Fantasy football gamers are tasked with making decisions at every juncture of their seasons. Whether it be the draft, setting lineups, making trades, or waiver claims … you name it, there is a choice to be made. Some of them are mundane, and others will drastically alter the course of your team’s fortunes.
One way to help mitigate the chance of a disastrous showing is to understand the amount of risk being assumed. Since the foundation of most any good fantasy roster is laid during the draft, we’ll focus our attention on which players offer the most potential in the face of unmistakable risk. You’ll also read about guys with greater risk than reward, despite being highly ranked or having an early average draft placement.
RB Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers
It has been more than two full seasons since McCaffrey missed time with injury, so he deserves credit on that front. The issue here is an average of 336 touches over those recent years for a back entering his age-28 season is disconcerting. CMC will be the top back drafted in most leagues this summer, and while he deserves such placement should he remain on the field, there’s justification for considering another player if you’re of the risk-averse nature.
TE Juwan Johnson, New Orleans Saints
No. 1 receiver Chris Olave is legit, wideout Rashid Shaheed is promising as a secondary option, and Alvin Kamara presents elite receiving skills. Beyond that trio — one of whom is far from a lock and the running back is getting long in the tooth — there’s an opportunity for someone else to rise up. Johnson flashed a few times in recent seasons, going for three TDs in the last four games of 2023, illustrating what he’s capable of providing. It’s unlikely he’ll develop into a weekly must-start, but Klint Kubiak takes over as OC and brings a more TE-friendly offense. The 20th tight end chosen, on average, before the June 12 foot injury, Johnson has a chance to present more than enough value to offset the assumed risk as a late TE2 flier.
RB Joe Mixon, Houston Texans
Turning 28 in July, Mixon leaves the only team he has known as a pro for a new opportunity in Houston. On the surface, it’s quite favorable, and one could argue an even better situation. Last year, Mixon was the most reliable he has been in recent memory, which still produced the fewest fantasy points per game since 2019. Despite being no stranger to injury — mostly dings and dents — Mixon very well could have one more strong campaign left in him. He’s an RB2 but has been overly reliant on scoring touchdowns in the last few years, giving the veteran elevated risk in his eighth NFL season.
TE T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings
A Week 16 ACL tear puts Hockenson’s Week 1 availability in doubt for now, but there’s still a chance he is ready in time. For now, count on a sluggish start to the year if he’s ready and/or Hockenson missing the first four games on the Physically Unable to Perform list. Either way, keep your expectations of him to a minimum early on. Later this year, the former Detroit Lion should round into form with an inexperienced J.J. McCarthy likely throwing his way at some point. There’s always a degree of risk when choosing a player who is coming off late-season knee reconstruction. It’s less of a concern from the tight end position.
WR Nico Collins, Houston Texans
Talent alone, Collins is a WR1-caliber player for fantasy rosters. The risk here is two-fold: We have just one season of strong play from him, and now he’ll lose copious targets to Stefon Diggs after the offseason acquisition. Yet, Collins is being chosen in as WR14, two spots ahead of Diggs. One is on the upswing of his career and the other enters the twilight of his playing days. Both can thrive as top-30 receivers, but it’s unlikely to expect each finish inside the top 15-20 WRs. Collins may prove to be the better bet, though it’s not without potential peril.
RB Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
While Kamara somewhat rebounded in 2023 after the worst fantasy season of his career, he averaged 2.9 PPR points more per game but still fell short of his 2017-21 average by 3.4 points. Kamara will open the 2024 season at 29 years old, and he has seen his rushing TD scoring rate go from 6.4% in the first four years to a mere 1.7% in the last three. During that same window of comparison, the star back also rushed for 1.1 fewer yards per carry. Second-year back Kendre Miller should cut into Kamara’s workload, and TE Juwan Johnson (foot) may see an increased target share if the injury isn’t a long-term thing. Age and mileage are the biggest concerns for the RB16 in ADP ranking.
TE Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons
Pitts enters what can only be described as a do-or-die season in Year 4. The 2021 first-rounder appeared well on his way to fantasy stardom as a rookie before stalling in Year 2 and never fully getting back on track in 2023. To his credit, the former Florida Gator progressively scored more touchdowns in each season played. Atlanta added quarterback Kirk Cousins in the offseason, and that’s the reward side of this risk. Will arguably the best QB of Pitts’ career be the difference maker? It sure seems like that has been the missing puzzle piece, and Pitts is a fine risk as a low-end TE1 with high-end upside.
QB Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
The 2023 rookie started out of the gate and missed parts of multiple games before the a Week 5 shoulder injury prematurely ended Richardson’s season. He was quite effective in the two games in which he attempted at least 25 passes, and the Colts have bolstered their weaponry in the offseason to put more talent around the second-year quarterback. Richardson’s most valuable asset in fantasy will be his legs, which opens him up to greater injury risk. The well-built passer has top-five upside if he can remain upright, but a fifth-round pick, on average, is the price of admission to find out. Draft him but be sure to back up Richardson with someone you’re comfortable as a weekly starting option.
WR Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers
The talented receiver has been plagued by hamstring issues to the extent that he sought out a specialist this offseason. Watson burst onto the scene in 2022 as a rookie with nine touchdown grabs from Aaron Rodgers. Last year, injuries robbed Watson of all but nine appearances. He still managed to track his rookie per-game fantasy production with Jordan Love operating as the starting quarterback, scoring 11.3 PPR points, on average. The vertical threat has the chops to post borderline WR1 numbers in the best-case scenario, so the reward is worth the WR44 draft investment.
