Jürgen Klopp is not a fan of early Saturday kick-offs – the Liverpool manager once said he preferred to play matches “at a normal time, and not at breakfast”. Klopp’s ire was raised once again when his side’s trip to Manchester City on Saturday was moved to a 12.30pm start, giving several players on both sides a limited recovery window after playing for their countries this week. “These two teams could have, all together, about 30 international players,” Klopp complained before the international break began.
Saturday’s clash at the Etihad Stadium will be the third Premier League game this season to kick off at 12.30pm after an international break – and the third to feature Liverpool. It should be noted that this particular fixture was moved from 5.30pm owing to policing concerns – understandably, given a recent history of fan incidents around the title rivals’ meetings. More broadly, is Klopp justified in feeling his team are unfairly affected by early kick-offs after international breaks? The short answer is: yes and no.
Let’s take the 2016-17 season as our starting point – Klopp’s first full season at Anfield, Pep Guardiola’s debut City campaign, and also the year Saturday lunchtime kick-offs were tweaked from 12.45pm to 12.30pm. The latest meeting is the 28th early Premier League kick-off after an international break, and will be Liverpool’s 13th appearance.
The Reds have played double the early starts of the second-placed Tottenham (six). City will join Chelsea on five games, with Arsenal, Everton and Manchester United playing four times each. What is interesting, though, is Liverpool’s strong record in their 12 games. They have won eight (including both games this season), drawn two and lost twice – although significantly, both defeats were at the Etihad.
Liverpool’s points per game (ppg) across these fixtures is 2.16 – compared with 1.78 across all of their early Saturday games since Klopp became manager, and his overall Premier League record of 2.11. Guardiola’s track record in all 12.30pm matches is 25 wins from 33 (2.39 ppg); City have won all four of their early kick-offs after the international break since he took charge.
Arsenal and Chelsea also have winning records in this slot, which suggests that the bigger teams’ squad depth more than makes up for the exertions of their internationals. It is a different story for Everton (one win from four), United (three draws and a loss) and Tottenham, who have one win from their six matches. That came at West Ham in November 2019 – José Mourinho’s first game in charge.
Another accusation levelled at early kick-offs is that they are less entertaining – quieter crowds and lethargic players contributing to downbeat occasions. Generally speaking, that’s not the case – with an average of 2.78 goals per game since 2013-14, the Saturday 12.30pm slot is almost exactly in line with the overall goalscoring rate across the last decade (2.77 gpg).
Since the start of the 2016-17 season, there have been 27 games kicking off at 12.30pm on a Saturday straight after an international break. Liverpool have featured in 12 of them, winning eight.
2016-17 season:
Manchester United 1-2 Manchester City
Chelsea 2-0 Leicester
Manchester United 1-1 Arsenal
Liverpool 3-1 Everton
2017-18 season:
Manchester City 5-0 Liverpool
Liverpool 0-0 Manchester United
Arsenal 2-0 Tottenham
Crystal Palace 1-2 Liverpool
2018-19:
Tottenham 1-2 Liverpool
Chelsea 2-2 Manchester United
Fulham 0-2 Manchester City
2019-20:
Liverpool 3-1 Newcastle
Everton 2-0 West Ham
West Ham 2-3 Tottenham
2020-21:
Fulham 0-3 Arsenal*
Everton 2-2 Liverpool
Newcastle 0-2 Chelsea
Chelsea 2-5 West Brom
2021-22:
Crystal Palace 3-0 Tottenham
Watford 0-5 Liverpool
Leicester 0-3 Chelsea
Liverpool 2-0 Watford
2022-23:
Arsenal 3-1 Tottenham
Brentford 2-2 Tottenham**
Manchester City 4-1 Liverpool
2023-24:
Wolves 1-3 Liverpool
Liverpool 2-0 Everton
Manchester City v Liverpool
*First game of Covid-delayed season, came after international break
**First game after World Cup 2022, played on Boxing Day
In theory, this should also be a bigger issue after international breaks – but the numbers tell us something very different. Across the 27 games highlighted, the goals-per-game ratio is a whopping 3.3. There has been just one goalless draw, between Liverpool and Manchester United, in October 2017. All of which suggests that despite Klopp’s concerns, we could be in for a thriller on Saturday afternoon.
