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Aditya Sarawgi

Are Wall Street Analysts Predicting United Airlines Stock Will Climb or Sink?

Chicago, Illinois-based United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) is a major American airline. Its offerings include transportation, catering, ground handling, and maintenance services. Valued at a market cap of $12.8 billion, the company provides air transportation services in the Americas, Asia, Europe, Africa, and the Pacific.

The airline company has significantly underperformed the broader market over the past year. Over the past 52 weeks, UAL stock has declined 25.9%, while the S&P 500 Index ($SPX) returned 17% over the same time frame. In 2024, UAL dipped nearly 6% compared to SPX’s 9.9% gain on a YTD basis.

Narrowing the focus, UAL has underperformed the US Global Jets ETF’s (JETS) 15.8% decline over the past 52 weeks, However, the stock outperformed JETS’ 10.2% dip in 2024.

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The past week has been tough for United Airlines, with shares plummeting 16.8% over the past five trading sessions. The fall can primarily be attributed to the updates regarding negotiations on labor agreements with the Teamsters union, which could translate to a steep rise in the company's labor expenses. Moreover, the recent bloodbath created by the release of unemployment data by the Bureau of Labor Statistics has added to the fall.

For the current fiscal year, ending in December, analysts expect United Airlines to report an EPS decline of 4.3% year over year to $9.62. However, the company has a history of surpassing consensus EPS estimates in its quarterly reports. Its EPS for the last reported quarter exceeded the consensus estimates by 4.3%.

Among the 20 analysts covering the UAL stock, the consensus rating is a “Strong Buy.” That’s based on 17 “Strong Buy” ratings, one “Moderate Buy,” and two “Holds.”

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This configuration is more bullish than three months before, with 13 analysts recommending a “Strong Buy.”

On July 17, TD Cowen analyst Helane Becker maintained a “Buy” rating on UAL stock with a target of $80, citing a strong quarter EPS and momentum on UnitedNext initiatives, making it their second top pick.

UAL’s mean price target of $69.22 represents a premium of 78.4% to current price levels. The street-high target of $100 indicates a potential upside of 157.7% from current price levels.

On the date of publication, Aditya Sarawgi did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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