EV skeptics rejoiced at recent data from Edmunds, which claimed that over 50% of Tesla buyers were trading in their EVs for gas cars. There's just one problem with that stat: It's not true. Or more specifically, it's far from a complete picture.
Edmunds has a lot of great data, and it's a highly reputable source for new car transaction data and car testing data. We rely on all of it very regularly here. But their sales data has one core limitation: It comes from traditional car dealerships and only covers trade-ins.
As EIC Patrick George already explained in a recent story, anyone who knows Tesla knows why that data can't fully capture Tesla owner behavior. Tesla doesn't have dealerships.
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EV Loyalty
Many early adopters have proven stunningly loyal to EVs. But as the products are reaching a wider audience, more people are saying they'd be interested in going back to a gas car. That trend is real, but not nearly as broad as some people have claimed.
Tesla sells its vehicles through directly owned company stores, which aren't included in Edmunds' dataset. We noted that the sample missed Tesla owners who switched to new Teslas, as well as those who replaced their cars with Rivians, Lucids or even VinFasts, all of which are sold outside of dealer networks.
Now, a new video from our friends at EV Buyers Guide expands on our intuition, showing data from S&P Global that captures a wider section of the market. It used new vehicle registration data along with data about when a car is no longer registered to an address, giving it a picture of the market that includes Tesla shoppers who buy another Tesla, those who have their cars totaled and get something else without trading in and those who sell or buy their next vehicle privately.
In short: It's the full picture. And it's a lot rosier for EV fans.
Gallery: Tesla Model 3 Performance 2024
The first thing that sticks out is how much Edmunds misses by not including Tesla's store data. A whopping 70% of Tesla owners simply get another Tesla, an incredible loyalty figure. Another 10% buy other EVs, Rivian winning 9.8% of those customers who switch.
Just 13% of buyers traded their Teslas in for gas cars. Of the remaining buyers, 4% get hybrids, 2% get plug-in hybrids and 1% get diesels.
That's a far cry from the 51% number, which is what the Edmunds data suggested. It also includes buyers switching to brands like Ram or Aston Martin, which don't really make the same types of vehicles that Tesla does.
But there's a caveat to this data, that makes it worth watching the whole video. As Alex explains, the vast majority of Tesla sales have happened in the last few years, as the brand has transitioned from a niche player to a dominant juggernaut. That may have weird effect on the data, as Alex explains.
But while the data has its own limitation, one thing is clear: Most Tesla buyers aren't going back to gas cars. Don't get it twisted.
