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Football London
Football London
Sport
Tashan Deniran-Alleyne

Arsenal on the verge of announcing Champions League return as simulation reveals points target

An official announcement with regard to Arsenal's return to the Champions League after a six-season absence could be imminent, especially if a simulated final 2022/23 Premier League table becomes a reality.

Not since the 2016/17 campaign which ended in a humiliating defeat at the hands of Bayern Munich, have the Gunners competed in European football's elite club competition. Although, as things stand they have two realistic opportunities to end the exile with one being to win the Europa League as the reward is not only a trophy but entry to next season's group phase too.

The other, of course, is by sealing a top-four finish in the Premier League. Considering Arsenal are embroiled in a title race with Manchester City, it would require an almighty dip in form over the remaining 12 fixtures for Mikel Arteta's side to not achieve this target.

READ MORE: Liverpool make Anfield 'promise' to Arsenal and Man City as Gunners target 11-point title lead

And the encouraging news for the north London outfit is they are being backed by the website FiveThirtyEight to return to Europe's top table next season with a 99% probability of qualifying for the 2023/24 Champions League campaign. Meanwhile it's 55% to be crowned champions of England for the first time in 19 years.

Furthermore, this predicted final table has Liverpool claiming the fourth and final Champions League spot on 66 points followed by Tottenham Hotspur (65 pts), Brighton & Hove Albion, Newcastle United (both 64 pts) and Brentford in eighth on 57 points - two clear of west London rivals Chelsea.

Whilst plenty of twists and turns are expected before the season reaches its climax, if this simulated table becomes a reality then the Gunners' route back into the Champions League - via their Premier League finish becomes even more clearer.

Currently, on 63 points following Saturday's dramatic comeback win over Bournemouth at the Emirates Stadium, Arteta's side would need three more points in order to reach 66 and that, in a dream scenario, works out to be one more victory from their final 12 fixtures. Alternatively, three draws would also be enough.

With derbies against Fulham and Crystal Palace in the next fortnight, the Gunners could yet achieve the necessary points target before the season pauses for the international break on March 20 meaning they would seal a return to the Champions League with 10 games to spare.

In addition, as Spurs are predicted to finish on 65 points, that would hand the Gunners an extra incentive to reach the 66 points mark as soon as possible as doing so would thus confirm the first St Totteringham's Day since May 2016.

Having said that, if last season is any indicator with regard to the points total needed for Champions League qualification then the Gunners need at least 70 points in order to seal a return to Europe's top-tier club competition and as things stand they are seven points away from that target.

That works out to be two wins and a draw in the ideal scenario, one win and four draws alternatively or seven draws in what would be the worst-case scenario as despite being back in the Champions League, Arsenal's Premier League title ambitions would certainly be dented.

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