Given a choice between a Trump presidency that sticks to policy positions that are consistently deeply damaging to America and its allies versus an administration that tends to weave around because of Donald Trump’s capricious personality, the wobbly version is surely preferable.
This week, as the Ukraine peace talks get underway in Saudi Arabia, there may be some encouragement to be gleaned from the US president’s latest off-hand remarks on Air Force One, casually reversing policy once again. Asked by reporters if the United States would end the suspension of intelligence sharing with Kyiv, Mr Trump replied, surprisingly, that “we just about have. We just about have.”
It could be offhand rhetoric – Mr Trump has a knack for speaking thoughtlessly, without heed of real-world repercussions – but the best possible reading might be that against expectations, the “pause” really was brief and temporary. If it is indeed over, perhaps it was aimed at reminding the Ukrainians just how reliant they are on America’s vast network of intelligence gathering – albeit at the loss of many more civilian lives.
In truth, the Ukrainians haven’t moved that much in the run-up to the peace talks, but if Mr Trump has indeed been flexible on intelligence sharing, then it will have prevented any risk of an imminent rout on the front lines – and collapse in Ukrainian civilian morale. It may be stretching hope beyond belief, but we can only wish for a sign that America won’t be entirely in the Kremlin’s pocket in the coming weeks – and will indeed be pushing for concessions on the part of the Russians, as Mr Trump has suggested in the recent past.
It is also interesting – and good news – that a little more than a week after Volodymyr Zelensky was given a verbal punishment in the Oval Office, an American team of negotiators will be starting a more productive set of private discussions with the Ukrainians – with fewer temptations to grandstand in front of the world’s media. Mr Trump, self-styled master of “the art of the deal”, is ceding ground to Marco Rubio to lead the negotiations.
What we do know is that following initial talks with the Russian team, Mr Zelensky’s colleagues will be accorded the same formal status when they meet their counterparts from the US Department of State – and they can make their case freely and directly. With plentiful gratitude, naturally.
It is, nonetheless, sadly true that the United States is no longer standing for the established rules-based world order it has supported since the Atlantic Treaty was signed by Franklin D Roosevelt and Winston Churchill in 1941. But the restoration of intelligence and retention of US sanctions against Russia also means that Ukraine is not yet an enemy in the eyes of the White House, even if no longer spoken of as an ally. As with much else in the second Trump presidency, that’s about as good as it gets.
The influence of the UK, France and the other European powers has no doubt helped to protect Ukraine’s position and secure equal diplomatic status vis a vis Russia, in what are turning into tripartite proceedings – rather than having the Americans and Russians coming to some bilateral deal and then presenting it as a fait accompli to a helpless Ukraine (though that does remain a residual risk).
This subtle improvement in Mr Zelensky’s situation probably owes a good deal to Sir Keir Starmer’s dexterous personal diplomacy – and now it must be leveraged into securing the best possible settlement for Ukraine.
In Jeddah, Mr Zelensky’s officials do have that seat at the negotiating table – and Europe behind them, if figuratively. Mr Trump has accepted that the Europeans have a legitimate interest in what is going on – and in helping guarantee any peace agreement that emerges – whether or not the Russians agree.
In a parallel, safer world – with America playing its traditional role as leader of the West – these talks would be far more even-handed and Ukraine would have the full and unwavering backing of the US in its existential struggle against unprovoked aggression.
Indeed, unless Russia was willing to surrender most, if not all, of the territorial gains made by force since 2014, there might be no peace talks at all. Instead, America and Europe would still be giving Ukraine the tools to fight their just battles.
Most likely, the Russian economy, placed on an unsustainable war footing, would have collapsed within a year, with heavy battlefield losses continuing to undermine popular backing for Vladimir Putin’s “special military operation”. He would have been forced to sue for peace – and left in a weakened position at home and abroad, vulnerable to a coup.
Instead, he is being richly rewarded for his aggression. It is Europe’s worst nightmare. While Mr Zelensky is being asked to accept the dismemberment of his country, Russia will not only rule large tracts of Ukraine but also win the dismantling of Nato, replaced by a bizarre partnership between America and Russia.
It’s a disgrace, but it is now a fact of life – and has to be dealt with. Thus, a Carthaginian peace perversely imposed on Ukraine must be avoided. That would turn it from a sovereign nation into an emasculated vassal state of Russia, banned from the European Union and Nato, and deprived of armed forces, adequate security guarantees or control of its own natural resources.
That is not acceptable to Ukraine – or the rest of Europe. It is peace without honour, unworthy of the name. It might even be worse than that, according to another throwaway remark from Mr Trump that Ukraine “may not survive”.
The dispiriting context to these peace talks in Jeddah means that, as Sir Keir has declared, Ukraine must be helped by Europe to enjoy the strongest possible position in these talks and long into the future. Time to step up.
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