A look at the win/lead margins of major parties in the four States – Rajasthan, Telangana, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh – shows that it was not a close election in any of the States in 2023 Polls. Though the exit polls had predicted a close fight in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, results as of now show otherwise.
The win/lead margin is the difference between the vote shares of the candidates in the first and second positions in each seat. The win/lead margin is expressed in percentage points .
Table 1 shows the win/lead margin for the Congress alliance and the BJP in Rajasthan. The numbers in the table correspond to the number of seats won/led by the parties across various margins. The change in the number of seats from 2018 is also listed.
- As can be observed from the table above, in 28 seats the win/lead margin was less than 2.5% points (BJP and Congress alliance combined). In 16 seats the win/lead margin was more than 20% points. In 58 seats, the win/lead margin was between 10-20% points.
Table 2 shows the win/lead margin of various parties in Telangana. The numbers in the table correspond to the number of seats won/led by the parties across various margins. The change in the number of seats from 2018 is also listed.
- In 71 seats, the win/lead margin was over 10% points. Whereas only in 49 seats the win/lead margin was less than 10% points. In only 10 seats, the win/lead margin was less than 2.5% points. So, there were no surprises in store, with the State heading for a Congress win.
Table 3 shows the win/lead margin for the Congress and the BJP in Chhattisgarh. The numbers in the table correspond to the number of seats won/led by the parties across various margins. The change in the number of seats from 2018 is also listed.
- In 46 seats the win/lead margin was over 10% points, compared to 44 seats where it was below 10% points. In eight seats, the BJP was winning/leading with a thin 2.5% points margin, with the Congress doing so in 12 seats. So, the Chhattisgarh elections were relatively closer compared other States.
Table 4 shows the win/lead margin for the Congress and the BJP in Madhya Pradesh. The numbers in the table correspond to the number of seats won/led by the parties across various margins. The change in the number of seats from 2018 is also listed.
- The table shows that this was not a close election. With over 114 seats won/lead with a margin of over 10% points and only 40 seats with a margin of less than 2.5% points, the State was clearly headed towards a BJP win.
Also read: Telangana Assembly Elections 2023: All Muslim candidates of BRS and Congress trailing | Data
