For the last few years the radical right Freedom party of Austria (FPÖ) has dominated opinion polls, outpacing historically mainstream parties such as the People’s party (ÖVP) and Social Democratic party (SPÖ). After devastating floods wreaked havoc in eastern Austria in early September, it appeared that the FPÖ might face renewed competition from the governing ÖVP, which presented itself as the chief manager handling the floods, and the Green party seemed poised for a resurgence. However, the recent national elections have yielded results that even the most pessimistic observers might not have anticipated.
In a historic first, the FPÖ under the leadership of Herbert Kickl won the national elections with 28.8% of the vote, surpassing the previous record held by his mentor Jörg Haider in 1999. This is the first time in postwar Austrian history that a party originally established by ex-Nazis, for ex-Nazis, won the national parliamentary elections. Kickl, the party’s leader and a hardline ideologue, pledged to become Austria’s volkskanzler (people’s chancellor), a term that has its roots in Nazi rhetoric. By openly advocating for what he calls “remigration” – the idea of pressuring people of colour to return to their perceived homelands – he presents the new right’s ideology in more palatable language. In addition, Kickl skilfully mobilised growing public discontent stemming from the management of the pandemic, as well as soaring inflation rates, to gain traction among disillusioned voters.
Kickl’s rhetoric resonates particularly in rural areas, where the traditionally dominant ÖVP has seen significant losses. About 443,000 votes out of a total of 1.4m supporting the FPÖ came from the ÖVP alone. In contrast, urban centres continue to support the SPÖ, which managed to maintain and even increase its foothold in these regions. The FPÖ attempted to appeal to Turkish-origin voters by framing them as well-integrated in juxtaposition to more recent immigrants with origins in Syria, Afghanistan, and Chechnya, but this strategy was ineffective, as election results in districts with a high Muslim population show.
The rise of the FPÖ reflects a broader trend of disillusionment with traditional political parties across Europe. In 1945, the centrist ÖVP and SPÖ collectively garnered an impressive 94.4% of the vote; today, their combined share has dropped to just 47.4%. Meanwhile, other emerging parties struggle to gain ground, with only the Liberals making minor gains.
What does this unprecedented victory mean for Austria’s political future? While the FPÖ has bolstered its presence in parliament, winning a projected 56 seats out of 183, the prospects for coalition-building remain murky. The current chancellor, Karl Nehammer, has ruled out a partnership with Kickl, even though the FPÖ shares many ideological similarities with the ÖVP, particularly on immigration and economic policies. The FPÖ could only form a coalition with the ÖVP if its current leader resigned. Similarly, any coalition with the SPÖ would require the leftist leader, Andreas Babler, to step aside for the more right-leaning Hans Peter Doskozil. Both scenarios seem extremely unlikely.
In this situation, the second strongest, the ÖVP, has the potential to negotiate alliances that could sideline the FPÖ. If the ÖVP were to engage with the SPÖ, possibly with the New Austria and Liberal Forum (NEOS) as a third party, it could not only become the leader of the government with its own chancellor on top; it could also increase its hold on additional key ministries, given its numerical strength (29%) versus the SPÖ (21%) and NEOS (9%).
The role of federal president Alexander Van der Bellen, a former leader of the Green party, adds another layer of complexity. Because of his aversion to Kickl, he may not uphold the usual expectation that the federal president will invite the strongest party to initiate coalition talks, a tradition that is not written into law but has been practised for a long time. He announced on X that he would do everything in his power to preserve liberal democratic values, signalling a potential barrier to the FPÖ’s ambitions to power-grab.
Ultimately though, the likely moves to be made will depend on the ÖVP, which has co-opted many of the FPÖ’s talking points in the past and, like many traditional parties of the right in Europe, has moved towards a generally more authoritarian political style. It has embraced anti-Muslim policies, implementing hijab bans, closing mosques, and criminalising the Muslim religion, as its various coalitions since 2013 – with the SPÖ (until 2017), the FPÖ (until 2019) and later the Greens (until 2024) – show.
The general authoritarian wave also includes curtailing free speech, limiting media powers and increasing surveillance and securitisation. As potential coalition partners consider their options, they must strive to craft agreements that resist the populist tide that has swept Austria. The FPÖ’s absence from power is only the first formal step in this direction.
Farid Hafez is teaching assistant professor of international relations at William and Mary University, Virginia, and senior researcher at Georgetown University’s the Bridge Initiative. He is the author, with Reinhard Heinisch, of Politicizing Islam in Austria: the Far-Right Impact in the Twenty-First Century
• This article was amended on 1 October 2024 to remove a reference to the Greens making small gains in the Austrian election; in fact, the party’s vote share fell by 5.7 percentage points. A reference to Herbert Kickl’s family having a connection to Nazism was also removed; this was based on an error in a recent biography of Kickl, which the publisher later corrected.
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