It’s day one of the November Meeting at Prestbury Park this Friday and to help point you in the direction of a few winners, see below Andy Newton’s Cheltenham picks and trends – with four of the six races also being covered live on ITV Racing.
Jonbon The Star Attraction At Day One Of The Cheltenham November Meeting
Let’s be honest day one of the Cheltenham November Meeting has had better cards over the years, but the Nicky Henderson-trained Jonbon running has at least saved it from being a complete disaster.
The only downside is that Jonbon, who runs in the Shloer Chase at 2:20pm, is going to be sent off at long odds-on with the best horse racing betting sites in the UK – so isn’t great wager material.
Jonbon also has history in the Shloer Chase – having won the 2023 renewal (watch below) when slamming Edwardstone by 9 1/2 lengths.
He takes on that same rival again on Friday, plus just two others in Boothill and Unexpected Party.
However, being rated a full 6lbs higher than Edwardstone, 12lbs higher than Boothill and a massive 24lb more than Unexpected Party – it should be plain sailing for this talented 8 year-old chaser who is yet to finish out of the first two from his 17 career starts (14 wins).
At the short odds, the layers can expect to see Jonbon featuring in a bundle of doubles, trebles an accas during the card.
Cheltenham Picks, Form Guide and Trends For All Six Races: Friday 15th November 2024
See below as we guide you though the Friday races at the Cheltenham November Meeting – plus adds in some key trends for the main ITV4 races.
You can also watch SportsCasting’s Andy Newton on this week’s Final Furlong podcast – previewing the best of the weekend horse racing.
1:10 – Lycetts Insurance Brokers Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle (Challenger Stayers Hurdle Qual’) Cl3 (3yo+ 0-125) 2m5f RTV
A tough ask for punters in the opening race at the 2024 Cheltenham November Meeting – with 18 runners in a conditional jockeys’ race.
The unbeaten pair of Double Powerful and Plaisir Des Flos will draw the eye of many and the Fergal O’Brien yard, who trained the last-named, won this in 2021.
It’s also been a good race for the David Pipe camp over the years with wins in 2019 and also 12 months ago when American Sniper won, who goes again and is back off just a 5lb higher mark. Plus, they also run Phantomofthepoints.
However, the Cheltenham picks here suggest the Tony Martin runner Young Lucy and the Jonjo O’Neill-trained Stay If You Want To are worth chancing – with both stables going great guns at the moment.
YOUNG LUCY will be fit from a recent run on the flat at Navan, while STAY IF YOU WANT TO returned with a solid second at Wincanton last month but has a 10lb claimer in his time.
1:45 – Mucking Brilliant Paddy Power Novices’ Chase (Listed Race) (GBB Race) Cl1 (5yo+) 3m½f ITV4
Just the four runners here and the betting with the best betting sites in the UK suggest they’ve all got a chance.
Course winners Hyland and Buddy One have that experience as a big plus and have to be respected. While the in-form Resplendent Grey is heading here on a three-timer after tidy wins at Uttoxeter.
That said, it was hard to not be impressed with SPRINGWELL BAY last time when winning at Chepstow on his chase debut. The form of that run has also since been boosted with the third Boombawn winning at Wincanton and I’ve already mentioned the good form of the Jonjo O’Neill yard at present.
This 7 year-old was also a winner at this meeting 12 months ago, so we know the track suits.
Key Paddy Power Novices’ Chase Trends
- 10/10 – Aged between 5-8
- 10/10 – Raced at Cheltenham before (hurdles/chase)
- 9/10 – Raced over hurdles at Cheltenham before
- 8/10 – Priced 11/2 or shorter
- 8/10 – Favourites placed in the top 2
- 8/10 – Won between 0-1 times over fences
- 7/10 – Ran in the last 3 weeks
- 6/10 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
- 6/10 – Irish bred
- 5/10 – Favourites
- 5/10 – Aged 6 years-old
2:20 – Shloer Chase (Registered As The Cheltenham Chase) (Grade 2) (GBB Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m ITV4
Another small field here, but the 2024 renewal of the Shloer Chase looks JONBON’s to lose.
Rated 170, he’s clear of the rest and at still only 8 years-old could still have more to come as a chaser this season. As mentioned in the intro, he also took this prize last year and the horse racing form guide points to him winning for a tenth time over fences.
Just like last year, the 10 year-old Edwardstone looks the most obvious call to follow Jonbon home.
Key Shloer Chase Trends
- 14/15 – Priced 4/1 or shorter in the betting
- 14/15 – Officially rated 150+
- 13/15 – Won on seasonal reappearance
- 12/15 – Won over fences at Cheltenham
- 11/15 – Favourites that finished 1st or 2nd
- 11/15 – Won at least 4 times over fences
- 10/15 – Aged 7 or older
- 10/15 – Went onto run in the Champion Chase (2 winners, Put The Kettle On (2021), Sprinter Sacre 2015)
- 9/15 – Didn’t win last time out
- 8/15 – Favourites
- 6/15 – Won by a horse aged 8 or older
- 5/15 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
- 3/15 – German bred
- 3/15 – Ran at Aintree last time out
- Jonbon won the race in 2023
2:55 – Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Cl2 (5yo+) 3m5½f ITV4
Love it, or hate it, the Cross Country races at Cheltenham are always a spectacle – no one can disagree with that.
Course form over these unique fences is always a plus and backed up in the trends below – with 14 of the last 20 winners having experienced them before. This would be a negative for the Gordon Elliott runner Conflated, who is having his first try over this course – but, on a plus, is the class act in the field and comes from a yard that loves these XCountry events.
Back On The Lash looks interesting at a big price – mainly due to being a two-time winner of this race. Yes, he’s lost his way a bit recently, but the return to these fences might spark him back to life. The negative though is that with the 166-rated Conflated in the race he’s running from 18lb out of the handicap, which would be a big ask.
In fact, six horses are out of the weights too – Mister Coffey, Slipway, Statuario, Fameafterglory, Sweet David and the already mentioned Back On The Lash.
TOMMIE BEAU is consistent and is taking to the fences could be interesting – we know he stays and he’s one for the Cheltenham picks off a featherweight.
However, it’s still hard to get away from CONFLATED. Yes, carrying 12st and giving a lot of weight away will be hard, but jockey R James helps by taking off 7lbs.
He’ll be better for his recent Charlie Hall Chase run and despite not winning a race since winning the G1 Savills in Dec 2022, his trainer is a master and switching his classier chaser to the XCountry and he could be another.
Key Cross Country Handicap Chase Trends
- 20/20 – Ran at Cheltenham before
- 17/20 – Won by a horse aged 9 or older
- 16/20 – Either Irish (10) or French (6) bred
- 14/20 – Won at least 5 times over fences
- 14/20 – Ran over this Cross County course previously (9 won)
- 14/20 – Unplaced last time out
- 14/20 – Priced 6/1 or shorter
- 14/20 – Had a recent run that season
- 13/20 – From top 3 in the betting
- 13/20 – Favourites placed
- 11/20 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
- 10/20 – Carried 11-5 or more in weight
- 7/20 – Favourites (5 of the last 11)
- 8 of the last 11 winners carried 11-2 or less in weight
- 8 of the last 11 winners aged 8 or older
- The last 8 winners carried between 10st – 10st 12lbs
- 4 of the last 11 runnings won by a previous winner
- Martin Keighley and Sean Bowen have teamed up to win 2 of the last 3
- Back On The Lash won the race in 2021 and 2023
3:30 – Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) (Registered As The Hyde Novices’ Hurdle) (GBB Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m5f ITV4
Six runners here, but really this looks a bit of a shootout between the Dan Skelton runner Valgrand and the Nigel Twiston-Davies entry Potters Charm.
Both were solid winners last time out here at Cheltenham and there is just a pound between them on the ratings.
It’s one of those races where you can make cases for both. Potters Charm has more winning form over 2m4f so this longer 2m5f trip is sure to suit.
However, it was hard to not be impressed with the way VALGRAND saw off a fair sort in Gale Mahler last time over 2m 1/2f at the Showcase Meeting. Connections must feel he’s up to the longer 2m 5f trip but has also won over 2m 3 1/2f in the past to suggest it’s within range.
Key Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle Trends
- 19/19 –Ran in the last 5 weeks
- 18/19 – Returned 10/1 or shorter
- 17/19 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
- 14/19 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
- 14/19 – Had won a NH Flat race earlier in their career
- 14/19 – Aged 5 years-old
- 13/19 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival that season (2 winners)
- 13/19 – Ran at Uttoxeter (4), Chepstow (6) or Cheltenham (3) last time out
- 13/19 – Won over 2 ½m (or further) over hurdles before
- 12/19 – Won last time out
- 11/19 – Won just once before (under rules)
- 6/19 – Ran at Cheltenham before
- 4/19 – Favourites
- 2/19 – Went onto win a race at the Cheltenham Festival that season
4:05 – Valda Energy Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl3 (3yo+ 0-125) 2m½f RTV
A tough ‘getting out stakes’ with 16 runners here – so unless you are desperate for a Cheltenham pick, it might be better to head to the bar if at Chelts, or just leave alone.
If you are wanting a wager then the form of the Jamie Snowden, Henry De Bromhead, Paul Nicholls, Jonjo O’Neill and James Owen yards are all very good at the moment. Anything this bunch run should be respected.
