ORLANDO, Fla. — With a presidential launch imminent, Gov. Ron DeSantis’ attention must turn to blunting former President Donald Trump’s momentum and courting voters in early primary states that could make or break his chances of winning, veteran political strategists say.
DeSantis is expected to officially declare his candidacy as early as next week with an event scheduled for his hometown in Dunedin, near Tampa, according to multiple news media reports.
He already has been boosting his profile in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada — early states on the GOP primary calendar — as an all-but-declared candidate.
DeSantis will need to overcome his reputation for aloofness to excel in Iowa and New Hampshire, where old-school, meet-and-greet politicking carries a big sway with voters, political analysts say.
DeSantis flipped burgers over the weekend at a picnic hosted by an Iowa state lawmaker. Never Back Down, a pro-DeSantis super PAC, touted endorsements from 37 state legislators in Iowa and about 50 in New Hampshire. Never Back Down has staffers working in Iowa and plans to have dozens of people in place in the first 18 primary states in coming weeks, The Associated Press reported.
Trump remains widely popular with Iowa Republicans, but DeSantis has emerged as the leading alternative, said Dave Peterson, a political scientist at Iowa State University.
“I think it’s going to be awfully important for him to do well here, if not win here,” he said. “There is a sense of inevitability for Trump. That’s one of the things (DeSantis) has to overcome. He has to demonstrate that he can win. Iowa will be the first opportunity to do that.”
The next 60 days will be crucial for DeSantis as he seeks to define himself to voters and counter Trump, said John Thomas, a Texas-based political strategist who supports DeSantis.
“You got to go zero to 100 mph on day one,” he said. “He should go directly for the jugular in highlighting the contrast between the two men. He needs to show he is the new face of the Republican Party and Trump is the past.”
Meanwhile, Trump’s supporters say the 44-year-old governor’s presidential announcement is coming prematurely.
“The governor has a bright future, but the need for President Trump should trump any political ambition as we work to restore America’s greatness,” said state Sen. Joe Gruters, a Trump supporter from Sarasota. “President Trump got the job done before, and he’ll do it again on behalf of all Americans.”
Losing in Iowa doesn’t spell doom for candidates. The last Republican presidential candidate to win the Iowa caucuses and go on to win the nomination in a contested election cycle was George W. Bush in 2000. U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz prevailed there in 2016 against Trump.
But scoring a win or a better-than-expected performance can lead to a surge in enthusiasm. In 2008, Barack Obama benefited from an upset victory over Hillary Clinton in the Iowa caucuses, which helped to propel him to the White House.
Winning New Hampshire usually takes meeting voters in small groups and town halls, said Steve Duprey, a former chairman of the New Hampshire Republican Party, who supported Trump in 2016 and voted for President Joe Biden in 2020.
“I’ll tell you what New Hampshire voters are looking for,” he said. “New Hampshire voters first make a decision about whether you’re authentic, whether it’s staged, or you’re handled, whether you can actually talk to people and relate to them. They want a certain degree of likability. They don’t even have to agree with you on every issue. But they have to understand why you take the positions you do.”
Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley will be on home turf in one of the early states. Republican New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu is considering a White House bid in 2024, which could shake up that contest.
DeSantis is facing a tough decision of whether to engage Trump directly and risk alienating his longtime supporters, said Gregory Koger, a political scientist at the University of Miami. For the most part, DeSantis has ignored Trump’s attacks.
“The announcement speech should probably be positive,” Koger said. “Here’s who I am. Here’s why I am running. Soon afterwards, he has to take the gloves off. Donald Trump has spent the last six months driving Ron DeSantis’ negative ratings among Republican primary voters. … There’s got to be a story about why he is better than the main alternative — the former president of the United States, Donald John Trump.”
Behind the scenes, DeSantis’ team has been making moves to gear up for a presidential run. DeSantis broke ties with the Friends of Ron DeSantis state political committee, a step he needs to take if he wants to try to use the $86 million in that account to run for president. That committee has been renamed the Empower Parents PAC.
Nearly 100 state lawmakers in Florida, including House Speaker Paul Renner and Senate President Kathleen Passidomo, have endorsed DeSantis for president.
He took to the road to promote his book, “The Courage to Be Free.” DeSantis is reportedly summoning key donors to Miami next week.
Recently, his political team moved from the Republican Party of Florida’s building in Tallahassee to their own office across town.
Running for president essentially requires building what amounts to a corporation from the ground up, said Steve Schale, a Democratic strategist who worked on Obama’s campaigns and ran a super PAC for Biden in 2020.
One thing’s for sure, Schale said. It’ll involve long days and nights for campaign staffers who will be fueled by caffeine, tacos and pizza.
Schale evaluated the location of the DeSantis team’s office in Tallahassee based on the tough grind for young campaign staffers working around the clock.
“They got two-out-of-four things right,” he said. “They are close to a beer hall and a Dunkin’ donuts, but they are not close to a pizza place or a taco place.”
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