How many times, dear reader, over the last few months, in conversations with friends and colleagues, over dinner or coffee, have you discussed how depressing the UK is right now? I had this very conversation with a Spanish friend of mine yesterday, who cannot wait to escape London for Madrid for two weeks. I admit I was practically begging to get on the aeroplane with her. Because there is a declinist stupor that has gripped us, a morose acceptance that, frankly, this country is heading only in one direction.
One gloomy economic forecast after the next assails us, along with dreary grey weather and inflation, rising mortgages and hideous news from Ukraine. Then there’s Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt talking on and on about hard days ahead (enough now — we’ve got the message). The temptation to stay snuggled under the covers, rather than get out and battle another day... sometimes it is overwhelming.
And yet, there is a tougher part within us. We must push back against the endless grim reapers hovering over Britain Plc and their defeatist voices. And pull back that duvet. Economists often get their forecasts wrong. This is a fact. The IMF has frequently consigned our economy to the scrapheap, only to have to reverse their doom-mongering.
Let me take you, for one example, back to the summer of 2020. I had just become editor of this newspaper and the national obsession was what shape recovery we were going to have. In July the fashionable model was V-shaped, according to the chief economist of the Bank of England. He said the cumulative loss of annual GDP was now around half of what had been forecast. They had got it very wrong.
In part it was because the lockdown has been eased sooner than assumed, especially outside the UK. But it was also because economic models often struggle to incorporate a key factor: human ingenuity and adaption. At that time, we changed our behaviour, adapted our workplaces, quickened the digital transformations affecting our lives. Just as fast as we seem to be submerged under the strain of new challenges – and there have been grievous ones these past years – we pick ourselves up: look for new opportunities, retrain, or build a new business from fresh.
Britain has often faced horrible moments of stark truth — and we have emerged stronger. I am not advocating foolish positivity; boosterism is empty if not grounded in hard work, deep thought and clear communication. We must learn from mistakes not endlessly repeat them. And yes, we need to consistently arm ourselves with the hope that what faces us is not always as bad as initially feared. Gloomy cycles feed upon themselves. We need more than ever this year the glass half full approach — because it works.
Yesterday’s news was a case in point. A sharp drop in gas prices in the past two months has improved global outlook – thank God — and could dramatically bring down inflation by the end of the year. For the first time in two years, the Bank of England upgraded its growth outlook and is now predicting only a mild recession. In its last forecast in November the Bank warned of the longest recession in a century during which the economy would shrink by 3 per cent over eight quarters. This is now revised to a shrinkage of one per cent over five. We are also unlikely to hit the interest rate of 5.25 per cent. It doesn’t mean the rise in the Bank’s base rate, announced yesterday, isn’t going to hurt a great deal of people. But we should look also to the glimmers of hope.
As my lovely sunny Spanish friend rightly suggested at the end of our texting, now is the time for constructive positivity here in Britain. We need to stop listening to those who would wallow in our woess. It suits Labour, of course, to help us believe that Rishi Sunak is too weak, the Tories too spent, to pull us out of this mess. But his 100 days have brought relative stability after the chaos of Liz Truss, and we should celebrate that. I find it surprising how quickly that achievement has been glossed over as inconsequential by those championing the return of Boris or, shudder, Liz Truss again.
Tough decisions on tax and spending were inevitable — we borrowed in our billions during the pandemic. And the repair job Sunak has begun — after Brexit and the pandemic — is going to take imagination, innovation, and drive from us all.
I am not trying vainly to wish away the desperation many are feeling — but there are reasons to be cheerful and believe that better days lie ahead.
Sunak right on Raab but skating on thin ice
Everybody in Westminster knows Dominic Raab’s days are numbered, as whatever the outcome of the inquiry into bullying, it’s rare to recover politically from a storm like this.
I realise Westminster appears to many to be a workplace lost in the 19th century, with groping, shouting, extramarital affairs and weird working hours, plus a dangerously crumbling building, but just as I defended Rishi Sunak handing over Nadhim Zahawi’s case to his ethics advisor, so I believe he’s done the right thing by letting a professional handle this case rather than have Raab sacked without investigation.
Politically, it’s damaging as the headlines drag on — although given Labour’s recent history under Jeremy Corbyn they have nothing to shout about — but due process should be followed as the accusations are deeply serious.
Yesterday, however, it emerged that Simon Case, the Cabinet Secretary, was told of a written complaint against Raab last spring.
If it comes to light in the next few days that Case had warned Sunak of a “formal complaint” then his defence crumbles. He had put Raab back into the Justice department all the same.
Beware Pammy’s dating advice
Pamela Anderson, the blonde Baywatch bombshell, is back on our screens with her autobiographical series on Netflix. It reminded me of the immortal description of her first meeting with Tommy Lee: “He came up, grabbed me, and licked my face… I thought he was a cool, friendly guy and gave him my number.”
Ladies, may I gently advise that Pam was many things, but she was not the best at first date advice.
