Oil refineries, oil and gas pipelines, and nuclear stations are among the targets that Russia and Ukraine have agreed to temporarily suspend strikes on, the Kremlin said on Tuesday.
Reuters reported the list also includes fuel storage facilities, pumping stations, electricity generation and transmission infrastructure, such as power plants, substations, transformers, distributors, and hydroelectric dams.
According to the statement, the temporary moratorium on strikes on energy infrastructure started on 18 March and is valid for 30 days, but it could be extended by mutual agreement. If the agreement is breached by one party, the other party is also released from compliance, the Kremlin added.
Donald Trump was meeting ambassadors at the White House on Tuesday when he was asked about the Black Sea ceasefire.
The US president said “We’re in deep discussions with Russia and Ukraine” and restated his oft-repeated remark that “it’s a situation that should never have happened”.
Trump also said discussions on third-country monitoring of the ceasefire were still ongoing.
Updated
Black Sea agreement: What we know so far
Peace talks in Saudi Arabia with the US, Russia and Ukraine resulted in an agreement over the Black Sea on Tuesday. Here’s what we know so far:
The White House released two readouts from its talks with Russia and Ukraine, effectively announcing an agreement for a ceasefire at sea “to ensure safe navigation, eliminate the use of force, and prevent the use of commercial vessels for military purposes in the Black Sea” and to develop measures to implement an earlier agreement to refrain from striking energy infrastructure.
Ukraine and Russia will also “continue working toward achieving a durable and lasting peace,” the US statements read.
In a readout on the Russia–US talks posted by the Kremlin, Moscow said it had agreed to ensure safe navigation in the Black Sea, but only “after the following conditions are met,” before listing a series of terms, including the lifting of US sanctions on the Russian Agricultural Bank and other banks involved in food trade.
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the truce was effective immediately on Tuesday and that he would seek more weapons and sanctions on Russia from Donald Trump if Moscow broke the deals.
The United States said it is committed to helping Ukraine exchange prisoners of war, release civilian detainees and return “forcibly transferred Ukrainian children,” Reuters reported.
The Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in Ukraine will remain in Russia’s control, the Russian Foreign Ministry said, according to Reuters. The ministry said transferring control to Ukraine or other countries would be impossible, as would operating it jointly, because of concerns over physical and nuclear safety.
The Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in Ukraine will remain in Russia’s control, the Russian Foreign Ministry said, according to Reuters. The ministry said transferring control to Ukraine or other countries would be impossible, as would operating it jointly, because of concerns over physical and nuclear safety.
Trump has previously suggested the US take over Ukraine’s nuclear plants, an idea that Ukraine has rejected. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said a few days ago of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant: “If the Americans are thinking about how to find a way out of this situation, if they want to take it away from the Russians, invest in its restoration, this is an open question.”
The United States said it is committed to helping Ukraine exchange prisoners of war, release civilian detainees and return “forcibly transferred Ukrainian children,” Reuters reported.
The outlet has more on the origin of the deal:
The deal is effectively a return to the Black Sea Initiative, struck in 2022 with the help of Turkey and the United Nations, and to an accompanying three-year memorandum of understanding under which U.N. officials agreed to help Russia get its food and fertilizer exports to foreign markets.
Russia withdrew from the initiative in 2023, complaining that its own food and fertilizer exports faced serious obstacles, though Moscow is not currently facing serious problems getting its grain to market by the Black Sea.
While Russian exports of food and fertilizer are not subject to Western sanctions, Moscow has said restrictions on payments, logistics and insurance have amounted to a barrier to shipments.
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Russia said on Tuesday that the US agreed to lift restrictions on food, fertilizer and shipping in exchange for a Black Sea security deal and an end to strikes on energy infrastructure, Reuters reports, calling the move the “clearest progress yet towards a wider ceasefire”. The outlet has a rundown of which country gets what in the deal.
Here’s what’s in store for Russia:
The United States said it “will help restore Russia’s access to the world market for agricultural and fertilizer exports, lower maritime insurance costs, and enhance access to ports and payment systems for such transactions”.
Russia said it had agreed with Washington “to ensure the implementation of the Black Sea Initiative, which includes ensuring the safety of navigation in the Black Sea, the non-use of force and the prevention of the use of commercial vessels for military purposes while organizing appropriate control measures through the inspection of such vessels”.
The Kremlin said the deal on maritime safety would come into force after a series of conditions were met - including the lifting of restrictions and sanctions on a major agricultural bank, exporters of food and fertilizer and on Russian vessels.
Updated
Tulsi Gabbard, the US director of national intelligence, spoke to the US Senate intelligence committee Tuesday, saying before the agreement was announced that Russia is a “formidable competitor,” citing its cyber and nuclear capabilities.
“Among Russia’s most concerning developments is a new satellite designed to carry a nuclear weapon,” she said Tuesday before the agreement was announced.
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Russia says it has agreed to ensure safe navigation in Black Sea - but has demands
Russia said it would commit to a Black Sea truce once US sanctions are lifted on key financial institutions supporting its food exports.
In a readout on the Russia–US talks posted by the Kremlin, Moscow said it had agreed to ensure safe navigation in the Black Sea, but only “after the following conditions are met,” before listing a series of terms, including the lifting of US sanctions on the Russian Agricultural Bank and other banks involved in food trade.
“The United States will assist in restoring Russian agricultural and fertilizer exports to the global market, reducing the cost of maritime insurance, and expanding access to ports and payment systems to conduct such transaction,” Moscow said.
In its own readout of the talks, the US suggested it was planning to ease some sanctions on Russia’s food sector, stating that “the United States will help restore Russia’s access to the world market for agricultural and fertilizer exports.”
Moscow also said it wanted port service restrictions and sanctions on Russian-flagged vessels involved in the trade of food products—including seafood—and fertilizers to be lifted.
Separately, Moscow said the two sides had also agreed to develop measures to halt strikes on Russian and Ukrainian energy facilities for a period of 30 days, which the Kremlin said started on 18 March, “with the possibility of extension or withdrawal if either party fails to comply”.
Updated
Downing Street said it is “hopeful of the progress” after the announcement Ukraine and Russia had agreed to a deal on the Black Sea.
But the British government was unclear whether it would follow American efforts to ease some sanctions on Russia as part of the deal agreed on Tuesday, PA reported.
Immediately following news of the agreement, a No 10 spokesperson said: “Our position at the moment is that we are obviously hopeful of the progress.
“We are following developments closely.”
Human rights campaigner Sir Bill Browder warned against easing sanctions on Russia following the announcement of a ceasefire in the Black Sea.
He told the PA news agency: “This is missing the point completely.
“Russia can continue to pound civilian targets like hospitals, schools and apartment buildings and I’m sure they will.
“And by getting this concession, it saves Russia’s oil refineries which are one of the key engines of funding for their war.
“Furthermore, releasing Russia from sanctions is hardly an appropriate response to a country which has killed tens of thousands of innocent Ukrainians and done a trillion dollars of damage.
“There’s absolutely nothing to celebrate here.”
Russia confirms that Moscow has agreed to ensure safe navigation in the Black Sea, the Kremlin said on Tuesday.
Russia and the United States have also agreed to develop measures to halt strikes on Russian and Ukrainian energy facilities for a period of 30 days.
Updated
Ukraine's Zelenskyy says Black Sea and energy ceasefire effective immediately
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said a truce covering the Black Sea and energy infrastructure was effective immediately on Tuesday and that he would seek more weapons and sanctions on Russia from Donald Trump if Moscow broke the deals.
The United States said earlier it had made separate agreements with Kyiv and Moscow to ensure safe navigation in the Black Sea and to implement a ban on strikes against energy facilities in the two countries.
“If the Russians violate this, then I have a direct question for President Trump. If they violate, here is the evidence - we ask for sanctions, we ask for weapons, etc,” Zelenskiy told reporters at a news conference in Kyiv.
That’s all from me, Jakub Krupa, but my colleague Tom Ambrose is here to guide you through the evening with more reactions from Ukraine, US, Russia and Europe as soon as we get them.
US state secretary Marco Rubio just welcomed the foreign ministers of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania to Washington DC, but the entire media coverage of their meeting lasted exactly 36 seconds as they posed for a picture in front of their national flags.
They did not respond to questions from reporters.
Updated
Movement of Russian military vessels beyond Eastern Black Sea would violate sea agreement, Ukraine says
The Ukrainian readout, posted by the Ministry of Defence on its Telegram account, confirms the main agreement, but contains some additional guidance not in the original text.
The statement, released in the name of defence minister Rustem Umerov, says that “the movement of Russian military vessels beyond the Eastern Black Sea will be considered a violation of the spirit of this agreement.”
It added it will also “be considered a violation of the obligations to ensure freedom of navigation in the Black Sea and a threat to the national security of Ukraine.”
“In such case, Ukraine will have the full right to exercise the right to self-defence,” it noted.
Curiously, it also goes further than the US statement on the energy strikes, saying that “all parties agreed to implement the agreements … on a complete ban on attacks on the energy infrastructure of Ukraine and Russia.”
The statement also added that “for the effective implementation of the agreements, it is important to hold additional technical consultations as soon as possible to agree on all the details and technical aspects of the implementation, monitoring and control of the agreements.”
Let’s see what comes out of Russia.
Two very similar readouts show every word matters - snap analysis
It’s worth noting that while we technically got two separate statements on US talks with Ukraine and Russia, they are very, very similar.
In fact, the key parts on ceasefire at sea and agreement “to develop measures for implementing” the ban on energy infrastructure strikes are literally the same to avoid any confusion in interpreting what has been agreed by the sides.
After US president Donald Trump spoke with Russian president Vladimir Putin earlier this month, the two sides issued completely different readouts, leading to confusion over the extent of the ban on strikes on infrastructure and whether it only covered energy, or also critical civilian infrastructure.
This time we get two very similar texts, only marginally customised to cover individual discussions: with Russia, on restoring its access to agricultural and fertiliser exports; with Ukraine on returning prisoners of war, civilian detainees, and forcibly transferred Ukrainian children.
Let’s see what details come out in further briefings we are surely going to get from the other sides of the agreement: Ukraine and Russia.
Updated
US says it has agreed sea ceasefire with Russia, Ukraine to ensure 'safe navigation in Black Sea'; will 'develop measures' to stop energy strikes
The White House has just published two readouts from its talks with Russia and Ukraine, effectively announcing an agreement for a ceasefire at sea “to ensure safe navigation, eliminate the use of force, and prevent the use of commercial vessels for military purposes in the Black Sea.”
It also said the two countries agreed to “develop measures for implementing” the earlier agreement to stop strikes against energy infrastructure, both statements said.
Ukraine and Russia will also “continue working toward achieving a durable and lasting peace,” the statements read.
In the Ukraine-specific readout, the White House also said the US confirmed it “remains committed to helping achieve the exchange of prisoners of war, the release of civilian detainees, and the return of forcibly transferred Ukrainian children.”
The Russia-specific document noted that the US would help “restore Russia’s access to the world market for agricultural and fertiliser exports, lower maritime insurance costs, and enhance access to ports and payment systems for such transactions.”
Both versions ended stressing that “the United States reiterated President Donald J. Trump’s imperative that the killing on both sides of the Russia-Ukraine conflict must stop, as the necessary step toward achieving an enduring peace settlement.”
“To that end, the United States will continue facilitating negotiations between both sides to achieve a peaceful resolution, in line with the agreements made in Riyadh,” they said.
Updated
'No evidence' to suggest Heathrow substation fire was suspicious, UK police says
The UK police investigating the fire of the electricity substation in Hayes that disrupted the operations of Heathrow airport and European air space last Friday have confirmed it found “no evidence to suggest that the incident was suspicious in nature.”
It said it was “no longer treating this as a potentially criminal matter,” supporting other partners as they look into what caused the fire.
“Should any relevant new information or evidence come to light it will be looked at and considered as appropriate,” they said.
Updated
Fury in Denmark over US senator's comments Greenlanders are 'all in' on US plans
Republican US senator Tommy Tuberville claimed in an interview with Fox Business earlier that Greenlanders are “all in on it,” referring to US plans to take control over the semi-autonomous Danish territory.
His comments sparked a furious reaction from Danish diplomats and lawmakers, adding fuel to the growing frustration with what they see as the US interference in Danish and Greenlandic politics.
Danish ambassador Jesper Møller Sørensen told Tuberville in a social media post that he “simply got this wrong.”
“You have to revisit your facts on Greenland, including what the people want.
It is not respectful to send a delegation of senior officials at this time, when the Greenlandic politicians say that they do not want this visit.”
Rasmus Jarlov, outspoken chair of the defence committee in the Danish parliament, went further saying “it is very hard to deal with this.”
“The leader of Greenland viciously says no. Every single member of the Greenlandic parliament says no. They just had an election two weeks ago. No one who wants to be American was elected. Not a single one,” he said.
He added that a recent poll showed that 85% of Greenlanders are against leaving Denmark, and only 6% backed the move towards the US.
He continued:
“It is almost unanimous. Never has a NO been clearer.
Yet these [expletive] people just continue to lie and tell the American public that people in Greenland want to be part of the USA. And the American ‘journalists’ let them get away with it.
It is unbelievable.”
Updated
Earlier I brought you the latest comments from Danish prime minister Mette Frederiksen, talking about the “unacceptable” pressure put by the US on Greenland with this week’s visits of vice-president JD Vance’s wife, Usha Vance, and senior US officials (11:45).
Here is a video of what she said:
UK refuses to criticise US officials and their Signal comments on Europe
On the earlier topic of US Signal group on Yemen, we've had an on-the-record reaction from the UK, with prime minister Keir Starmer’s spokesperson refusing to directly criticise the two figures who were most critical of Europe, JD Vance, the vice-president, and Pete Hegseth, the defence secretary.
And the spokesperson insisted that the UK remains happy to share intelligence with the US despite the leak, which involved detailed planning for a military attack being shared inadvertently on Signal, a commercial chat app, with a journalist.
Asked if the government was satisfied that any intelligence it shared with the Trump administration would be properly handled, the spokesperson relied:
Yes. The US is our closest ally when it comes to intelligence and defence. We have a longstanding relationship on intelligence and defence cooperation … We will continue and continue to build on the very strong relationship we already have with the US.
The spokesperson would not discuss the leak in detail. But asked if the government was “100% confident” about sharing secret information with the US, the spokesperson replied: “Yes.”
For more UK reactions, you can follow my colleague Andrew Sparrow’s live blog here:
Russia ready to strike new Black Sea deal if Washington 'orders' Zelenskyy to respect it, Lavrov claims
We’re getting more lines from Russia on its talks with the US over the weekend and on Monday.
Reuters is reporting that Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov claimed the country was willing to strike a new agreement on the safety of shipping in the Black Sea – a possible stepping stone towards a ceasefire with Ukraine – but only if the United States ordered President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to respect it.
Each side criticised the other over the collapse in 2023 of an earlier agreement intended to ensure the safety of merchant shipping in the Black Sea after Russia sent tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine in February 2022, Reuters said.
“We will need clear guarantees. And given the sad experience of agreements with just Kyiv, the guarantees can only be the result of an order from Washington to Zelenskyy and his team to do one thing and not the other,” Lavrov said in televised comments.
Reuters noted that Lavrov’s comments indicated that Russia will demand a further tightening of US pressure on Zelenskyy before it will agree to a maritime ceasefire, which Washington says would be an important step towards a more comprehensive truce.
In his regular update last night, Zelenskyy said that “Russia remains the only actor dragging this war out, jeering at both our people and the global community,” as he called for “strong actions” to “push Russia toward peace.”
Updated
Russia sought to blame Ukraine for blocking a joint US-Russian statement on progress made in peace talks in Saudi Arabia, with senior Russian senator Vladimir Chizhov telling state TV channel Rossiya-24:
“The fact that they sat for 12 hours and apparently agreed on a joint statement, which was not adopted though because of Ukraine’s position, is very typical and symptomatic,” Reuters reported.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that “there is an understanding that the contacts will continue, but there is nothing concrete at the moment.”
'Not security posture I am used to with Americans,' former head of Dutch cybersecurity says on Signal group blunder
A former head of Dutch cybersecurity has expressed his surprise at Donald Trump’s top team’s use of Signal for classified communications that revealed “visceral anti-European messaging”.
Bart Groothuis, an MEP for the Dutch liberal VVD party, who used to run the cybersecurity bureau at the Dutch ministry of defence, said he was “a bit surprised” at the US government’s use of a commercial app for highly classified conversations.
“This is not the security posture I am used to when it comes to the Americans,” he told the Guardian, adding he was struck by the “visceral anti-European messaging from both Vice President Vance and others”.
Groothuis, who is also vice-chair of the European parliament’s Iranian relations committee, also expressed bafflement at the suggestion that the US had no interest in containing the Houthis, an Iranian-backed proxy group, which has carried out attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea.
In the exchanges, US vice-president JD Vance said only 3% of US trade goes through the Suez canal, compared with 40% of European trade, arguing that the US was doing what Europe should do. “I just hate bailing Europe out again,” Vance said.
Groothuis said “what they fail to understand” is that the Houthis were an Iranian proxy and their containment was about “putting maximum pressure” on the Iranian regime and its nuclear ambitions.
“So it is also in the American interest and the direct American interest to keep a lid on the proxies of Iran,” he said. “Did it ever occur to them that it is in the direct interest of the US itself?”
Updated
Nearly three quarters of Europeans think their country benefits from EU, study finds
A historic high of nearly three quarters of European citizens think their country benefits from EU membership, amid increasing geopolitical turbulence.
According to the latest Eurobarometer survey, 74% of people think their country benefits from EU membership, the best result since this question was first asked in 1983, reflecting an increasingly positive mood since 2010 when the union was in the depths of the eurozone financial crisis.
The poll commissioned by the European parliament surveyed 26,354 people over fifteen across the 27 member states over January and early February, a time when Donald Trump returned to the White House, but before some of his officials’ most hostile statements towards European allies.
More than a third of respondents (36%) picked out defence and security from a list as priorities the EU should focus on to reinforce its position in the world, followed by competitiveness and economy (32%), energy independence and resources (27%).
But asked to pick their top priority to be addressed by the European parliament, the most popular choice (46%) was inflation, rising prices and the cost of living, followed by defence (31%). Public health and the fight against the climate crisis both declined on this priority list in comparison with previous years, chosen by 25% and 21% of respondents respectively.
US putting ‘unacceptable’ pressure on Greenland, Danish prime minister says
Elsewhere, there is growing frustration in Denmark and Greenland over the growing US appetite to control the island.
The latest escalation comes as Usha Vance, the wife of US vice-president JD Vance set to attend the national dogsled race in Greenland later this week, with US national security adviser Mike Waltz and energy secretary Chris Wright also visiting a US military base on the island.
The visits are seen as interference with Greenland’s internal politics just weeks after recent elections, which did not show majority support for a closer relationship with the US, with a negotiation over the next government still on-going.
Outgoing prime minister Múte Boroup Egede criticised the visits and insisted “it must be stated in bold that our integrity and democracy must be respected without any external interference.”
But this morning the Danish prime minister, Mette Frederiksen, went further, calling out “unacceptable pressure” from the US.
She told broadcaster TV2 that the planned trips could not be seen as unrelated to increasingly assertive “statements and reports we have heard from the American side, starting in January and up until now.”
“It is clearly not a visit that is about what Greenland needs, or what Greenland wants,” she said.
“I have to say that it is unacceptable pressure being placed on Greenland and Denmark in this situation. And it is pressure that we will resist,” she told TV2.
“It is clear that when you make a visit in this way, and the Greenlandic politicians clearly say that they do not want the visit, you cannot interpret it as respectful,” she added, according to TV2.
In the new context of the upcoming visit of his wife, many commentators turned their attention to JD Vance’s interview with Fox from last month.
In highly immflamatory remarks, reported by us on Europe Live at the time, he claimed that Denmark is “not doing its job, and it’s not being a good ally” by not countering the Chinese and Russian use of sea lanes in the area.
Trump’s No.2 asserted that the territory is “really important to our national security.”
He said:
How are we going to solve that problem, solve our own national security?
If that means that we need to take more territorial interest in Greenland, that is what President Trump is going to do because he doesn’t care about what the Europeans scream at us, he cares about putting the interest of American citizens first.
For what it’s worth, Brian Hughes, spokesperson for the White House National Security Council, said the delegation aimed to “learn about Greenland, its culture, history, and people.”
Updated
US-Ukraine talks in Saudi Arabia have ended, source says
In the meantime, let’s get an update on the US-Ukraine talks in Saudi Arabia, with a source in Kyiv’s delegation telling reporters that they have now ended.
“The talks are over. All details will be announced later,” the source told a small group of media, including AFP.
New Bundestag off to a rocky start
In a sign of how different this Bundestag is going to be, the first sitting is already off to a rocky start as the far-right Alternative für Deutschland gets off the mark with a challenge to the practice of the longest-serving member chairing the plenary until a president gets elected, instead calling for the oldest member to be given the task (which, you guessed it, would have been an AfD politician).
The party argues that was the original practice before 2017, and which was only changed to prevent an AfD politician assuming the role.
Today’s chair is Die Linke’s Gregor Gysi, the longest-serving member of parliament, who began his political career in the Socialist Unity party in communist East Germany. The 77-year-old will be free to decide the length and content of his opening speech, and will chair the session until the president of the Bundestag is elected.
But speaking for the AfD, Bernd Baumann said the AfD’s Alexander Gauland would be “the legitimate and true oldest member of parliament” under the role, criticising the CDU/CSU conservatives for “prefering a figurehead of the radical left to a deserving veteran from formerly its own ranks.”
Gauland is a former CDU member and a former journalist who in 2018 downplayed Hitler and the Nazis as “just birdshit in our more than 1,000-year history”.
“It doesn’t do you any good to deny us all our rights,” Baumann said, adding that these “tricks” will not “prevent our rise.”
Other parties oppose the challenge, so it has no chance of succeeding and indeed fails – but the initiative sets the confrontational tone that we will see in this Bundestag more often, as the AfD uses its new, stronger position in the new parliament.
Updated
New German Bundestag meets for the first time
Elsewhere, the new German parliament is set to meet for the first time today, with the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) the strongest opposition faction.
My colleague Ajit Niranjan put together this brilliant explainer on what to expect from the new Bundestag, elected last month.
The 630 members of the Bundestag, 230 of whom are newly elected, will sit in parliament at a unique time in postwar German history. The AfD has doubled its number of seats to 152, while centrist parties are overhauling the country’s military and fiscal policy in response to rising threats to European security.
The MPs taking seats on Tuesday range in age from 23 to 84. The youngest is Luke Hoss, a student from the far-left Die Linke who has promised to give away most of his €11,000-a-month salary. The oldest is Alexander Gauland, a former journalist from the AfD who in 2018 downplayed Hitler and the Nazis as “just birdshit in our more than 1,000-year history”.
The new parliament contains about 100 fewer MPs than the previous one after the outgoing government reformed Germany’s electoral law to shrink persistent bloat. Fewer than a third of MPs in the new Bundestag are women, slightly below the share in the previous legislature.
Tense coalition talks are under way between the CDU/CSU, the largest faction in parliament, and the Social Democratic party (SPD). The chancellor-in-waiting, Merz, hopes to form a government before Easter.
The sitting starts at 11am CET, with a speech from Gregor Gysi, the longest-serving member of parliament, who began his political career in the Socialist Unity party in communist East Germany.
The 77-year-old will be free to decide the length and content of his speech, and will chair the session until the president of the Bundestag is elected.
Content of US-Russia talks not to be made public, Kremlin says
We are now hearing more from the Kremlin, with spokesperson Dmitry Peskov offering an update on the talks.
He has just said that Russia and the US are analysing the outcome of the talks before considering next steps as delegations reported back to their capitals, but – contrary to expectations – said the content of the discussions would not be published, Reuters reported.
Peskov added there were currently no plans for a phone call between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump.
Updated
Further US-led talks in Riyadh taking place today
If you are wondering where we are with US-led “shuttle diplomacy” on Ukraine, the latest update this morning said that Ukrainian and US officials were holding another round of talks this morning.
“We are still working with the Americans,” a member of the Ukrainian delegation told a small group of media including AFP.
This comes, as AFP noted, a day after 12 hours of talks between the US and Russian delegations on a partial ceasefire in Ukraine.
Russian media reported that a draft joint US-Russian statement had been sent to Moscow and Washington for approval, with the parties aiming to release it on Tuesday.
Stunning Signal leak reveals depths of Trump administration’s loathing of Europe - analysis
If Europe wasn’t already on notice, the extraordinary leak of deliberations by JD Vance and other top-level Trump administration officials over a strike against the Houthis in Yemen was another sign that it has a target on its back.
On the face of it, the strike against the Houthis had far more to do with the administration’s policies on protecting maritime trade and containing Iran than its concerns about Europe freeloading on US defense spending and military prowess.
But Vance appears determined to push that angle as a reason to postpone the strike.
Vance was contending that once again the United States is doing what Europe should be. It is consistent with his past arguments that the US is overpaying for European security and the derision he displayed toward European allies (almost certainly the UK and France) when he described them as “some random country that hasn’t fought a war in 30 or 40 years”. (Both fought in Afghanistan and the UK fought alongside the US in Iraq).
Then Vance went a step further. He tacitly admitted a difference between his foreign policy and Trump’s saying that the strike would undermine the president’s Europe policy – one that has been led by Vance in his divisive speech at the Munich Security Conference where he accused European leaders of running from their own electorates and of his Eurosceptic comments on Fox News.
“I am not sure the president is aware how inconsistent this is with his message on Europe right now,” Vance wrote. “There’s a further risk that we see a moderate to severe spike in oil prices. I am willing to support the consensus of the team and keep these concerns to myself. But there is a strong argument for delaying this a month, doing the messaging work on why this matters, seeing where the economy is, etc.”
At heart, the disagreement indicated that Vance’s views of foreign policy are not quite aligned with Trump. Trump broadly sees the world as transactional and optimists in Europe have claimed he could force a positive outcome by forcing those nations to spend more on defense budgets. But Vance appears far more confrontational and principled in his antipathy toward the transatlantic alliance, and has attacked European leaders for backing values that he says are not aligned with the US.
That makes Vance even more of a concern for Europe. Kaja Kallas, the European foreign policy chief, accused Vance of “trying to pick a fight” with European allies. Another European diplomat said: “He is very dangerous for Europe … maybe the most [dangerous] in the administration.” Another said he was “obsessed” with driving a wedge between Europe and the US.
Broadly, the administration’s policies on Europe are coming into focus. And there are few stepping up to voice backing for Nato or for Europe writ large. On a podcast interview this weekend, the senior Trump envoy Steve Witkoff mused about the potential for the Gulf economies to replace those of Europe. “It could be much bigger than Europe. Europe is dysfunctional today,” he said.
Tucker Carlson, the host and another Trump confidant, agreed. “It would be good for the world because Europe is dying,” he said.
Morning opening: New group, who this?
Look, we have all been there. Now and then, you get added to the wrong group on a messaging app (usually some spam), check your suspicions, leave it, and forget it.
It’s not quite the same, however, if you get added to a top-secret operational group by the US national security adviser alongside some of the most senior US administration officials, up to the level of the actual US vice-president, where they discuss strikes on another country on a commercial chat app.
Europe wakes up with astonishment to reports in the Atlantic – and the authenticity of the group confirmed by the White House – that “The Trump Administration Accidentally Texted Me Its War Plans” on strikes against the Huthis in Yemen.
There is a lot to be said about the foreign policy, intelligence implications of this highly-sensitive security leak, and we have key US reactions for you here.
However, one other thing that stands out in the texts revealed by the Atlantic is genuine and visceral resentment against Europe among top US officials.
JD Vance, of the Munich speech fame, says how much he hates “bailing Europe again,” arguing that the strike and the unblocking of routes would benefit Europe most.
US defence secretary Pete Hegseth joins in along similar lines: “I fully share your loathing of European free-loading. It’s PATHETIC.”
Other officials discuss how they could claim the costs of the strike back from Europe, with “further economic gain extracted in return.”
The leak raises major questions about the safety of sharing intelligence with the US, how it’s handled, and who has access to sensitive information.
Allies will also no doubt take note of the fact that the group appears to have been created just as US envoy Steve Witkoff may have been, erm, literally at the Kremlin holding talks with Vladimir Putin over Ukraine. This prompts further concerns. I’m sure the Kremlin wifi has strong privacy protections, right?
The breach comes at a particularly sensitive time as Europe waits to learn what has come out of US talks with Russia in Riyadh, so we are unlikely to hear many public reactions to these comments from seething Europeans. (But, by all means, add me to your secret groups and let me know what you think, European diplomats!).
But first reactions from some of former leaders and diplomats give you an idea of what they may think.
Former Swedish prime minister Carl Bildt noted that “in the amazing story of the Signal group coordinating Yemen air strikes, Vice President JD Vance once again comes out as driven by deep anti-European resentment.”
Former Polish ambassador to the US Marek Magierowski described the report simply as “chilling.” On Witkoff, he added: “Le Carré, Forsyth and Clancy together would not have come up with such an absurd scenario.”
It’s a long day ahead for us as we await update on US-Russia talks, and with the first sitting of the new German parliament, so let’s get going.
It’s Tuesday, 25 March 2025, and this is Europe live. It’s Jakub Krupa here.
Good morning.
