As Victorians endure a particularly cold start to winter, two major concerns resulting from a national energy crisis — rising prices and supply issues — have loomed large.
For the first time ever, the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) suspended the spot market for wholesale electricity across the country, to help secure reliable supply.
On Wednesday, AEMO's chief executive Daniel Westerman pointed to the situation in New South Wales as that of most concern, and urged residents to conserve energy where it was safe to do so.
Coal and gas-fired power generators are facing big spikes in their input costs due to both international and local factors, sending wholesale electricity prices in Australia soaring.
While its neighbour contemplated blackouts, Victorian Energy Minister Lily D'Ambrosio said late Wednesday she had been advised the state had "enough supply".
We asked some experts what makes our state different, and how Victoria's unique position may play out over the weeks and months ahead.
We are the only state that burns brown coal
Melbourne Energy Institute director Michael Brear said the fact that Victoria mined and processed brown coal set it apart from other states.
"We're the only state that burns brown coal to make electricity," he said.
"Brown coal is significantly lower cost than the black coal that is used to generate electricity in NSW and Queensland.
"If high prices persist across the national electricity market you would expect that brown coal generators are in a strong position to generate for others and make good profits while doing so."
Tim Buckley, an energy market analyst and director of Climate Energy Finance, said if there were indeed blackouts in some parts of Australia — it would not be because the country lacked supply.
Mr Buckley, whose work is focused on identifying opportunities to expand the use of renewable energy, said NSW and Queensland were some of the biggest exporters of black coal and gas in the world.
"They are now exporting coal and gas that is critically important for domestic energy security," he said.
He said the the brown coal mined and burnt in Victoria's Latrobe Valley was not exported overseas because its low energy content reduced its value.
But that "safety net" effect could be threatened by the fact the Yallourn coal-fired power plant, which usually produces about a fifth of Victoria's electricity, is not running at capacity at the moment.
Yallourn's owner, Energy Australia, said the brown coal-fired plant would operate at half-capacity while it underwent "unplanned maintenance".
Meanwhile another key part of Gippsland's coal-fired power infrastructure remains offline, and is unlikely to be back up and running until September.
AGL's Loy Yang A unit 2 first broke down in April because of an electrical fault.
A Victorian government spokesman said despite the outages at Yallourn and Loy Yang A the state still had 75 per cent of its capacity online.
They indicated the state was producing more electricity and gas than it needed, with the excess being exported to other eastern states.
Renewables are an important part of our energy mix
Ms D'Ambrosio said the national crisis highlighted the importance of investing in renewable energy sources.
"The reality is ageing coal generation is unreliable — highlighting why our transition to renewable energy is so important," she said.
Mr Buckley said Victoria's reliance on renewables was providing some protection, given the unreliability of the coal plants.
"There's nothing like domestic zero-emissions, cheap, renewable energy to actually underpin affordable, reliable and zero-emissions power for the people of Victoria," he said.
Data from AEMO from the past three months shows 27 per cent of Victoria's energy composition was made up of renewable sources, while 67 per cent was brown coal and 6 per cent gas.
In contrast, only 11 per cent of Queensland's fuel mix came from renewables, and 22 per cent in New South Wales.
Professor Brear said although renewables did help, they weren't the "full answer" to the complicated matter of electricity supply in Australia.
"Any form of generation helps, so if you make more renewable electricity, then that helps reduce the likelihood of inadequate generation," he said.
"However, there are times when, as they say, the sun doesn't shine and the wind doesn't blow, and something needs to provide that electricity during those times.
"Those controllable fossil fuel generators, both coal and gas, normally fill that gap and if you lose some of them for various reasons, then that gap may not be able to be closed."
During his time as chief scientist, inventor Alan Finkel also recommended significant investment in batteries and storage solutions to address fluctuations in renewable energy generation.
How might the weeks ahead play out?
Mr Buckley said Victoria could be hit with problems because it's part of the national energy market, and hence feeds power to other states when they're struggling to meet demand.
"There will be instability — it'll probably be somewhat imported instability from NSW because the market is nationally connected, at least across the east coast," he said.
Professor Brear said Victorians should not necessarily expect to experience power outages in the coming weeks, but the "widespread impact" of rising electricity and gas prices would kick in.
He said fortunately the winter months did not tend to require as much electricity across the grid as the demand during summer heatwaves.
"Electricity demand in winter peaks at lower levels than it does on the hottest days of summer when we've all turned on our air conditioning," Professor Brear said.
