MONTREAL — Quebec's COVID-19 hospitalizations have been dropping, but that trend could change in the next few weeks as restrictions are eased in the province, the province's interim public health director said Wednesday.
Dr. Luc Boileau said that the overall outlook remains "optimistic" but that there are reasons for caution, including a slight rise in the number of children under 12 testing positive for COVID-19 in the province's emergency rooms.
"We shouldn't be unduly worried, or much less panic for the moment, but it's entirely plausible that lifting measures last week, along with those that were announced yesterday, will result in more contagion, notably with the risk of seeing more hospitalizations," Boileau told a news conference in Montreal.
Boileau said the next two to three weeks will be "pivotal" to determine the course of the pandemic, and he urged people to seek their COVID-19 booster doses and be diligent in mask wearing.
He expressed hope that the province would not have to delay its plans to gradually ease restrictions, citing the need to balance protecting hospitals with "the need for people to progressively return to a normal life."
Quebec allowed small private gatherings to resume and dining rooms to reopen at 50 per cent capacity on Monday and will allow cultural venues, sports, gyms and spas to reopen over the next two weeks.
The Health Department said COVID-19 related hospitalizations in the province dropped by 122, to 2,730 on Wednesday, after 328 people left hospital and 206 were admitted. There were also 50 new deaths.
The drop in hospitalizations is expected to continue over the next two weeks, according to new projections from a government health research institute. Michèle de Guise, the president of the Institut national d'excellence en santé et en services sociaux, told the news conference that new hospitalizations are expected to drop progressively to reach about 100 per day in mid-February.
But further out, the picture begins to look murkier, according to a different set of projections.
Éric Litvak, who works for another government health institute, the Institut national de santé publique du Québec, said COVID-19 transmission in the province appears to be dropping more slowly than in previous weeks and could begin to rise again as restrictions are eased.
He said that under an "optimistic" scenario — one in which contacts between people increase only modestly — a small bump in new cases could lead to a brief, slight rise in hospitalizations and deaths later this month. A more pessimistic scenario would see hospitalizations and deaths rise "substantially" in February, though remaining below the peak reached in January.
He said the outcome could be determined by how carefully people limit contacts and adhere to health measures, as well as how many people in Quebec have developed immunity to the virus through infection or vaccination.
"Unfortunately, the Omicron wave isn’t yet done," he said.
Throughout the news conference, Boileau urged the population to seek their COVID-19 booster shots in order to prevent a new rise in hospitalizations and ensure Quebec can continue to lift health measures.
Quebec in recent weeks has also targeted citizens who have yet to receive their first dose through both outreach programs and more coercive measures, including requiring proof of vaccination to enter liquor and cannabis stores. On Tuesday, Premier François Legault scrapped a plan to make the unvaccinated pay a financial penalty, saying the measure would be too divisive.
Boileau said the government is now favouring a "positive" approach to vaccination, though he believes the tougher measures had some effect. He said about 20,000 adults sought out first doses in the last few weeks, bringing the number of unvaccinated people down to about 527,000.
The government is still considering whether to expand the use of the vaccine passport and may eventually require people to get three doses to be considered fully vaccinated, he said.
The update comes as authorities in Quebec City are bracing for protests against the province’s COVID-19 health measures planned for this weekend. Groups have said on social media that a convoy of protesters, inspired by those who have blocked streets in Ottawa, could descend on the provincial capital on Saturday, just as the city's winter Carnaval gets underway.
Quebec City Mayor Bruno Marchand has said the protesters have a right to express their opinion, but he is urging them to show respect for citizens and local businesses.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Feb. 2, 2022.
Morgan Lowrie, The Canadian Press
