With the NBA’s 2023-24 regular season officially complete, the Houston Rockets now have clarity on their odds entering the May 12 lottery to determine the 2024 first-round draft order.
No matter the results, Houston will own Brooklyn’s first-round draft selection, which enters in the No. 9 odds slot thanks to their 32-50 record. Houston controls Brooklyn’s own first-round draft capital through 2027 due to the January 2021 trade involving James Harden.
The odds for that pick are as follows:
- No. 1: 4.5%
- No. 2: 4.8%
- No. 3: 5.2%
- No. 4: 5.7%
- No. 9: 50.7%
- No. 10: 25.9%
- No. 11: 3.0%
- No. 12: 0.1%
- No. 13: 0.1%
Another way of framing it: The pick from Brooklyn has a 20.3% chance of being top four, a slightly above 50% chance of being No. 9, and a probability of just below 30% of being No. 10 or lower.
Now that the regular season is completed we can calculate the odds of each scenario for the Rockets in the 2024 lottery:
9th pick: 47%
10th pick: 24%
One top 4 pick: 18.7%
Top 4 plus the 9th pick: 3.7%
11th pick: 2.8%
Top 4 plus 10th pick: 1.9%
Two top 4 picks: 1.5% pic.twitter.com/vggqIXBCzZ— Andrew Soukup (@asoukuptx) April 15, 2024
As for the Rockets (41-41), Houston likely enters the lottery with the No. 12 odds slot. Unless that pick lands in the top four, it goes to Oklahoma City as part of the Russell Westbrook trade from 2019.
However, unlike the pick headed from Brooklyn to Houston, the one slated to go from Houston to Oklahoma City does at least have a chance to not convey, depending on the lottery outcome.
Here’s a look at those percentages, should Houston stay at No. 12:
- No. 1: 1.5%
- No. 2: 1.7%
- No. 3: 1.9%
- No. 4: 2.1%
- No. 12 or lower (pick goes to OKC): 92.9%
There is a small chance that Houston could jump to the No. 11 odds slot, if the Chicago-Atlanta winner defeat the Philadelphia-Miami loser in this week’s Eastern Conference play-in tournament. Since both the Bulls (39-43) and Hawks (36-46) had worse records than the Rockets, they currently own higher odds slots. However, that would change if one unexpectedly makes the playoffs.
In that remote No. 11 odds slot scenario, the odds would be:
- No. 1: 2.0%
- No. 2: 2.2%
- No. 3: 2.4%
- No. 4: 2.8%
- No. 11 or lower (pick to OKC): 90.6%
Whether Houston enters at No. 11 or No. 12 in the order, the odds are greater than 90% that the pick will go to the Thunder.
That said, it’s worth noting that the incoming selection from Brooklyn is already guaranteed to be higher than the outgoing pick to Oklahoma City, since the only way Houston’s pick could be ahead of Brooklyn’s selection is if Houston wins one of the four lottery selections. In that scenario, the Rockets would own both picks.
Houston also gets a 2024 second-round draft pick from Golden State (46-36), which will be at No. 43, 44, or 45 in the overall order. That will be decided by a random draw tiebreaker at a latest date.
#Rockets Draft Picks Update:
Brooklyn will have the 9th spot in the lottery.
Houston will have the 12th* spot in the lottery.
(Can be 11th if CHI/ATL winner beats PHI/MIA loser)Golden State's 2nd rounder will be 43rd, 44th or 45th.
— David Weiner #🟦 (@BimaThug) April 14, 2024
