/CSX%20Corp_%20railcar-by%20Jonathan%20Weiss%20via%20Shutterstock.jpg)
Valued at a market cap of $63.4 billion, CSX Corporation (CSX) provides rail-based freight transportation services like traditional rail service, transport of intermodal containers and trailers, rail-to-truck transfers, and bulk commodity operations, among others. The Jacksonville, Florida-based company also leases locomotives on a short-term basis.
Shares of this transport company have massively underperformed the broader market over the past 52 weeks. CSX has declined 11% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has soared 20.9%. Moreover, on a YTD basis, the stock is marginally up compared to SPX’s 1.9% rise.
Narrowing the focus, CSX has also lagged behind the Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund’s (XLI) 18.5% gain over the past 52 weeks and a 4% return on a YTD basis.
On February 3, CSX Corporation shares declined 1.1% after Loop Capital Markets downgraded the stock from ‘Buy’ to ‘Hold’. Loop Capital downgraded many railroad stocks due to concerns over the impact of new tariffs. The market reacted sharply to President Trump’s announcement of imposing 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, 10% on China, and warning of upcoming European tariffs. As a result, not just railroad stocks but the broader S&P 500 Index also fell 1.4%.
Shares of CSX plunged 2.9% on the day following its lower-than-expected Q4 earnings release on Jan. 23. The company’s revenue of $3.5 billion declined 3.8% from the year-ago quarter and fell short of the forecasted figure by 1.1%. Moreover, its adjusted EPS fell 6.7% year-over-year to $0.42 per share and missed the consensus estimates of $0.43.
The disappointing results were primarily driven by a sharp decline in coal revenues, impacted by lower global coal prices and production issues. Furthermore, hurricane-related disruptions added to the company’s headwinds, weighing on overall performance.
For the current fiscal year, ending in December 2025, analysts expect CSX’s EPS to grow 2.7% year over year to $1.88. The company’s earnings surprise history is mixed. It topped the Wall Street estimates in two of the last four quarters while missing on two other occasions.
Among the 24 analysts covering the stock, the consensus rating is a “Strong Buy,” which is based on 17 “Strong Buy,” one “Moderate Buy,” and six “Hold” ratings.
This configuration is slightly more bullish than three months ago, with 16 analysts suggesting a “Strong Buy” rating.
On Jan. 10, Jefferies upgraded CSX’s rating to a “Buy” and raised its price target to $37, which also appears to match the mean price target for the stock. This newly issued target indicates a 13.8% potential upside from the current levels. The Street-high price target of $42 suggests an upside potential of 29.2%.
