Fantasy football gamers are tasked with making decisions at every juncture of their seasons. Whether it be the draft, setting lineups, making trades, or waiver claims … you name it, there is a choice to be made. Some of them are mundane, and others will drastically alter the course of your team’s fortunes.
One way to help mitigate the chance of a disastrous showing is to understand the amount of risk being assumed. Since the foundation of most any good fantasy roster is laid during the draft, we’ll focus our attention on which players offer the most potential in the face of unmistakable risk. You’ll also read about guys with greater risk than reward, despite being highly ranked or having an early average draft placement.
RB Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers
It has been more than two full seasons since McCaffrey missed time with injury, so he deserves credit on that front. Unfortunately, he also suffered a calf strain in camp but is on track for Week 1. The greater issue here is an average of 336 touches over those recent years for a back entering his age-28 season is disconcerting. Furthermore, star left tackle Trent Williams is holding out with no end in sight. CMC will be the top back drafted in most leagues this summer, and while he deserves such placement should he remain on the field, there’s justification for considering another player if you’re of the risk-averse nature.
WR Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams
Don’t get this one twisted, Nacua is a gifted player who has proven himself. My gripe here is the expectations of a massive Year 2 jump. What does he need to do in order to live up to a ninth overall placement? That’s not WR9. He was the No. 4 receiver in 2023 with Cooper Kupp missing five games. More than 38% of Nacua’s 298.5 PPR points came in those contests, and the rookie’s PPR production dipped by 33% (-7.5 points/gm) when Kupp also was on the field. That brings him from WR4 down to WR18 among qualifiers for per-week PPR scoring. As of late-August, he’s on track for Week 1 after a minor knee injury. Nacua may take over as the true WR1 with a healthy Kupp, and the latter could miss multiple games, but banking on those things with a first-round pick warrants knowing what you’re buying. Investing a top-10 pick in someone who isn’t a sure thing can send your season sideways in a hurry, but that’s the cost of admission if Nacua is on your radar.
RB Joe Mixon, Houston Texans
Freshly turned 28, Mixon leaves the only team he has known as a pro for a new opportunity in Houston. On the surface, it’s quite favorable, and one could argue an even better situation. Last year, Mixon was the most reliable he has been in recent memory, which still produced the fewest fantasy points per game since 2019. Despite being no stranger to injury — mostly dings and dents — Mixon very well could have one more strong campaign left in him. He’s an RB2 but has been overly reliant on scoring touchdowns in the last few years, giving the veteran elevated risk in his eighth NFL season.
TE T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings
A Week 16 ACL tear puts Hockenson’s early-season availability on ice. Count on Hockenson missing the first four games on the Physically Unable to Perform list as well as a possible sluggish start to the year whenever he’s ready. Later this year, the former Detroit Lion should round into form. There’s an elevated degree of risk when choosing a player who is coming off knee reconstruction. It’s less of a concern from the tight end position.
WR Nico Collins, Houston Texans
Talent alone, Collins is a WR1-caliber player for fantasy rosters. The risk here is two-fold: We have just one season of strong play from a WR with notable injury history, and now he’ll lose copious targets to Stefon Diggs after the offseason acquisition. Yet, Collins is generally being chosen as WR13, seven spots ahead of Diggs, on average. One is on the upswing of his career and the other enters the twilight of his playing days. Both can thrive as top-30 receivers, but it’s a tough sell to expect each to finish inside the top 20 WRs. Collins certainly may prove to be the better bet, though it’s not without potential peril.
RB Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
While Kamara somewhat rebounded in 2023 after the worst fantasy season of his career, he averaged 2.9 PPR points more per game but still fell short of his 2017-21 average by 3.4 points. Kamara will open the 2024 season at 29 years old, and he has seen his rushing TD scoring rate go from 6.4% in the first four years to a mere 1.7% in the last three. During that same window of comparison, the star back also rushed for 1.1 fewer yards per carry. Second-year back Kendre Miller (hamstring) could cut into Kamara’s workload upon his eventual return, and TE Juwan Johnson (foot) may see an increased target share since his injury isn’t a long-term thing. Age and mileage are the biggest concerns for the RB16 in ADP ranking.
TE Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons
Pitts enters what can only be described as a do-or-die season in Year 4. The 2021 first-rounder appeared well on his way to fantasy stardom as a rookie before stalling in Year 2 and never fully getting back on track in 2023. To his credit, the former Florida Gator progressively scored more touchdowns in each season played. Atlanta added quarterback Kirk Cousins in the offseason, and that’s the reward side of this equation. Will arguably the best QB of Pitts’ career be the difference maker? It sure seems like that has been the missing puzzle piece, and Pitts is a fine risk as a low-end TE1 with high-end upside.
QB Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
The 2023 rookie started out of the gate and missed parts of multiple games before the a Week 5 shoulder injury prematurely ended Richardson’s season. He was quite effective in the two games in which he attempted at least 25 passes, and the Colts have bolstered their weaponry in the offseason to put more talent around the second-year quarterback. Richardson’s most valuable asset in fantasy will be his legs, which opens him up to greater injury risk. The well-built passer has top-five upside if he can remain upright, but a fifth-round pick, on average, is the price of admission to find out. Draft him, but be sure to back up Richardson with someone you’re comfortable as a weekly starting option.
WR Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers
The talented receiver has been plagued by hamstring issues to the extent that he sought out a specialist this offseason. Watson burst onto the scene in 2022 as a rookie with nine touchdown grabs from Aaron Rodgers. Last year, injuries robbed Watson of all but nine appearances. He still managed to track his rookie per-game fantasy production with Jordan Love operating as the starting quarterback, scoring 11.3 PPR points, on average. The vertical threat has the chops to post borderline WR1 numbers in best-case scenario, so the reward is well worth the WR40 draft investment even if he finishes as a No. 3.
