/Super%20Micro%20Computer%20Inc%20HQ%20photo-by%20Tada%20Images%20via%20Shutterstock.jpg)
San Jose, California-based Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) develops and manufactures advanced server and storage solutions built on a modular and open architecture. Valued at $15.7 billion by market cap, the company offers servers, storage systems, motherboards, full racks, chassis, and accessories worldwide.
Shares of this AI server giant have significantly underperformed the broader market over the past year. SMCI has declined 49.7% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has rallied nearly 21.8%. In 2025, SMCI stock is down 4.3%, compared to SPX’s 2.7% rise on a YTD basis.
Narrowing the focus, SMCI’s underperformance is apparent compared to the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK). The exchange-traded fund has gained about 14.2% over the past year. Moreover, the ETF’s marginal dip on a YTD basis outshines the stock’s single-digit losses over the same time frame.
SMCI underperformed due to concerns over its accounting practices, sparked by a Hindenburg Research report. Delayed filings, auditor resignation, and Nasdaq listing risks further disrupted momentum. Furthermore, growing concerns about potential risks tied to DeepSeek’s new R1 artificial intelligence (AI) model have added to the uncertainty surrounding the company’s future growth potential.
On Nov. 5, SMCI reported its preliminary Q1 results, and its shares closed down more than 18% in the following trading session. Its adjusted EPS is expected to be between $0.75 and $0.76, surpassing Wall Street expectations of $0.73. The company’s revenue is expected to range from $5.9 billion to $6 billion, missing Wall Street forecasts of $6.5 billion.
For the current fiscal year, ending in June, analysts expect SMCI’s EPS to grow 8% to $2.17 on a diluted basis. The company’s earnings surprise history is mixed. It beat the consensus estimates in two of the last three quarters while missing the forecast on another occasion.
Among the 13 analysts covering SMCI stock, the consensus is a “Hold.” That’s based on two “Strong Buy” ratings, one “Moderate Buy,” eight “Holds,” and two “Strong Sells.”
This configuration is more bullish than two months ago, with one analyst suggesting a “Strong Buy.”
On Jan. 23, Loop Capital kept a “Buy” rating on SMCI and raised the price target to $40, implying a potential upside of 37.2% from current levels.
The mean price target of $49.56 represents a 70% premium to SMCI’s current price levels. The Street-high price target of $100 suggests an ambitious upside potential of 242.9%.
