As rumours swirl about Scott Morrison’s retirement from Parliament, the Liberal Party has already begun discussing who should replace him.
The two strongest and most obvious contenders are ex-NSW attorney general Mark Speakman and Sutherland Shire Mayor Carmelo Pesce. Both represent areas that overlap with the former prime minister’s electorate of Cook and both have long been seen as keen for the opportunity, although neither has confirmed it.
When Crikey hit the phones with those in the party, the names of other contenders came up as well, including ex-NSW MP Melanie Gibbons and Gwen Cherne, a family advocate commissioner at the Department of Veterans’ Affairs.
Gibbons, whose former state electorate is Holsworthy (just west of Cook), lost a bid for the seat of Kiama at the recent state election. She told Crikey she has no current plans to throw her hat in the ring in the event of a Morrison retirement.
“I’m taking a little break from politics at the moment,” she said.
Cherne did not respond to an email from Crikey. We’re told she has been floated as a possible contender for Cook by Senator Andrew Bragg, who was described by two Liberal sources as a supporter of hers.
Interestingly, Cherne has previously been touted as a possible candidate for the federal seat of Hughes — by Morrison, of all people.
The Australian reported ahead of the 2022 federal election that Morrison had tried to install Cherne as a “captains pick” in Hughes, which is also located in the Sutherland Shire area, and where the Liberal Party lost its footing when local member Craig Kelly defected.
There were two problems then, that might still be at play today.
“Cherne is a dual national [and] unable to stand for Parliament,” The Australian reported in April last year.
The American-Australian is also reportedly not a member of the Liberal Party.
Perhaps that’s why she’s seen as being able to rise above factional politics: her current supposed endorser, Bragg — who declined to comment — is a moderate, whereas Morrison is of the centre-right.
Speaking of factions, Crikey understands Liberal branches in the Shire are split three ways, with right-wingers controlling about 40%, moderates with 30%, and another, unaligned moderate faction with the remaining 30%.
The Liberal Party state executive would have a say in any future preselection as well.
Pesce, who also declined to comment, is said to be open to a tilt at Cook if Morrison retires and Speakman doesn’t run.
His mayoral tenure was described as “colourful” in a 2019 Sydney Morning Herald story: “He was threatened by a disgruntled ratepayer, hit by a drunk driver and subjected to an expletive-laden rant last year by [Kelly]”.
Speakman, a silk, a moderate, and the MP for the state seat of Cronulla, is reportedly weighing up his options following his party’s defeat at the recent NSW election.
“He wants it bad,” one source said of Speakman’s ambition for Cook.
Speakman’s other option would be to run for state opposition leader. That appointment will be decided at a party room meeting in the near future. The Liberals are waiting for the state’s electoral commission to finalise vote counting from the March 25 election before going ahead with the leadership ballot.
Check counts are due to finish Wednesday, and the official lower house results will be presented on Friday. The NSW seat of Ryde is on a knife’s edge, with the Liberal candidate just 50 votes ahead of his Labor rival.
Official upper house results won’t be known until April 20.
Speakman is seen inside the party as an obvious choice for NSW Liberal leader, and many of his colleagues reckon the only thing that could throw him off that path would be a run for Cook.
“There’s really only a few credible options for NSW opposition leader: Speakman, [ex-skills minister Alister] Henskens, and Robbo,” a source said.
Robbo is the nickname for ex-planning minister Anthony Roberts, who held on to his north shore seat of Lane Cove against a teal threat in the recent election.
A right-winger and one of the NSW Liberals’ most senior MPs, elected in 2003, Roberts told Crikey he was considering putting his hand up for the leadership position, although he hadn’t formally done so yet.
“Anyone who wants to take on the mantle of leading the [NSW] Liberal Party would need to also build a platform to win the next election,” he said.
If Speakman really is weighing up whether to run for state leader or for Cook, he’ll have to make up his mind soon.
The leadership contest will almost certainly happen before any potential Morrison resignation, and if Speakman goes for one, he’ll likely give up on the other.
Speakman, who couldn’t be reached by Crikey, told local Shire newspaper The Leader he’d had “fruitful discussions” with his state colleagues about the opposition leader position.
He did not rule out running in Cook.
“I’ll cross that bridge if I come to it,” he said during the election campaign.
So will Morrison actually retire? Some Liberals believe so, while others dismissed the idea as pure speculation.
Morrison’s office gave Crikey a simple “no comment” when asked about it, but he was slightly more talkative when reached by The Sydney Morning Herald at the weekend.
“I am focused on doing my job in my local electorate, helping the parliamentary party and supporting the leader,” he said.
That newspaper reported six of Morrison’s colleagues said he was expected to resign between the May 9 budget and the end of 2023.
If Morrison did retire, the Cook byelection would heap pressure on Opposition Leader Peter Dutton, who recently oversaw a historic defeat in the Victorian seat of Aston.
Cook has a margin of about 12.4%, much larger than what the Liberals had in Aston, but locals say they aren’t taking Cook for granted. A source said a popular and local candidate — such as Speakman — would have a good chance of retaining the seat.
“But if [factional leaders in the party] helicopter someone in, that’s a high risk,” the source told Crikey.
Who’s the hot pick for Cook? Can anyone fill ScoMo’s shoes? Let us know your thoughts by writing to letters@crikey.com.au. Please include your full name to be considered for publication. We reserve the right to edit for length and clarity.
Correction: A previous version of this story incorrectly said the Liberal Party head office would have a say in a future preselection. It is actually the Liberal Party’s state executive that would weigh in.
