Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's U-turn on Sweden's NATO membership bid is fuelling speculation that he may be pivoting back to his traditional Western allies. Until now the Turkish leader has had something of a diplomatic love affair with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, even as the rest of Europe shuns him for his invasion of Ukraine.
All smiles, NATO secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg announced at this week's summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, that Erdogan had finally agreed to back Sweden's bid to join the defence alliance. There was handshaking and backslapping, and Erdogan was very much the man of the moment.
US President Joe Biden, who has criticised Erdogan's human rights record in the past, exchanged jokes with the Turkish leader. Biden's commitment to sell US fighter jets to Turkey is believed to have clinched Erdogan's support.
"This is portrayed as a big triumph for Erdogan," observed political analyst Sezin Oney, of Turkish news portal Politikyol. "The people are living through the daily reality of the economic crisis very harshly in Turkey. Now, for the time being, we've stopped talking about this, and it's Erdogan's triumph [instead]. Even part of the opposition is in awe.
"It does not matter if it's really a success; it's changing the agenda. And it's a big win for the West because Russia has had blow after blow in recent weeks," Oney said.
Turkey's opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu slammed the NATO love fest and accused Western leaders of ignoring Erdogan's human rights record in Turkey, where prominent political and civil society leaders are languishing in jail on flimsy charges.
But realpolitik and pragmatism appear to be the order of the day, with hopes growing amongst NATO members that a rift could emerge between Turkey and Russia.
Tit for tat
Even before this week's summit, Erdogan gave signals that all was not well in his relations with Moscow.
Last Saturday, Turkey released Ukrainian commanders who'd been held as part of a prisoner swap, which infuriated the Russian government. The soldiers were supposed to stay in Turkey until the war's end as part of a deal brokered by Turkey between Ukraine and Russia.
"Yes, we do have our differences," said Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov. "We do not hide them, either. But another part of our relations also serves the best interests of our two countries. These relations are important for us and the Turkish side."
Moscow has been quick to punish Ankara. Russia vetoed the extension of a United Nations aid deal for Syria. That means more suffering for millions of Syrian dissidents and their families trapped on the Turkish border and adds to the risk they may seek to flee to Turkey.
But Russia expert Zaur Gasimov of Bonn University predicts Moscow will be careful in its response. He says the Kremlin is aware Ankara's actions are more gestures than substantive, albeit a little humiliating – and that, crucially, Turkey continues not to enforce Western sanctions against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.
"Turkey and Russia have very different positions and very different interests in all regions," observed Gasimov. "But both sides are aware in all these sub-regions that they have to communicate to interact, and that is the extent of the cooperation."
He added: "It's not a mutual interest, but it's the understanding of how essential it is to cooperate and stay in a dialogue with each other."
Playing both sides?
Turkey is heavily dependent on Russian trade, especially energy. Putin deferred billions of euros in Turkish energy payments ahead of Erdogan's re-election campaign, which helped to avert a widely predicted currency collapse.
Given these interests, some observers question whether Erdogan has performed any real pivot back to the West.
"With Erdogan, never say never. Tomorrow he may just revert back to Putin," suggested political analyst Oney.
The Turkish president's strategy is "negotiating with Putin or having good relations in general and using this as leverage with the West, and having good relations with the West from time to time and using it as leverage with Russia", she said.
"I think it will continue. This is the foreign policy of Erdogan," Oney added.
Black Sea grain deal
But Moscow's threat to end a deal brokered by Turkey and the UN to allow the export of Ukrainian grain from Black Sea ports is further straining Russian-Turkish ties. Putin is calling for sanctions against Russia to be eased in exchange for renewing the deal.
Given the importance of the grain deal to Ankara, some predict there could be severe repercussions if Moscow vetoes its extension.
"Turkey really wants the grain deal to continue, and the signals coming from Russia are that the grain deal is coming to an end," observed Yoruk Isik, a geopolitical analyst in Istanbul with the US-based Middle East Institute.
"So before the Russians take any more action to really end this grain deal, Turkey is sending a signal that there are many things depending on Turkey, including Turkey not joining so far in any sanctions against Russia," Isik said.
For Erdogan, the grain deal has been a diplomatic triumph. If Moscow should end it, this would likely raise more questions over Turkey's balancing act between Russia and the West, and could provide Ankara with further impetus to move back to its Western allies.
