted from the role. NOTUS reports that McCarthy, who later resigned from the House, is distributing $14 million to help GOP candidates for the House and Senate, as well as Trump, at a time when Republicans largely trail Democrats in the money game.
The political is personal: Like millions of Americans, Scott Baugh has lost a family member to opioids. The Republican running for an open congressional seat in a Southern California battleground district opened up to The Orange County Register about his younger brother’s death from an opioid-induced cardiac arrest in 2020. The tragedy has led Baugh to call for a more secure border and support efforts to increase the availability of naloxone, which can reverse the effects of an overdose.
#NJSEN: Curtis Bashaw has a narrow path to become New Jersey’s first Republican elected to the Senate in more than 50 years, The New York Times reports.
The crusader: Nadia Milleron devoted herself to holding Boeing and the Federal Aviation Administration accountable after losing her 23-year-old daughter, Samya Stumo, in a Max 737 crash. Now Milleron, the niece of consumer advocate Ralph Nader, is running for Congress against Massachusetts Democratic Rep. Richard E. Neal. “I will never forget that I did not hear from my congressman around Samya’s death,” Milleron told The New York Times, which details how the grieving mother from western Massachusetts is channeling her anger and sadness into her long-shot campaign.
The count: 67
That’s the number of tweets by Trump, after he was elected president, explicitly encouraging or promising a repeal of the 2010 health care law often referred to as “Obamacare.”
If Republican Senators are unable to pass what they are working on now, they should immediately REPEAL, and then REPLACE at a later date!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 30, 2017
As Niels Lesniewski and Lia DeGroot report, Republican nominee Vance tried in this week’s vice presidential debate to rewrite history and cast the former president as the law’s savior rather than sworn enemy. Beyond Trump’s litany of social media posts calling for the 2010 law to be “terminated” (the most recent of which was posted less than a year ago), he made clear that his preferred alternative was the law’s collapse, rather than any attempt to work across the aisle to “salvage” it, as Vance put it.
3 Republicans and 48 Democrats let the American people down. As I said from the beginning, let ObamaCare implode, then deal. Watch!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 28, 2017
In Trump’s final days in office, he felt compelled to tweet “for historical purposes” and declare victory over the law, claiming credit for both fixing and ending it by repealing the individual mandate (something that the Congressional Budget Office had warned would result in millions more uninsured Americans and higher health insurance premiums).
For historical purposes remember, I was able to get rid of the INDIVIDUAL MANDATE, the most unpopular and expensive part of ObamaCare. You are no longer forced to pay a fortune for the “privilege” of NOT getting bad healthcare. This ended ObamaCare as we knew it. Thank you!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 2, 2021
Even this charitable historical framing by Trump failed to align with Vance’s, that Trump “saved” the program by governing in a “bipartisan way,” as the legislative vehicle making the change failed to garner any Democratic support in either the House or the Senate.
Nathan’s notes
The mixed bag of most recent ratings changes muddled the forecast. The House is as competitive as ever. And even though Republicans are still in a better position to take the majority in the Senate, some key races moved toward Democrats.
Key race: #CO08
Candidates: Democratic Rep. Yadira Caraveo is a physician and former state legislator who was first elected to Congress two years ago. Her Republican opponent is Gabe Evans, a state representative, Army veteran and former police officer who beat former state lawmaker Janak Joshi in the Republican primary in June.
Why it matters: The 8th District was created after the 2020 census. It is the state’s newest and most competitive seat: Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales rates the race as a Toss-up. Biden won the district by 4.5 percentage points. A poll released Wednesday by Emerson College Polling/KDVR/KWGN/The Hill found the race tied.
Cash dash: As of June 30, Caraveo had $3.4 million on hand to Evans’ $533,000. But outside groups are playing an outsize role in the race. Americans for Prosperity Action, a conservative PAC, had already spent $331,000 in support of Evans as of late June. Last week, BOLD PAC, the campaign arm of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, announced it was spending six figures on a bilingual mail program targeting Democrats and unaffiliated voters in the district as well as a two-week ad blitz on Spanish-language stations.
Backers: Caraveo has the endorsement of EMILY’s List, which backs Democratic women who support abortion rights; the 3.14 Action fund, which works to elect scientists and medical providers to Congress; and the Latino Victory Fund. Evans was endorsed by Speaker Mike Johnson, the Colorado Fraternal Order of Police and more than a dozen mayors from across the district. Both candidates have been tapped by their respective parties for competitive programs that provide them with additional resources: Evans is part of the NRCC’s “Young Guns” effort, and Caraveo is a DCCC Frontliner.
What they’re saying: Caraveo and the Democrats have focused their attacks on abortion. An ad produced by the House Majority PAC is narrated by an OB-GYN who claims that Evans supports banning all abortions, even in cases of rape or incest. Evans told The Colorado Sun last week that he thinks abortions should be permitted in cases of rape or incest or when the mother’s life is in danger. The Democrats’ attack is based on a vaguely worded survey that he filled out in 2022, he said.
Republicans have criticized Caraveo on immigration. An ad by the Congressional Leadership Fund, a PAC aligned with House GOP leaders, blames Caraveo and the Democrats for overcrowded hospitals, overwhelmed schools and fentanyl deaths that the group says are the byproduct of immigration. A Caraveo campaign spokesperson told Colorado Politics that the ad is misleading because it fails to mention her support for a bipartisan immigration bill that GOP leaders scuttled after Trump weighed in to criticize it.
Terrain: The district runs along Interstate 25 and includes the communities of Greeley and Thornton.
Wild card: Nearly 40 percent of the adult population of the district is Latino, and both Caraveo and Evans are of Mexican heritage. A statewide exit poll after the 2022 contest found Latino voters supported Democrats by a 2-to-1 margin, a result Democrats are seeking to replicate. A report issued over the summer by the Colorado Latino Policy Agenda found that economic issues and the rising cost of living are the top concerns of the state’s Latino voters, and that’s something Evans has emphasized. But the report also found broad support among Latino voters for abortion rights, which Caraveo has focused on.
Coming up
Early voting in the key swing state of Arizona kicks off on Oct. 9, with many voters expected to either vote by mail or use drop boxes for their ballots across the Grand Canyon State. Walz is scheduled to be in Arizona for events tied to the kickoff of early voting, and he probably won’t be alone.
Photo finish
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