South East Queensland has long been a popular tourist destination, with its glittering beaches, family entertainment and world-class eateries. In recent years, it has also attracted waves of new residents, ready to turn their holidays into more permanent arrangements. The most recent census revealed that in 2016-21, more people moved interstate to Queensland than to any other state.
By 2046, South East Queensland’s population is estimated to increase by almost 60%, to 6 million people. While the region is currently a rare mix of lifestyle and opportunity, this much change will bring challenges. So, we asked the experts: what needs to happen in SEQ over the next two decades?
Planning for 2046 must start now
Jackson Hills is manager of policy and strategic engagement at Q Shelter, the state’s peak body for social and affordable housing. As demand for housing and services grows, his organisation’s focus is on ensuring no one is left behind.
Jackson Hills, policy and strategic engagement manager at Q Shelter
“We’ve got a current unmet need in social and affordable housing, and a big population coming in,” Hills says. “How do we deal with both of those challenges?”
ShapingSEQ is the Queensland’s Government’s plan for future growth in the region.
According to the plan’s website, ShapingSEQ “sets the framework for how we can respond to our growing and changing region to enhance our already great communities and support the different needs and lifestyles of all Queenslanders”.
As part of the 2023 review, ShapingSEQ drives ways to “provide better housing choice by focusing on density and diversity in housing types, and considers how we effectively offer housing to meet the needs of essential workers in the region”. The review called for all South East Queenslanders to have their say on the plan, and be a part of shaping the future of their communities.
Hills says his sector would not ordinarily get involved in planning, but this time, it’s “critical that we do”.
“Lots of the work at the moment is very short term, because there’s high need now,” he says. “But it’s helpful to have long-term conversations, and to design a housing system that’s underpinned by understanding where the need is going to be, in what locations – what type of housing we’re going to need in the future.”
The housing mix will change
Hills says housing every Queenslander isn’t as simple as building more properties; those properties must also reflect the needs and demands of the people who will live in them.
“One of the things that the ShapingSEQ draft plan already shows is that we have a lot of detached homes,” he says. “There’s a massive gap in one- and two-bedroom properties. It probably won’t surprise you to know that that’s where a lot more of the affordable properties sit as well.”
Over the next two decades, Hills says it will also be crucial to look at where homes are built. “We’ve seen with urban sprawl already in Queensland that [development] has gone into locations that haven’t necessarily had the services, transport systems and opportunity that low- to middle-income earners need,” he says. “Even though it might be a cheaper housing option, we find they’re spending a lot of their budget getting to and from work, which defeats the purpose in some respects.”
According to The ShapingSEQ draft plan, independent modelling by the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI) will inform the final social housing target.
“Our preference, as a sector, is to have a good portion of the social and affordable housing in urban areas, which is close to services, opportunity, jobs, employment,” Hills says. “That’s why we’re excited about working through this plan with other partners.”
Government must support plans for more equal housing
Alongside the challenges of supporting the population as it expands, Hills says the next two decades could present opportunities to create fairer housing in the SEQ region, including through proposed new housing in the ShapingSEQ plan. “I liked the direction of the update: first, the target for social and affordable housing. To be honest, I think it’s quite an ambitious target, so we’re really supportive of that.”
Prioritising mixed tenure housing, which incorporates a mix of social, affordable and market-priced housing in the same location, can have positive benefits that reach far beyond the building. “We know that blended model works better for social and economic outcomes,” Hills says. “It’s about educating the community on what the fact of that looks like in their location. This plan creates a platform for that.”
SEQ of the future should balance lifestyle and practicality
Ultimately, Hills says, any future plans for housing should carefully consider what makes Queensland so appealing to residents in the first place.
“One of the reasons why people come to Queensland is it’s a beautiful place to live,” he says. “With so much population growth, getting the balance right – in terms of amenity, lifestyle and population – is really important, and [ensuring] that it doesn’t discriminate.”
People living in social and affordable accommodation should also be able to enjoy the many benefits of living in South East Queensland, from its proximity to nature and open water, to events such as the upcoming Brisbane 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games. While building higher-density housing may require changes to the way land is used, Hills says that with careful planning, the region’s existing appeal can be maintained.
