He's the man in front of the big screen on election night, whose makes the decision on when the election is called.
Having covered more than 90 elections since 1989, few people know more about elections than the ABC's chief election analyst, Antony Green.
Earlier this week, Antony — along with Andrew Probyn and Patricia Karvelas — joined us on the ABC election live blog to answer your burning election questions.
If you missed it, here are Antony's best answers.
How do preferences work?
Can you explain preferences and how much they impact the final vote? — Adam
The winning candidate must achieve 50 per cent of the vote to win. If no candidate has 50 per cent on first preferences, the candidate with the least vote is excluded, their ballot papers re-examined and transferred to one of the continuing candidates according to the second, third, etc, preferences that voters wrote on their ballot papers. The process of elimination and transfer can continue until only two candidates remain and one candidate has more votes than the other.
These transfers are determined by the numbers (preferences) that each voter writes on their ballot paper. A voter's ballot paper is transferred to continuing candidates as determined by the voter.
Voters who gave a first preference for one of the final two candidates don't have their ballot paper examined for preferences. Only candidates excluded from the count have their ballot papers re-examined for preferences.
How quickly will postal and early votes get counted?
Are we expecting any changes to the speed of the count for postal and early voting this election? I heard the process was enhanced but didn't see any details. — Tim
The Electoral Act has been changed to allow pre-poll ballot boxes to be opened from 4pm on election day. This will allow ballot papers to be unfolded and sorted ahead of the count starting at 6pm. Some of these pre-poll counts have more than 10,000 votes, so unfolding ballot papers can cause a significant delay in starting the count. These sorts will be undertaken in lockdown conditions to prevent scrutineers from reporting what they see before 6pm.
Postal votes can now be pre-processed, with votes removed from declaration envelopes before election day. However, the AEC will not be counting postal votes on election night. Tens of thousands of extra staff will handle all the pre-poll centres, and counting pre-poll votes is more important than counting postals. There will be three or four times as many pre-poll votes as postals. The AEC proposes to do some postal vote counting on the Sunday after the election.
The new pre-poll counting method is expected to deliver more pre-poll counts earlier in the evening and ensure we are not hanging around until after midnight for the final pre-poll counts.
If I get COVID, how can I vote on election day?
If we are required to self-isolate for seven days due to unfortunate timing in testing positive for COVID after this Saturday, how will we vote this election? — At Home with a COVID+
Contact the Australian Electoral Commission, which can take telephone votes due to COVID isolation.
Could we ever have elections with a fixed date?
Any chance that, in some future scenario, elections could be tied to a particular date? I don't see how the pre-campaign date speculation, inconsistent term lengths, and vagaries around funding of political marketing material contribute in a positive way to our democracy! — James, Far North Queensland
Yes, but it would require a referendum to be a permanent change.
It is possible for parliament to pass a law fixing dates when elections can be held, but such a law could be amended. One difficulty is that such a law could not restrict the use of the power of the Governor-General to grant a Prime Minister's request to hold a double dissolution election.
How do I find out about a candidate's preferences?
How do I find out where the candidates' preference votes will go? - Sally F
Candidates don't have preferences. Only voters can determine preferences by the numbers they write on their ballot paper.
Candidates and parties can try to influence what a voter writes on the ballot paper but they can't control or alter the voter's choice. One hundred per cent of preferences on every ballot paper flow where the voter directs them.
Until 2016, parties could control between party preferences on ballot papers, but that system of party control was abolished in 2016. Whether you vote above or below the line on the Senate ballot paper, preferences between parties are now determined entirely by the voter.
What election rule change would you like to see?
For Anthony, what rule change to our system of elections would be a positive change, if any? - Nat
Something that would allow more votes currently rejected as informal to be included in the count.
Voters must fill in preferences for every candidate. Even if those preferences never need to be examined for the count, they must be present for the vote to be formal and included in the count. I think it is ludicrous to reject a ballot paper for missing a preference that does not need to be examined to determine the winning candidate.
The example I use is the 2009 Bradfield by-election. There were 73,000 ballot papers and 22 candidates including nine Christian Democrats. The Liberal candidate polled 56 per cent of the first preference vote. Yet every one of those 73,000 ballot papers was examined to ensure all had a valid sequence of 22 preferences, even though not one of those preferences needed to be examined to determine the winner. Even people who voted ‘1' for the Liberal candidate risked having their vote declared informal because they made a mistake numbering between the nine Christian Democrat candidates, all of whom had negligible votes.
Rather than strict rules defining what can't count, we need principles that allow more votes to count.
Can I ensure my vote only goes to one party?
If I don't want to give preferences, how do I vote on the ballot paper? For example, If I want my vote to go to, say, Liberal Nationals only with no preferences, how do I ensure this? — Dave, QLD
You must number all the squares on the House of Representatives ballot paper for your vote to count. So you must indicate a preference number for every candidate. If you don't do that your vote is informal and counts for nobody.
You don't have to fill on all the squares on the Senate ballot paper. If you don't want to choose between certain candidates, or simply don't want to vote for certain parties and candidates, you don't have to. The instructions on the ballot paper are that you must number a minimum six party boxes above the line, OR a minimum of 12 candidate boxes below. You are free to go beyond the minimum number as your further preferences can still count. The more preferences you give the more likely your vote will stay live through the count.
Where is it easier for an independent to get elected?
Is it easier for an independent to get elected into the House of Reps or the Senate? — Liz, WA
In all states except Tasmania, it is easier to get elected to the House than the Senate. You need fewer votes in the House. It is also easier to be well known in one electorate compared to building a profile across the whole state.
NSW has 47 seats and a candidate only needs half of the votes in one seat to be elected. That corresponds to about 1 per cent of the state vote. Getting elected to the Senate in NSW requires at least 7 per cent of the state vote, a much higher hurdle.
Tasmania has five House seats and six senators. Winning a House seat corresponds to about 10 per cent of the state vote. Half a quota in the Senate is 7 per cent, so the number of votes for election to the Senate in Tasmania can be less than the House. But a candidate would require a state-wide profile, and that is much harder than just being known in the local area.
What seats are called first and last?
What seat will be the first and last called during this election? - Matthew, NSW
The first seats called will be the safest seats, the last being the closest contest. There are any number of seats that could end up the first called. Which will be the last called depends on which seat is closest.
Can you spill the secrets on the ABC election board?
Hey Antony, can you tell me how you and your team make your board work on election night? — Joshua
It's just a browser interface but you're running it as a touch screen rather than with a mouse. Basically, it's just a big external monitor being used instead of the driving laptop's screen.
The ABC computer receives data from the AEC. This is all stored and calculations done and a series of graphics data files output, and these are read by the touchscreen software on request by me using the screen buttons.
The screen itself is very reliable. The biggest problems over the years have been caused by network delays. Over the years we've learnt to fine tune where data is written to so that we don't get networks pauses.
Why isn't there electronic rolls at polling places?
Who or what is standing in the way of electronic rolls in polling places — Ian, ACT
I presume you are comparing to the operations of the ACT Electoral Commission. The ACT is a city state with around 120 polling places. They also take votes for all electorates at every polling place so having an electronic roll helps.
The AEC conducts more than 8,000 polling places and voting centres across the country. They are using electronic rolls in pre-poll centres and some polling places, especially those where they expect a high absent vote.
There is simply an issue of scale with holding a national election compared to the ACT — and cost. Do you hire or buy the equipment? If you buy the equipment may only be used once and hiring relies on suppliers being able to supply enough equipment for a one off event.
Could Australia ever adopt a different electoral system?
Do you ever see Australia adopting (or seriously discussing) a mixed-member proportional representation system like New Zealand and Germany? It seems strange that the national party can get 10 seats with less than 5 per cent of the vote, but the Greens only have one despite winning more than 10 per cent of the vote. Keep up the awesome coverage! — Dan
They could move to adopt a form of proportional representation, but I doubt MMP would be chosen. MMP is not a preferential system and Australians are somewhat wedded to indicating preferences.
