A month to go in the season. And you can tell in the tone of the questions landing in the mailbag. Let’s dive in …
From Matt Ramas (@matt_ramas): What is the Packers’ long-term play with Jordan Love?
From Andy Marcell (@1544Amar): League thoughts on the futures of Rodgers and Love?
Matt and Andy, gotta be encouraged with what you’ve seen in spurts from Jordan Love—in particular, the Sunday Night Football cameo against the Eagles—and that’s not irrelevant. I was a Cowboys beat writer at the Dallas Morning News when Brett Favre got hurt in a Thursday-night game at Texas Stadium and a young quarterback no one was sure of came on to light up Wade Phillips’s defense. That quarterback was Aaron Rodgers, and, in retrospect, there was plenty to see that night.
Bill Streicher/USA TODAY Sports
That’s good, too, because the question of how sure the Packers are on Jordan Love will be front and center this offseason more so than it has been before. A decision on his fifth-year option will be due just after the draft, and exercising it will mean locking in a $20 million guarantee on the 2020 first-round pick for ’24. Meanwhile, Rodgers will have a decision to make after the season on his own future. If he sticks around, things get exponentially more complicated with Love, because it could set the team up for a traffic jam of QB contracts in ’24.
And, again, that brings you back to the importance of gathering as much information as possible on Love between now and May. Which is why, if the Packers wind up suffering a ninth loss, it makes sense to at least start thinking about giving Love a few starts.
From Jose Mourinho Burner Account (@mattress_toppr): Jon Robinson firing . . . whattttttt
Jose, this is a tough one for me to wrap my head around.
The explanation I’ve gotten is Robinson’s firing—for owner Amy Adams Strunk—is similar to the Mike Mularkey dismissal in early 2018, when she decided that just being good wasn’t good enough. Obviously, that move, in which a coach who went 9–7 and 9–7 in his only two years, worked out, with the hire of Mike Vrabel being an undeniable success. The difference there, though, was largely about getting a coach to line up with the then-third-year GM Robinson, with he and Vrabel sharing a New England pedigree.
This does not seem to be that. And if it’s more strictly performance-based, then it’s a little bit of a head-scratcher. Robinson made the playoffs in four of his six seasons as GM and was on his way to a third consecutive AFC South title. He successfully bridged the franchise out of a failed first-round quarterback (Marcus Mariota), finding a suitable short- and long-term answer in Ryan Tannehill. He also drafted franchise cornerstones Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown, Jeffery Simmons and Kevin Byard, and created a real identity on the roster.
Now, he certainly wasn’t perfect. His first four first-round picks—Jack Conklin, Corey Davis, Adoree’ Jackson and Rashaan Evans—all had their fifth-year options declined and were gone after four years. His 2020 first-rounder, Isaiah Wilson, was actually way, way worse. And you could certainly argue he should’ve done more to not let Brown get away and maybe more aggressively pursued a true long-term answer at quarterback.
But on balance, it hardly seems like he was in position to get fired for that. Which certainly makes you wonder whether there’s a little more to the story here.
From Jasson OH (@jassonohio): The Titans just fired GM Jon Robinson. Where do they go from here, and how much say will Vrabel have over the roster and next GM?
Jasson, if I’m Strunk, I’m doing all I can to keep Vrabel happy—because if he were to become available, teams would line up to get him. And because he was a player and made plenty of money on the field, I don’t think it’s a sure thing that he’ll just stick around forever just to stick around forever.
Also, I had it theorized to me by more than one NFL person Tuesday—people who know both guys well—that it’s possible this was just a case of a partnership between two alphas, in Vrabel and Robinson, running its course. There was clear and public disagreement over the Brown trade (my understanding is Robinson and the personnel department had long-term concerns about Brown’s knee). The deal for Julio Jones, in which Vrabel got a player who physically couldn’t practice, rubbed against the culture Vrabel built, too. And there are other examples that, on a surface level, could’ve generated friction between the two.
Now, again, going forward, the first thing I’m doing in searching for a new GM, if I’m Strunk, is getting Vrabel’s long-term vision for the franchise on paper and then finding the guy who lines up best with that, both from a philosophical and personality standpoint.
One name that’s been raised to me is the Titans’ director of player personnel, Monti Ossenfort, who came up in New England, working for the Patriots as a scout when Vrabel was there as a player. The problem, though, is Ossenfort is very close with Robinson, and Strunk already tabbed VP of player personnel Ryan Cowden to lead the department over Ossenfort for the time being. One other thing to file away, as I see it: The football development coordinator there, John “Stretch” Streicher, could wind up with a bigger role.
And, obviously, accounting for all that, there’s a fair amount of uncertainty here. But I think what we do know is Vrabel will have a sizable influence on where things go next.
Dan Powers/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin/USA TODAY NETWORK
From Bearsszn (@bearssznn): Thoughts on Justin Fields & his improvement through this season so far?
Bears, I think it’s fantastic, especially after offensive coordinator Luke Getsy—early in the year—allowed Fields to make more plays with his legs, forcing defenses to play that offense a lot differently. It also opened things up in the passing game, allowing Fields to build confidence and grow.
Now, is the way they’re playing sustainable over years? Probably not. Fields has taken on a massive workload, and he is a more physical runner than Lamar Jackson, who does more to avoid contact and preserve his body. Fields also, while big, isn’t the size of Cam Newton, and he’s had injuries in his past (and now). So, if you’re the Bears, you know playing him this way isn’t a forever thing.
That said, the Chiefs and Bills leveraged the athleticism of Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen early in their careers, and it bought Mahomes and Allen time to develop into quarterbacks who don’t need to run as much anymore to produce. And I think that’s the idea with Fields, who has a great arm, good natural accuracy and the ability to operate from the pocket.
The key, as I see it, will be getting Fields to see the field faster from the pocket, and anticipate his throws more, which are hard areas to develop. But I still buy into him for the same reasons I did when he was coming out of Ohio State. He has just about every physical trait you could possibly want in a quarterback, he’s really smart, and he’s hard-working and tough as nails. I think, eventually, it will all come together for him.
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From Brian Beck (@76Oregonian): Is Tom Telesco on the hot seat? Should he be?
Brian, I don’t think so. The roster there is solid. Telesco gets points for taking Justin Herbert with the sixth pick at a time when there were significant doubts over the then Oregon QB’s ability to translate at the pro level. He’s hit on a bunch of other high picks, too—Rashawn Slater, Mike Williams and Joey Bosa, to name a few.
That said, this is Telesco’s 10th season in charge. He’s on his third coach. His record is 75–82, and he’s made the playoffs just twice.
Right now, the Chargers are 6–6. The Raiders have a first-year coach and endured a really rough start. The Broncos have a first-year coach and have floundered. The Chiefs need a win and just a little help this week to clinch their seventh straight division title, and they’d do it with almost a month left in the season. And when you consider that the Chargers will have to pay Herbert soon, and that’ll change the team-building dynamic, it’s fair to think that ownership could act with some level of urgency if the opportunity here in 2022 fizzles.
So do I think Telesco will get fired? No. Should he get fired? No. But … if the Spanos family acts on that urgency and wants to use Herbert to lure a big-name coach—such as Sean Payton or Jim Harbaugh—you could see where Telesco and second-year coach Brandon Staley, who I still believe has a bright future, could wind up as collateral damage.
Robert Deutsch/USA TODAY Sports
From Stephen Sheehan (@mindbodysteph3n): Does Robert Kraft run things back for another year with Bill Belichick? Or would a losing season result in significant changes in New England?
Stephen, I think the most likely scenario is the Patriots narrowly miss the playoffs, Belichick remains as coach and 2023 shapes up as a critical year for a lot of folks there.
The reason is the Patriots will have a decision to make on Mac Jones’s fifth-year option, and potentially extending him, after that season. Depending on whether he makes a Pro Bowl this year (not happening) or next (and last year’s Pro Bowl doesn’t count because he was an alternate), the call on the option will probably mean guaranteeing somewhere between $25 million and $35 million to Jones for the 2025 season.
If Jones knocks it out of the park next year, then that decision is an easy one, and probably would mean Belichick had righted the offense and, in doing so, retained the right to make his exit from New England a decision that he alone will make, whenever that time comes. But if Jones is up and down, and that decision is either up in the air or a no? Well, then, that would mean Belichick would’ve spent four years whiffing on replacing the greatest quarterback of all time, while that quarterback kept playing and prospering elsewhere.
Now, is there a way all that will get accelerated and we’ll be talking about this in five weeks rather than a year? I don’t think so. But I do know that the visibility of the franchise isn’t irrelevant to the Kraft family. This year, three years post-Brady, the Patriots have been regularly slated for 1 p.m. Sunday games, games that aren’t being called by Jim Nantz and Tony Romo. And with the game against the Raiders flexed out, the franchise won’t appear on a Sunday-night broadcast for the first time since NBC got the package 16 years ago.
So maybe that and the mess of the offensive coaching situation could somehow lead to Kraft delivering an ultimatum on Belichick making wholesale changes to his football operations—and if Kraft does that, all bets, I believe, would be off as to how Belichick would react to it. But if I had to guess, I don’t think we’re there yet.
From Jeff Gold (@JeffGold81): If Zach Wilson was dropped into the 2023 NFL Draft (meaning right now, with all the info about him), where do you think he'd get selected? (He'd start with the standard rookie contract in this hypothetical.)
Jeff, this is a great question, and I’m going to start with some background on it.
All the top quarterbacks in the 2023 draft have questions, and it’s shaping up as a class where it’ll come down to whose flaws you’re comfortable working around. Are you O.K. with Bryce Young’s size deficiency, even though he’s got the best tape of the bunch (and maybe by a good margin)? Do you think Will Levis’s big ’21 campaign was a product of really good coaching, with his return to Earth in ’22, or a sign of his potential? Can CJ Stroud improve in situations where things get messy around him? Are you willing to take on a project, in Anthony Richardson, who has all the tools but hasn’t put it all together yet?
For better or worse, no one has the answers to those questions yet. What we do have is some answers on Wilson, and the troubling thing right now is that some of the questions that exist on his going into the 2021 draft are still there two years later. Scouts wondered then why he so often gave up easy completions to generate scramble situations to hunt big plays. That problem has lingered. And the questions on his leadership traits, given that he wasn’t a captain at BYU, obviously remain, too.
So I don’t think he’ll be the first one taken. And there’s a chance all four of the aforementioned guys will go ahead of him, just because of what could be with them and what we already know on Wilson (and that’s not, by the way, to say he can’t grow … just that it’s less likely that he will get past those issues now that we’ve seen them in an NFL context).
