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KIT NORTON

What This Donald Trump Stock Market Sentiment Indicator Signals Prior To Inauguration

Shares of Truth Social-parent Trump Media & Technology are still a top-trending topic on Reddit's meme stock forums, but with President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration just days away, DJT stock appears to be attempting to shake its meme stock reputation.

DJT shares remain volatile. The Trump stock turned lower, after jumping as high as 43.46, ending market action on Friday down 2.4% to 40.03. The stock has gained more than 17% so far in January, ahead of the Jan. 20 inauguration.

The Trump stock often behaves as a sentiment indicator toward the president-elect. DJT shares hit a short-term high of 46.27 on July 15 following the assassination attempt against Trump. Trump's lead in the polls peaked soon after, following President Joe Biden's exit from the 2024 race.

In September, after the presidential debate between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, DJT sank, signaling investor sentiment held that Trump underperformed expectations. Shares hit a low of 11.75 on Sept. 24 but, going into Wednesday's trade, DJT stock has roared back 235% since then.

Since Trump's election win on Nov. 5, DJT has advanced a fairly sedate 16%.

However, over the past 12 months shares have spiraled as high as 79.38 and flagged as low as 11.75. The stock's 12-month gain currently stands at 127%.

Special purpose acquisitions company DWAC took Trump Media and Technology Group, or TMTG, public in a reverse merger. After a prolonged battle, DWAC stockholders voted in favor of the special purpose acquisition company's merger with TMTG. Trump Media is the parent of the conservative social media platform Truth Social.

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Donald Trump Stock And Ownership

The monthslong uncertainty over Trump Media's ownership status contributed to the stock's memelike behavior. Meme stocks are typically characterized by pile-in, pile-out trading behaviors stoked by online retail investment discussions.

DJT stock is still certainly being discussed by some of the online trading groups that do drive meme stock-type action.

The Donald Trump stock is among those tracked by the subreddit investor group r/WallStreetBets. Website ApeWisdom shows DJT stock is one of the top-trending issue on r/WallStreetBets as of Thursday.

The question is whether DJT stock is starting to show some credibility as a possible healthy growth stock.

The Donald Trump brand and the value of DJT stock are closely related. Truth Social launched after X, then called Twitter, shut down Trump's account following the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol.

Trump Media jumped more than 16% on March 26, its first day trading under the DJT ticker, hitting a high of 79.38 intraday. This followed Digital World Acquisition becoming Trump Media & Technology Group after successfully merging with Trump's tech and social media platform on March 22. The special purpose acquisition company stock had rallied 35% on the day before the change to "DJT."

At that point, the president-elect held a 60% stake in Trump Media, worth several billion dollars based on the current stock price. However, Trump last month shifted all 114.75 million of his shares to the Donald J. Trump Revocable Trust, according to regulatory filings.

Following this move, Trump does not directly own any DJT shares. The president-elect's eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., is the trustee of the trust and has sole voting and investment power over all securities it owns. Meanwhile, Trump Media reported in November another quarterly loss, with revenue falling 5.6% to $1 million.

All of these elements have combined in a way that has left DJT shares somewhat less volatile. The stock currently rates a very tame Average True Range of 2.4. Tesla's ATR is more than 25. Carvana has an 11.6 ATR.

That is one sign that the stock may have matured.

Chartwise, the shares have found firm support at the stock's converged 50-day and 200-day moving averages since early December, according to MarketSurge charts. In addition, the relative strength rating, which compares a stock's price action to the S&P 500, is currently sits at 90 and rising.

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DJT shares advanced 95% in 2024, but currently remain about 50% below their record high.

The Donald Trump stock has a 62 Composite Rating. That is a sub-growth stock rating, out of a best-possible 99. FactSet lists no analysts following the company, so investor information remains very limited.

The overall message is that the stock is showing signs of growing up. But it still remains outside the target zone for investors looking for strict leadership growth stock traits.

Please follow Kit Norton on X @KitNorton for more coverage.

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