As tensions escalate in the South China Sea and Myanmar plunges deeper into a civil war, hopes for progress in resolving these issues during Indonesia's chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have been largely unmet. Now, as Laos takes over as the rotating chair, many remain skeptical about the bloc's ability to effectively address these pressing challenges.
Indonesia, as ASEAN's largest country, had initially raised hopes that it could make significant strides in calming the South China Sea disputes and resolving the crisis in Myanmar. However, despite over 180 engagements with stakeholders in Myanmar, Indonesia was unable to achieve a breakthrough. The military leadership in Myanmar has ignored ASEAN's 'Five-Point Consensus' plan for peace, while the humanitarian crisis continues to worsen, with millions displaced due to escalating violence, as reported by the United Nations.
The general consensus among experts is that ASEAN has limited leverage over Myanmar as the military junta shows little regard for the bloc's efforts. Even during Indonesia's chairmanship, the establishment of an official office of the special envoy and the troika mechanism comprising Indonesia, Laos, and Malaysia were unable to sway Myanmar's ruling military council. Indonesia's ongoing engagement with Myanmar will now be carried forward by Laos, although many doubters question whether Laos, as an ASEAN nation sharing a border with Myanmar, will approach the situation with its own perspective.
Laos, being one of the poorest and smallest ASEAN countries, may prioritize maintaining cross-border security cooperation with the Myanmar junta. Some experts believe that Laos, given its close ties to China, might see it in their interest to ensure the junta remains in power. However, the reality on the ground may not align with such intentions.
Currently, the Myanmar military is facing increasing pressure from a coordinated offensive launched by powerful militias, some of which have garnered support from China. Laos, with its strong ties to Beijing, may seek Chinese support in resolving the conflict. Both the junta and the opposing groups are vying for China's favor. However, it remains uncertain whether China, which maintains a policy of non-interference in the internal affairs of other states, would be willing to play a more significant role in ending the conflict, especially with the divergent opinions within ASEAN.
Aside from the Myanmar crisis, the South China Sea disputes continue to loom over the region. China's claims of sovereignty over most of the South China Sea have sparked contention with ASEAN members such as the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Taiwan, and Brunei, who have their own claims over islands, reefs, and resources in the region. Indonesia has also expressed concerns over Beijing's encroachment into its exclusive economic zone in the waters.
While ASEAN and China agreed to a declaration in 2012 to seek a peaceful resolution to the disputes, recent events have shown little signs of goodwill. The tensions between China and the Philippines escalated in 2021, raising concerns about a potential major conflict that could involve the United States, a longstanding ally of the Philippines. China's coast guard employed aggressive tactics, including the use of military-grade laser and water cannons against Philippine vessels, prompting numerous diplomatic protests.
Under Laos' leadership, it is unlikely that the situation will change, particularly due to its close ties with Beijing. Laos previously managed to strike a balance between all sides during its chairmanship in 2016, although the outcome was dubbed as making everyone equally unhappy. However, experts note that Laos has become increasingly dependent on China, with significant debts to Chinese state banks for various infrastructure projects. This dependency is likely to influence Laos' approach, with expectations that it will maintain the status quo rather than taking significant action.
As ASEAN ministers gather in Luang Prabang for their first top-level meetings of the year, there is a pessimistic outlook that the bloc can effectively address the region's biggest challenges. Disputes in the South China Sea and the ongoing crisis in Myanmar continue to pose significant threats to stability and peace in Southeast Asia. The question remains whether Laos, with its limited resources and growing reliance on China, can navigate these complex issues and bring about the much-needed progress.
