SportsCasting’s Andy Newton highlights his horse racing predictions for the best of the ITV Racing action this Saturday (23rd November) – with top National Hunt cards coming from Ascot, Haydock and Punchestown in Ireland.
Punchestown has also survived a morning inspection, so all systems go for their star-studded meeting that also features Ballyburn over fence for the first time (12:30pm).
Horse Racing Predictions at Ascot: Pic D’Orhy Bids For Repeat 1965 Chase Success
1:30 Ascot: CopytBet 1965 Chase (Grade 2) (GBB Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m5f ITV
Favourite backers and horse racing acca punters will be all over PIC D’ORHY here and it’s not hard to see why.
This Paul Nicholls-trained 9 year-old landed this race with ease 12 months ago and with his main rival Djelo not entered on Thursday his task looks even easier this time.
A horse that is not suited to Cheltenham, so these Ascot races are his Gold Cup so to speak and with form figures at the track reading 1-2-1-1 it’s hard to find holes in him.
The old boy Dashel Drasher looks the most likely to follow Pic D’ Orhy home, who also had a wind op over the summer.
2:45 Ascot: Ascot Hurdle (Grade 2) (Registered As The Ascot Hurdle) (GBB Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m3½f ITV
Just the six runners but cases can be made for the lot.
We’ve got another winner from last year in Blueking d’Oroux running and he looks to hold every chance of going in again. The only niggle is that he was getting weight 12 months ago, and this year the roles are reversed having to give weight way all-round.
Triumph Hurdle third Salver looks the value if tuned up for his return run – especially if a bit more rain comes.
However, it’s hard to get away from GOLDEN ACE, who is unbeaten from her four starts over hurdles.
She lowered the colours of Brighterdaysahead in the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival and backed that up with another win at Prestbury Park – with the second (Ohh Betty) and third (Wyenot) having franked the form since.
This Jeremy Scott runner looks worth sticking with until the bubble bursts – which is hopefully not on Saturday.
Horse Racing Predictions at Haydock: Royale Pagaille Will Be Hoping For Rain Ahead Of Betfair Chase Defence
1:50 Haydock: Betfair Exchange Graduation Chase (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m5½f ITV
2023 Cheltenham Festival winner Iroko is the one to beat here – rated 152 and 8lbs clear of the rest.
But, for me, he’s got a tad to prove still after only average runs in the Turners (5th) and Mildmay Novices (2nd) last season. While the form of the Greenall/Guerriero yard is a small worry (4-34). He looks the most obvious winner – but no value at all.
Trelawne is a nice chaser in the making for Kim Bailey, but needs to bounce back from a fall in the Ultima Chase last March.
He’s closely-matched with Tahmuras and with the Nicholls yard having a top record in the race (7 from 10) he’s sure to be popular. The worry, for me, with him is that he hasn’t seemed to be totally ‘putting it all in’ in the closing stages.
It’s nice to see Hillcrest back after 981 days off but it would be a big ask off that lay-off.
So, the horse racing prediction here is the Dan Skelton entry DEAFENING SILENCE (e/w).
Yes, a chance is taken on his jumping – as this will be his first time over fences. However, he showed a good level of form over hurdles last season and it’s interesting the Skelton’s are pitching him into a race like this first time.
The form of his win at Exeter last November looks solid too – with ALL the horses in behind having come out and won a race since.
2:30 Haydock: Betfair Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 3m½f ITV
DOYEN QUEST did me a favour last weekend and I have to stay loyal – back just seven days after winning at Cheltenham.
This Skelton runner travelled well that day under Harry and showed a good turn-of-foot to win by an easy 5 lengths at the line. Is up just 5lb for that and providing this doesn’t come too soon looks worth sticking with.
However, the rain is a slight worry.
Skelton also runs Catch Him Derry and Gwennie May Boy, who are interesting too.
While if the rain comes in bucket loads, then Backmersackme is worth a saver for the Emmet Mullins yard that won this 12 months ago.
3:05 Haydock: Betfair Chase (Grade 1) (Registered As The Lancashire Chase) (GBB Race) Cl1 (5yo+) 3m1½f ITV
A top renewal of the Betfair Chase, which was first run in 2005. I think with 9 runners, it’s a record-equalling field size.
Grey Dawning will be popular after winning the Turners Novices’ Chase at the Festival last season. But I’m not sure about him first time out – having needed a run last season, while I still think this good-looking grey has a small bit to prove to justify some of the lofty comments he’s been getting.
Ahoy Senor and 2022 King George winner Bravemansgame can’t be ruled out on their best form – but just don’t win enough for me.
Another King George winner Hewick, who won the Kempton Boxing Day race last season, looks the value if the rain stays away. His recent run (2nd) to Envoi Allen in Ireland was rock solid and the long Haydock straight will suit him perfectly.
However, the Betfair Chase has been a good race for repeat winners – we’ve seen Kauto Star, Silviniaco Conti, Cue Card and Bristol De Mai all win the race more than once.
And I think we’ll see another in ROYALE PAGAILLE, who won the pot 12 months ago. Especially as the rain has come in time.
He’s a much better horses here at Haydock than anywhere else – with 1-1-2-1-1 form figures here. If the Cheltenham Gold Cup was run at Haydock on soft ground – he’d certainly have his backers – that’s for sure.
He’ll have had this as one of his main season targets again and can be expected to be fully wound up.
All he needs is rain, rain rain. If it does come – then don’t be shocked to see his price with the best horse racing betting sites in the UK get much shorter.
Listen/Watch Andy Newton On The Final Furlong Podcast
SportsCasting’s Andy Newton joined Final Furlong Podcast host Emmet Kennedy and pro punter Peter Michael to cover the best of the horse racing action from Haydock, Ascot and Punchestown this weekend.
Horse Racing Predictions at Punchestown: State Man and Lossiemouth Clash In Unmissable Morgiana Hurdle
2:10 Punchestown: Morgiana Hurdle (Grade 1) (4yo+) 2m 1/2f ITV
Ballyburn is back and running over fences for the first time at Punchestown on Saturday (12:30), but the Morgiana Hurdle is the big highlight.
A few days ago, it just looked like being another State Man long odds-on walkover, but fair play to Willie Mullins, who was also trying to run his other Champion Hurdle big gun in Lossiemouth.
While hats off to Gordon Elliott too for ‘testing the water’ at the top table with his exciting mare Brighterdaysahead.
However, it’s now come to light that LOSSIEMOUTH is now a NON-RUNNER, which has paved the way for STATE MAN to mop this race up.
Yes, Brighterdaysahead will still have her backers getting 7lbs – but she’s taking on one of the best around in this division and so it will be a big ask for such an inexperiened horse.
In short, it will be a huge shock if State Man isn’t landing his third Morgiana here.
Also get regular horse racing picks each day from leading industry expert Andrew Mount.
