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By Daniela Altimari, Mary Ellen McIntire and Niels Lesniewski
A decision by national Democrats to fund a late, multimillion-dollar ad blitz in Texas and Florida doesn’t signify a shift in resources away from crucial contests in red states, Sen. Gary Peters said Thursday.
“We’re not taking away money from our must-hold races,” the Michigan Democrat, who leads the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said as he outlined the effort to support Colin Allred in Texas and Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in Florida.
The committee remains “very invested in Ohio,” where Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is facing an onslaught of crypto-backed outside spending boosting his opponent, Republican Bernie Moreno.
And, while polls show Montana Sen. Jon Tester looking increasingly vulnerable against Republican Tim Sheehy, “there is no world that you can conceive of where I’m not going to be in Montana right until the very end,” Peters said.
Still, the DSCC believes Texas and Florida represent the party’s two best opportunities to mitigate potential losses. The committee plans to spend big in those two contests, although Peters wouldn’t say exactly how big. He also dismissed questions about whether an investment less than six weeks before the election comes too late to have an impact. Voters, he said, are just now tuning in.
Both states have dashed Democratic hopes before. In 2018, the party thought it had a strong chance to oust Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, but Cruz wound up winning. In Florida, Republican Rick Scott, who is among the richest senators, has proven himself a master of eking out close victories.
Cruz is less popular now than he was six years ago, Peters said, and he predicted that an abortion rights ballot initiative in Florida would hurt Scott.
Peters said both Republicans are beatable this year. “We’ve got very strong candidates in both of those races and we’ve got the dynamics, especially with the abortion referendum in Florida,” he said. “The data is definitely showing some great momentum for us … particularly when folks get to know our candidates better … so we made the decision we’ve got to start investing.”
Republicans say they are ready. “The National Democrats coming in from their ivory towers in New York. D.C., and California tells Texans all they need to know. Just like them, Colin Allred is nothing more than a radical leftist with a radical record who would destroy Texas and accelerate the decline of America,” the Cruz campaign posted on X.
The ad blitz news came as Scott was receiving briefings and holding official events ahead of expected landfall of Hurricane Helene on the Gulf Coast.
Starting gate
Freedom to spend: Time was, appropriators and the House Freedom Caucus could be at odds. So how to explain the caucus picking Maryland Republican Rep. Andy Harris, a senior appropriator, to be its new chairman? CQ Roll Call’s Aidan Quigley does just that.
Tuesdays with filibuster: Senate Republicans blocked another abortion-related resolution on the floor on the same day that Vice President Kamala Harris said on the campaign trail she favored ending the filibuster so that Roe v. Wade could be codified. CQ Roll Call’s Ariel Cohen and Sandhya Raman have that story.
Lame: Congress punted spending decisions until the post-election lame-duck session, and when they return they might even punt into the next administration, according to Quigley’s reporting.
Judge me: Former Rep. Anthony Brindisi, D-N.Y., served a single term then lost a close race in 2020 to Republican Rep. Claudia Tenney. Brindisi now is a New York state judge, and he returned to Capitol Hill this week, making his case that he should be confirmed to a U.S. district court judgeship. CQ Roll Call’s Ryan Tarinelli was there for the Senate Judiciary Committee theatrics.
Unfinished business: Just after the House passed a continuing resolution to fund the government until Dec. 20 and prepared to leave town until after the elections, Democrats attempted to censure Rep. Clay Higgins, R-La., for a social media post disparaging Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio. After a confusing back-and-forth on the floor, Rep. Steven Horsford, D-Nev., “introduced a resolution to censure Higgins, which he read on the floor, and invoked procedures that would allow it to take precedence over other House business.” That would mean, though, that any vote would have to wait until after Election Day, CQ Roll Call’s Daniel Hillburn and Victor Feldman report. At least one vulnerable House Republican, California Rep. John Duarte, called on Higgins to apologize for his comments.
New word — “incumbenty”: What’s it like covering a presidential campaign with a current vice president, a former president and a current president? The latest Political Theater podcast gets into that.
ICYMI
Big Sky numbers: Nathan Gonzales and Jacob Rubashkin discuss their recent polling in Montana’s 1st District House race in the Inside Elections Podcast.
Let us count the ways: A bipartisan Senate report details the “stunning failure” of the Secret Service in protecting former President Donald Trump from a failed assassination attempt in July, CQ Roll Call’s Chris Johnson reports.
Alsobrooks’ taxes: CNN reports that Maryland’s Democratic Senate nominee Angela Alsobrooks improperly claimed property tax deductions on properties in both Maryland and Washington, D.C.
Hogan’s backers: Maryland’s Future, a super PAC advocating for former Gov. Larry Hogan, the GOP nominee running against Alsobrooks, released a new ad Wednesday touting the Republican’s bipartisanship in Annapolis. The same group booked $18.2 million in ad buys Tuesday, Politico reported.
Gallego’s margin: The latest Marist poll, released at midnight Eastern time, showed Rep. Ruben Gallego ahead of Republican Kari Lake by 10 points, well outside the margin of error, even as the presidential race was a toss-up, with their survey showing Trump ahead of Harris by 1 point.
DCCC ad deluge: The DCCC has been releasing ads, well, all over the place this week. For instance, the independent expenditure operation has a new spot against Laurie Buckhout in North Carolina’s 1st District featuring photos of Buckhout with Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson.
CLF ads: Meanwhile, the Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC with ties to House GOP leaders, is expanding its advertising effort. The group is adding two races to its fall blitz: an open seat in Southern California, where it is backing Scott Baugh, and Iowa’s 1st District, where the group is defending Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks.
More ads: BOLD PAC, the political arm of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, is spending $600,000 on an ad targeting Mayra Flores, an NRCC “Young Gun” candidate who is running against Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez in South Texas. And GIFFORDS, a PAC founded by gun control advocate and former Rep. Gabby Giffords, is launching a $1.1 million ad campaign to boost Democrat George Whitesides, who is running against Republican Rep. Mike Garcia in Southern California. The bilingual cable and digital ads will focus on reaching women and Latino voters, the group says.
Long Island in focus: New York Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, a freshman who is among the most vulnerable members up for reelection, hired the daughter of his longtime fiancée, as well as a woman with whom he was having an affair, The New York Times reported. D’Esposito faces a rematch this fall with Democrat Laura Gillen, which New York strategists said could be shaken up by the report.
New additions: The DCCC added John Avlon in New York’s 1st District, Whitney Fox in Florida’s 13th District and April McClain Delaney in Maryland’s 6th District to its “Red to Blue” program. The NRCC, meanwhile, added six candidates to its Young Guns program: Neil Parrott in Maryland’s 6th District, Paul Hudson in Michigan’s 3rd, Russell Prescott in New Hampshire’s 1st, Drew Johnson in Nevada’s 3rd, Mike LiPetri in New York’s 3rd and Orlando Sonza in Ohio’s 1st.
Buckeye Backlash: Moreno, the Republican trying to unseat Brown in Ohio, is facing blowback for comments he made about abortion. In video obtained by the NBC affiliate in Columbus, Moreno said suburban women are “single-issue voters” and he was puzzled why abortion is an issue for women past their childbearing years. His remarks were condemned by Democrats and at least one prominent fellow Republican. “Are you trying to lose the election? Asking for a friend,” tweeted Nikki Haley.
Good morning, Gracie: The FBI raided Gracie Mansion this morning, searching the official residence of New York City Mayor Eric Adams and seizing his phone. It’s been quite a week for Adams, who was indicted by a grand jury on corruption charges and had more top aides resign. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was the first member of Congress to call for his resignation. New York Gov. Kathy Hochul has the authority to remove him from office under extreme circumstances.
What we’re reading
Change-up pitch: Stu Rothenberg dives into an NBC News survey that showed more people said Harris represented change than Trump. Stu wasn’t surprised: “It seems as if Trump has been running for president for the past nine years. He is in the news almost daily, and as a 78-year-old white guy, he embodies the status quo, not change.”
Lobbyists’ workaround: Powerful lobbyists have found a way to skirt the strict rules limiting their ability to take members of Congress on lavish trips. An investigation by the Howard Center for Investigative Journalism at the University of Maryland, in partnership with Politico, found that lawmakers and their aides have taken at least 17,000 trips, many of them funded by “nonprofits with deep ties to lobbyists and special interests.”
GOP women gains: Our old friend Bridget Bowman spoke with Rep. Elise Stefanik, the House GOP conference chair, about her efforts to increase the number of Republican women in the House. Stefanik and other groups focused on growing the number of Republican women see a possibility to set a new record after the November elections.
Profiling Rosen: The Nevada Independent catches up with Sen. Jacky Rosen and finds the Nevada Democrat emphasizing a bipartisan message as she battles Republican Sam Brown.
NRSC 52: Axios reported that donors at the NRSC’s retreat in Sea Island, Ga., were told that Montana and Ohio are looking good for them, but getting beyond a 52-seat majority would be harder to achieve.
The count: 59 percent
CQ Roll Call’s Ryan Kelly ran the numbers and reports that’s the share of the vote cast for President Joe Biden by the constituents of Nebraska state Sen. Mike McDonnell, a 21-point margin over then-President Trump’s 38 percent.
With a nontrivial chance that the Electoral College victory comes down to a single electoral vote in November, Trump and other national Republicans have been pushing Nebraska legislators to return for a special legislative session to make a last-minute change to how Nebraska distributes its electoral votes and ensure that Trump receives the entire slate.
In 1992, Nebraska joined Maine to award electoral votes to the winner of each congressional district, as well as two at-large votes for the statewide winner. Although a split slate of electors has happened only twice in each state, 2020 was one of those rare occasions in both states. (Trump won a single elector in rural Maine, and Biden did the same in Nebraska by winning the Omaha-based 2nd Congressional District.)
The effort to give Trump an extra electoral advantage in the election just five weeks away needed only to have Nebraska’s 33 Republican state senators united in support to ensure a filibuster-proof majority. The 33rd Republican senator required, however, was Mike McDonnell, who left the Democratic Party to become a Republican in April of this year. McDonnell was being pressured to effectively cede the electoral power of his own constituents in the South Omaha district he represents.
On Monday, McDonnell effectively closed the door on the effort, stating, “After deep consideration, it is clear to me that right now, 43 days from Election Day, is not the moment to make this change.”
Trump responded by thanking supporters of the effort on social media before questioning McDonnell’s motives and party affiliation and deeming him a “grandstander.”
Key race: #MI07
Candidates: Republican Tom Barrett, a former Michigan state senator who lost a 2022 race to Rep. Elissa Slotkin, is once again running for the 7th District seat. But the seat is open this year with Slotkin’s decision to run for Senate. Now, Barrett is facing Democrat Curtis Hertel, also a former state senator who more recently was the director of legislative affairs for Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, a role he left to run for Congress. A libertarian candidate, L. Rachel Dailey, is also on the ballot. She took 1.9 percent of the vote in the 2022 race.
Why it matters: The 7th District is typically among the most competitive races nationwide and had one of the most expensive House races in 2022. Barrett is looking for a different outcome this November with better name recognition this go-around as he seeks an open seat, rather than challenging Slotkin, a strong fundraiser who’s held the seat since 2019. A late August Cygnal poll commissioned by the NRCC found Barrett leading Hertel, 48 percent to 43 percent, with 9 percent undecided.
Cash dash: Hertel led Barrett in fundraising as of July 17, when the candidates filed their most recent reports with the Federal Election Commission. Hertel had raised $4.2 million and had $3.3 million on hand, while Barrett had raised $2.8 million and had $1.2 million on hand. Outside groups are also getting in on the race. Congressional Leadership Fund has spent $640,000 so far, while House Majority PAC has spent $1.4 million. Americans for Prosperity Action has spent $192,000 supporting Barrett, while LCV Victory Fund spent $145,000 supporting Hertel, according to FEC filings.
Backers: Trump backed Barrett, while Slotkin backed Hertel when he launched his campaign last year. Both are endorsed by elected officials from their respective parties. Barrett has the backing of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the Michigan Farm Bureau’s AgriPAC, while Hertel is backed by the Planned Parenthood Action Fund and a number of union groups.
What they’re saying: Barrett has emphasized his military background and his role as a father in two of his recent campaign ads, which have featured his kids. He has criticized Hertel for signing a nondisclosure agreement while in the state Senate and negotiating with a Chinese-backed company. A recent Hertel ad touts his bipartisan work to lower drug prices and says he called out his own party on the border — a topic that, like other Republicans, Barrett also talks about. Another recent Hertel ad focused on abortion. A recent New York Times story looked at how Democrats are hoping a surge of enthusiasm from students at Michigan State University in the district will help their candidates.
Terrain: The 7th District includes Lansing, the state capital, and the surrounding areas. Biden would have won the district by 1.4 percentage points in 2020, while Slotkin won reelection in 2022 by 5.4 percentage points. Inside Elections rates the race as a Toss-up.
Wild card: Both candidates have family members who previously served in the House. Barrett’s great-grandfather was Louis Rabaut, a Democrat who served two stints in the House from 1935 to 1947 and from 1949 to 1961. He was the author of a bill to add the words “under God” to the Pledge of Allegiance. Hertel’s uncle is Dennis Hertel, who served in the House from 1981 until 1993.
Coming up
Who knows if we’ll get another Trump-Harris debate — but on Tuesday: Live! From New York! It’s the vice presidential debate starring Tim Walz and JD Vance!
Photo finish
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The post At the Races: Expanding states of play appeared first on Roll Call.
