Daily COVID-19 case numbers are rising again in Tasmania, with the health department confirming the state is in the middle of another wave.
As of Wednesday, southern Tasmanians were being asked to reconsider their need to go to the Royal Hobart Hospital as it escalated its COVID management plan to level two in the wake of a COVID outbreak.
Health department secretary Kathrine Morgan-Wicks said the hospital was seeing an increasing number of COVID patients, as well as more COVID-related staff absences.
More than 2,200 new cases were officially recorded statewide in the Tasmanian government's most recent weekly statistics, with the seven-day case number average having jumped up to 318.
By comparison, just a fortnight ago, for the week ending on November 5, the weekly case numbers were at 1,406, with it acknowledged that community transmission is usually higher than reported figures show.
The health department has confirmed this increase is the marker of a new wave of COVID in Tasmania, but reiterates there is no reason to panic.
So, what should Tasmanians be doing in the face of this new wave?
What will this next wave look like?
Deputy Director of Public Health Julie Graham said it was still unclear when the wave's peak was likely to hit, or how long it might last.
However, she said with case numbers still significantly down on the level of infection experienced during the Omicron wave that gripped the state earlier this year, and with base vaccination levels high, it wasn't expected that "continuing waves" would reach the extent Tasmania has experienced previously.
Despite this, she said, the department was monitoring the situation closely, guided by factors such as such as hospital admissions, recorded test results, aged care outbreaks and the number of COVID-19 treatments being dispensed — to ensure appropriate advice was being provided to the public.
"We're likely to see waves of infection over the coming one to two years [but] it's really hard to actually determine how high the peak of that wave is going to be, or how long the wave's going to last," Dr Graham said.
"And that's why it's incredibly important that people continue — no matter the size, or the length of the peak of the infections — to do the COVID-safe behaviours that we're all very familiar with."
Most important, she said, was ensuring Tasmanians were up-to-date with their vaccinations.
"That's the number one thing that is protecting our population from severe disease and from the risk of hospitalisation or death."
In the most recent weekly surveillance report published by the health department, for the week ending November 12, authorities said the Omicron sub-variant BA.5 and its sub-lineages remain the most commonly detected variant of COVID-19 by whole genome sequencing.
Earlier this month, the department of health confirmed the variants XXB and BQ.1 had also been detected in Tasmania.
'Get boosted'
Vaccination rates in Tasmania have plateaued recently after the community effort to get both primary doses before borders re-opened last December.
While 92 per cent of residents aged 65 and over have had their third dose of the vaccine, that figure drops to 70 per cent for Tasmanians aged 16 and over.
While not mandatory, only just over a third of Tasmanians aged 30 years and over have taken up the opportunity for a fourth dose.
"So if you haven't had your primary course, or you're not up to date with your boosters, this is certainly the time to get out and get that vaccine," Dr Graham said.
Transmission is currently rated as low — what would higher levels look like?
In the weekly wrap-up of statistics, the state government has described the current risk of COVID-19 in the community as "low to moderate".
Dr Graham said while reported case numbers weren't the only things taken into account when determining the community transmission risk, reaching a "moderate" level of transmission would possibly look like more than 400 reported cases a day — with it also relevant where this spread was occurring.
She said it was unlikely that Tasmania would reach a stage where mandates or restrictions would have to be reintroduced over the course of coming waves, with the community well-educated on ways to reduce the spread of COVID-19 — such as getting vaccinated, staying at home if you're sick, and wearing a mask indoors when socially distancing isn't an option.
The deputy director said it was a similar situation for case management facilities, which were closed in the north and north-west of the state in August due to a lack of demand.
The Hobart case management facility is still operational.
Dr Graham said that continued to be the case, with high vaccination rates, the availability of antiviral medications and the support that community members can receive through COVID@Homeplus or the primary care care systems meaning the facilities weren't necessary.
"Obviously we continue to monitor the system and there is urgent emergency accommodation available, but at this stage there isn't a need for those community case management facilities," Dr Graham said.
Common sense urged over festive season
John Saul, president of the Australian Medical Association Tasmania, said the increase in COVID cases in the community was notable — and has come with a rise in anxiousness and apprehension from pockets of the community.
However, he said complacency was still also a challenge, echoing Dr Graham's message to get your booster if you were eligible.
"At this stage, we're expecting this wave to increase, especially with more movement and tourism over summer, over Christmas, and as a result we may well need to be very careful, with masks and social distancing," Dr Saul said.
"Obviously this virus can mutate really quickly; we've seen that over time. It has gotten better in ways, but it could also substantially get worse within a couple of weeks."
He said being sensible with social gatherings now and around the festive season was also important.
"There's no need to panic, there's no need to worry — but there's plenty of reasons to show common sense and look after your friends and your family," Dr Saul said.
"Don't be a super spreader. If you're crook, it's more important you isolate rather than you go to that family function.
"If we can get our [boosters] up, and be careful in confined spaces and socially distance or wear a mask where we can, we reduce the spread of COVID and the impact of this on our communities."
For more information on testing, vaccinations and current restrictions visit the Tasmanian government coronavirus website.
