Russia shows no signs of calling off its invasion in Ukraine, with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov signalling an expansion of its territorial aims from the east to also include parts of the south.
Across the country, cities have been flattened and key infrastructure destroyed. In regions on the frontline, the attacks have been relentless as each side makes small gains in civilian areas.
It’s a humanitarian disaster. With men of fighting age not permitted to leave the country, many residents chose to stay to protect their homes, while some returned home after fleeing. They’re living among the rubble.
It’s also a strategic disaster: Ukraine’s domestic infrastructure and economy are key to its efforts to sustain the war against Russia, with one expert calling for humanitarian assistance to focus on reconstruction — especially as the West starts to look away.
Reconstruction ‘can’t wait’ until war ends
Donetsk is a crucial region in Russia’s offensive. After failing to capture Kyiv in the initial weeks of the war, Russia focused its efforts in the east and is attempting to advance from Kherson and Donetsk, where attacks have been near constant.
With Donetsk, Russia would control the entire Donbas region and could annex the eastern part of the country. Amid ongoing sieges, residents often have to go without water and electricity, worsened by water scarcity in the city thanks to a centralised and inefficient supply system.
Michael Shoebridge, director of defence, strategy and national security at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, tells Crikey that rebuilding critical infrastructure should be the focus of countries delivering humanitarian aid.
“Russian attacks haven’t just been on a front line, they’ve been against civilians and civilian infrastructure. That’s a traumatic thing for the whole population … but it’s also a factor that makes it harder to wage war,” he said.
Shoebridge said the world needed to examine the effect of the civilian destruction and casualties, and that countries supporting Ukraine should look at reconstruction and humanitarian assistance now — rather than after the war ends.
If international parties began protecting reconstruction, he said, Russia would be put in a difficult position by attacking the forces of multiple nations, especially if the United Nations brought in its peacekeeping “blue helmet” soldiers.
“How does a country sustain a war when it’s going through trauma and destruction?” he said.
“Reconstruction can’t wait till the war finishes.”
No peace to keep
Deputy head of ANU’s Strategic and Defence Studies Centre Associate Professor Garth Pratten tells Crikey that Russia’s brutality and resolve over Ukraine meant peacekeeping or humanitarian missions were dangerous.
“We shouldn’t use humanitarian efforts as a war deterrent, because you’re going to put a whole bunch of humanitarian workers who are by nature going to be non-military [in danger],” he said.
Humanitarian workers can become a target, with members of the UN’s blue helmets killed in Mali last year and white helmet humanitarians in Syria directly targeted by the Assad regime in 2019.
“Russia has already demonstrated that it’s quite willing to just ignore the established rules and norms of the international system without any great degree of discernment,” he said.
The war of attrition has been devastating, but Pratten said it wasn’t unusual for wars to wipe out entire regions — from Western Allies dropping bombs in civilian areas of Germany in World War II to full-scale destruction in Syria, the Balkans and Chechnya.
“Ukraine at some point in time is going to have to be rebuilt,” he said.
“But it’s going to be a massive job, which is going to take more than a humanitarian mission. It’s going to take the involvement of large multinational construction companies funded by big bank accounts from contributing countries.”
While the war drags on, Pratten said there was a question on how long Western nations will keep up their support.
The world is starting to look away
The world’s attention is starting to shift away from Ukraine. Bombardments haven’t stopped, but the global public is increasingly focused on other issues including inflation, local natural disasters and COVID-19.
Russian President Vladimir Putin seems to be banking on this, with the CIA saying Putin believes America will lose interest and resolve the war through its “attention deficit disorder”.
For humanitarian worker Gary, who asked for his surname not to be used, support is already waning. A former UK military personnel, he established Project Phoenix, a charity organisation that links up NGOs with aid workers and supplies, acting as a networker and communicator.
He told Crikey a key concern for locals was education — many kids had lost education due to COVID-19 lockdowns and were calling for better infrastructure to help them learn.
The humanitarian response had also “died down”, he said, with funding becoming “very dry”.
“I don’t think [donations] have ever been able to keep up. When you look at the sheer volume of the requirements, [donations are] almost a drop in the ocean,” he said.
Gary added that while many large NGOs were well funded, they failed to get where they were most needed and were slow to respond to local needs. Smaller organisations, he said, had better links with communities and were able to deploy faster.
He called for allied countries to diversify their donations and urged the world not to look away from the invasion.
