An asteroid that provoked fears of a potential disaster when it collided with Earth will actually miss us, latest estimates show.
The asteroid, officially known as 2024 YR4, recently flew past Earth and is on its way back in 2032. Recent estimates had suggested that there was a chance it could collide with Earth when it did.
Any collision would be localised, unlike the total catastrophe that wiped out the dinosaurs, for instance. But it could still be disastrous: the asteroid’s potential path crossed many of the world’s biggest cities, and could cause “severe blast damage” up to 30 miles from where it landed.
Over recent weeks, the chance of such a collision has been gradually increasing. Earlier this week, those chances hit a record high: Nasa said there was a 3.1 per cent chance of collision, the highest ever recorded for an object of its size.
Over recent days, however, those chances have dropped. And now they have dropped to almost zero, the European Space Agency said.
The chance of an impact now stands at just 0.16 per cent and is likely to fall yet further, ESA said.
”Thanks to new observations, Earth is now at the edge of our shrinking ‘uncertainty window’,” it wrote in its latest update. “If this trend continues, the risk may soon reach 0%.”
As astronomers gather better observations, they are able to better predict the path the space rock might take as it falls through the universe. That allows , which now stands at around 86 Earth radii.
There is still some chance that the asteroid will collide not with the Earth but with the Moon. In fact, those chances seem to have increased, and now stand at 1.2 per cent.
