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Rashmi Kumari

Are Wall Street Analysts Predicting Airbnb Stock Will Climb or Sink?

Headquartered in San Francisco, California, Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) is a global leader in the online marketplace for short-term rentals and experiences, with a market cap of $86.4 billion. Airbnb offers a diverse platform that connects hosts with guests worldwide, providing unique accommodation options and curated experiences across travel, leisure, and business markets.

Airbnb stock has underperformed the broader market over the last year. The stock has gained 16.3% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has rallied nearly 35.9%. In 2024, ABNB is up marginally, compared the SPX's 25.8% rise on a YTD basis.

Zooming in further, ABNB has significantly underperformed the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY). The stock has lagged behind the exchange-traded fund’s 36% returns over the past 52 weeks and 22.7% on a YTD basis.

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Airbnb dropped more than 5% in pre-market trading following the release of weaker-than-expected Q3 release on Nov. 7. Airbnb reported earnings per share of $2.13, slightly below the $2.14 expected, but revenue of $3.73 billion, came in slightly above the $3.72 billion forecast and marking a 10% year-over-year increase. 

For Q4, Airbnb anticipates revenue between $2.39 billion and $2.44 billion, with the high end slightly exceeding analyst expectations of $2.42 billion. Airbnb shares fell due to concerns over slowing booking growth, narrow earnings miss, and cautious holiday quarter guidance.

For the current fiscal year, ending in December, analysts expect ABNB’s EPS to decline 7.8% to $4.04. The company's earnings surprise history is mixed. It beat the consensus estimate in two of the last four quarters while missing on two other occasions.

Among the 38 analysts covering ABNB stock, the consensus rating is a “Hold.” That’s based on nine “Strong Buy” ratings, one “Moderate Buy,” 23 “Holds,” one “Moderate Sell,” and four “Strong Sells.” 

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This configuration is slightly less bullish than three months ago, when 10 analysts suggested a "Strong Buy." 

On Nov. 11, Susquehanna raised ABNB’s price target to $160 from $130 maintaining a positive rating, noting steady Q3 performance but expressing concern over Q4 EBITDA and next year's margins amid ongoing investments.

While ABNB is currently trading at a premium to the mean price target of $136.35, the Street-high price target of $195 suggests a 41.9% upside potential.

On the date of publication, Rashmi Kumari did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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