Just how tight was the battle for control of the House? Well, consider that if just three additional races had broken in Democrats’ favor, we would have had to wait for nearly a month on vote counting in California to determine which party had won the majority.
And if that had happened, we might still have been waiting on leadership elections for both Democrats and Republicans. We could still have been waiting on the 2025 legislative calendar to be released. And President-elect Donald Trump certainly wouldn’t have been able to quickly tap Reps. Elise Stefanik and Michael Waltz for key positions in his next administration.
With Democratic challenger Adam Gray unseating GOP Rep. John Duarte in California’s 13th District, the results of 2024 House elections are now final. House Democrats ended up netting one additional seat, holding Republicans to a 220-215 majority, even as Trump won back the presidency and Republicans claimed control of the Senate.
Duarte conceded the contest when results showed him trailing by 187 votes, and The Associated Press called the race late Tuesday night local time in California.
Of course, Gray (along with the other newly elected members who flipped seats) will be top targets of opposing party committees and outside super PACs heading into the 2026 midterm cycle. And, especially perhaps for Democrats like Gray who narrowly won seats in areas where Trump is presumed to have run well, they might have an outsize influence in the narrowly divided House, where vote margins will be tight and opportunities to cross over and support selective parts of the Trump policy agenda may be plentiful.
Starting gate
2026 is here: We’re only a month removed from this year’s elections, but Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy has already drawn a challenger for 2026. Former Rep. John Fleming, now the Louisiana state treasurer, said he would run for Senate, citing Cassidy’s 2021 vote to convict Trump in his second impeachment trial.
Kim’s head start: Appointed New Jersey Sen. George Helmy is resigning this weekend, a move that will allow fellow Democrat Andy Kim to transition into the Senate early and get a head start over other newly elected senators. Gov. Phil Murphy appointed Helmy to the seat this summer after disgraced Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez resigned, and the governor is expected to appoint Kim to serve out the final weeks of Menendez’s term.
Senate leadership elections: Senate Democrats elevated Sens. Amy Klobuchar and Cory Booker to the Nos. 3 and 4 spots in leadership, respectively, while keeping Sen. Charles E. Schumer as their leader and Sen. Richard J. Durbin as whip for the new Congress.
Trump’s health picks: Roll Call’s Ariel Cohen reports that if there’s one thing Trump’s intended nominees to key health agencies have in common, it’s their criticism, to varying degrees, of the Biden administration’s handling of COVID-19.
ICYMI
CLF change: Chris Winkelman will lead the Congressional Leadership Fund, the top House GOP super PAC, and its sister organization, American Action Network, for the 2026 cycle, CLF announced Wednesday. Winkleman, who most recently was the executive director of the National Republican Congressional Committee, follows Dan Conston, a top ally of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who led the groups for the past six years.
Animal allies: Animal Wellness Action, a PAC dedicated to animal rights, is celebrating wins by several House incumbents this year: Republican Reps. David Valadao of California, Nancy Mace of South Carolina and Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania as well as Democratic Rep. Don Davis of North Carolina. The group also backed three Democratic challengers who won: Gray and Derek Tran of California and John Mannion of New York. All of the winners oppose the EATS Act, a bill that would overturn state laws that ensure the humane housing of farm animals.
Mills mulling it: Maine Gov. Janet Mills, a Democrat, didn’t rule out challenging GOP Sen. Susan Collins in 2026. Mills previously said she didn’t plan to run for another office after winning a second term in 2022. There appears to be some mutual respect between the two: The governor congratulated Collins on becoming chair of the Appropriations Committee, while Collins’ spokeswoman said they’d expect a “professional, issues-oriented campaign” if Mills ran.
On the calendar: Florida will hold special elections in the 1st and 6th Districts on April 1, preceded by Jan. 28 primaries. The 1st District seat is open after former Rep. Matt Gaetz said he wouldn’t return to Congress next year after abruptly resigning last month, while 6th District Rep. Michael Waltz is set to become Trump’s national security adviser in January. Trump has endorsed Jimmy Patronis, Florida’s chief financial officer, to succeed Gaetz and newly elected state Sen. Randy Fine in the 6th District.
New Dem PAC: Michigan Rep. Haley Stevens will chair the New Democrat Coalition Action Fund, the center-left group’s political arm, for the 2026 cycle.
What we’re reading
Talking about Tulsi: The Honolulu Civil Beat has been covering former Democratic Rep. Tulsi Gabbard for more than a decade, dating back to her time on the Honolulu City Council. The news site chronicles her shift over that span from liberal Democrat to Trump’s pick to become director of national intelligence, tracing her “uniquely intriguing path from local politician to national household name.”
Clash of the titans: The Dallas Morning News examines the brewing tensions between two giants of Republican politics in Texas: Sen. John Cornyn and state Attorney General Ken Paxton, who may challenge Cornyn in 2026.
Mea non culpa: Four of the key architects of Kamala Harris’ presidential campaign sat down with the “Pod Save America” team to discuss what went wrong for Democrats. But according to a stinging opinion piece in The Washington Post, campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon, deputy campaign manager Quentin Fulks and advisers Stephanie Cutter and David Plouffe blamed “everything but themselves” for Harris’ loss.
Michigan mayhem: Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan, a longtime Democrat, launched a gubernatorial campaign with a twist: He’s running as an independent. The Detroit News looks at how having a well-known third-party candidate on the ballot could affect the high-profile 2026 race to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.
The count: 7
The “beer question” — it’s a shorthand for assessing a candidate’s personal likability by asking voters which contender they’d rather share a beer with — has long been considered a predictor of presidential success. Yet, despite the apparent appeal of a hypothetical drinking buddy, every winning presidential ticket since 2000 has featured a teetotaler. That streak extended to seven elections this year with Donald Trump’s victory.
George W. Bush, who kicked off the streak, gave up alcohol in 1986, citing his faith and concerns about his behavior while drinking. Joe Biden has famously avoided alcohol his entire life, having seen the devastating effects of addiction on his family. Trump has cited his brother’s struggles with alcoholism and early death for his abstention.
— by Roll Call’s Ryan Kelly
Nathan’s notes
CQ Roll Call elections analyst Nathan L. Gonzales takes a look at the Inside Elections’ Votes Above Replacement metric for the 2024 presidential contest, measuring Trump’s and Kamala Harris’ strengths relative to a typical statewide candidate of their party. In what really is not much of a surprise, Harris underperformed in the VAR metric in six of seven battlegrounds — Georgia was the lone exception — and 36 states in all.
Nathan also writes about how Trump, a man who built his political brand on winning, has selected more than a dozen “losers” for his Cabinet. At least 17 of the president-elect’s picks to join his administration next year have previously lost elections, Nathan wrote last week.
That list has since grown with more losing candidates joining the Trump team:
- former Georgia Sen. Kelly Loeffler, his choice to lead the Small Business Administration, lost a Senate runoff in 2021
- former Missouri Rep. Billy Long, who was picked for IRS commissioner, lost a bid for Senate in 2022
- Dan Driscoll, the Army secretary designee, ran unsuccessfully for the House from North Carolina in 2020
- Peter Navarro, who will serve as Trump’s senior counselor for trade and manufacturing, lost a 1996 House bid in California — as a Democrat. He also made several unsuccessful runs for local office in San Diego, including the mayorship in 1992.
Coming up
In addition to Kim being sworn in to the Senate on Monday, the Los Angeles Times reports that California Sen.-elect Adam Schiff will also be sworn in that day, after he won a special election last month to complete the unfinished term of the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein. (Schiff also won the race for the full six-year-term.)
That would result in Sen. Laphonza Butler, who was appointed to the seat last year after Feinstein’s death, leaving the Senate.
Photo finish
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The post At the Races: Full House appeared first on Roll Call.
