Mix some lemonade and iced tea, grab your red cardigan and get ready for one of the best tournaments on the PGA Tour calendar. The 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational returns to Bay Hill Club and Lodge this week with an absolutely stacked field.
Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, Max Homa, Will Zalatoris, Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, Hideki Matsuyama and Viktor Hovland are all back in action after skipping the Honda Classic.
Scheffler, the defending champion, is looking to become the first player to go back-to-back at Arnie’s Place since Matt Every in 2014-2015. But he’s not the favorite this week. That title, naturally, belongs to Rahm at +650.
While it would be malpractice to preach betting against the the current No. 1 golfer in the world, there is too much value across the board to put all of your money on Rahm.
Let’s take a look at this week’s picks.
The Arnold Palmer Invitational gets underway on Thursday ⛳️ pic.twitter.com/pzTdWGpAjR
— BetMGM 🦁 (@BetMGM) February 27, 2023
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Who's winning?
Blake Schuster : Justin Thomas (+2500)
In short, I have no clue who is going to win. This tournament is so stacked it almost feels like a major, and considering the reverence for Palmer across the sport — along with a $3.6 million prize for first place —this competition is going to get intense. I’m going with JT for a few reasons, however. His late surge at The Genesis can’t be ignored and he just won the Seminole Pro-Member on Monday. At +2500, his odds provide a strong return making him feel a bit undervalued.
Charles Curtis: Scottie Scheffler (+900)
Can he win another one just after winning the Phoenix Open last month? Sure! Why not? Is it obvious to pick last year’s winner and one of the best golfers in the world right now? Sure is. But the way he’s playing, it’s a good bet.
Who's a lock to finish Top 10?
Blake: Shane Lowry (+350)
Generally speaking I don’t really love playing round robins. They can be a bit of a sucker bet depending on your bankroll, but taking a top 10 (or top 20) round robin in PGA events has become sort of an experiment for me. I’ll grab a couple guys at the top of the board and throw in one or two longer options to make the payout worth the juice. This week that’s Shane Lowry, who had a fine Honda Classic tying for fifth place. I’ll be pairing him with the likes of Rahm, Scheffler, Zalatoris, Homa and Sam Burns on a 2’s x15 (+1208) or 3’s x20 (+4362).
Charles Curtis: Max Homa (+160)
Love the form and he’s played well enough here that you can bump him up from a top-20 lock to the top-10.
Who's missing the cut?
Blake: Sahith Theegala (+220)
I hope I’m wrong. I love watching Sahith play when he’s reaching his potential, but he came nowhere close to that last year. Theegala missed the cut after shooting a first round 73 and adding a 79 on Friday.
Charles Curtis: Tony Finau
He MC’d here in 2020, so I’m nervous.
Who's a longshot you like?
Blake: Taylor Montgomery (+10000)
Remember like a month ago when Montgomery’s name was near the top of every leaderboard? It feels like it’s been much longer than that after he missed the cut at the WM Phoenix Open and The Genesis. He’s due for a bounce back and what better stage than Arnie’s Place.
Charles Curtis: Keegan Bradley (+6000)
Our pals at Golfweek like him, and I agree with this line of thinkng:
Since a second-place finish at the Farmers Insurance Open, Keegan Bradley has tied for 20th at the WM Phoenix Open and missed the weekend at Riviera thanks to an opening-round 75.
Bradley was runner-up at Bay Hill in 2014 and third in 2013. More recently, he finished 10th in 2021 and 11th last season.
Fantasy one-and-done pick
Blake: Tony Finau
This is tough because the API is a big money event, but not a major. I don’t want to waste a top guy who could end up running away with a bigger prize pool later in the year, but I also don’t want to miss out on this weekend’s payout. Finau feels like the logical choice.
Charles: Max Homa
If you’re in a pool in which you win by making the most money off your golfers, then you use the big money events to take big swings. So let’s take one here with one of the hottest golfers on tour right now.
Prop Bets!
Will there be an Ace?
Blake: No (-135)
Charles: No (-135)
Winning margin
Blake: 2 strokes (+350)
Charles: 1 stroke (+240)
Will Jon Rahm play in the final group in the final round?
Blake: Yes (+350)
Charles: Yes (+350)
