A week after betting on Michigan State would take a leap of faith, the tables have turned and the Spartans are a big public favorite, which isn’t always the best thing.
Michigan State is currently favored by 14.5 points over Arizona State according to BetMGM. The line opened at -11 so we’ve seen big movement on this one throughout the week. The game total is currently set at 42.5 so that gives us an implied score of 28.5 to 14. Those are actually pretty clean implied totals as it essentially works out to MSU scoring 4 TDs to Arizona State’s 2, plus the hook.
(NOTE: “The hook” is a gambling term that refers to that extra .5 point which many times can swing a bet. Here, Arizona State has the hook because MSU needs to beat them by essentially three common scores.)
From my view I think it’ll be tough for both of these teams to hit their implied totals. Arizona State has really struggled on offense and is starting a true freshman QB in his first road game behind a shaky offensive line. That’s not a recipe for many points. Michigan State is still unproven on offense and Arizona State has the no. 7 ranked SP+ defense through two games. Four touchdowns could be tough for the Spartans.
My early lean on this game was MSU by 13 or so. I was able to lock in MSU at -10.5 early in the week before the line jumped and I’m glad I did so. Now that it’s at 14.5, that puts us at a real inflection point because of the aforementioned hook.
The public LOVES Michigan State in this one. The Spartans are currently garnering 79% of bets to ASU’s 21%. That’s a huge margin and explains that massive rise in the spread to some extent. Big public favorites are a common place for professional gamblers to exploit. The public is heavily influenced by recency bias and media coverage so they look at MSU crushing Western Michigan and ASU struggling against FCS Sacramento State and think this game is easy pickin’ . . . not so.
It’s tough to get a read where the sharps (professionals) are on this one, but I’m guessing we’ll see some big, late money come in on Arizona State on Saturday. That’s something to watch as we near game time: Does the spread drop back towards Arizona State? If it does that means some sharp money likes ASU plus the points.
The way this line has jumped leaves me to believe that some early sharp money got on MSU at -11 or -10.5. We could end up with a scenario where there is sharp money on MSU -11 AND on ASU +14.5. That makes me nervous about picking this game, because there wouldn’t be a consensus. BUT, I think it’s completely reasonable this game falls within the 10-14 point margin. MSU 27 – ASU 17, MSU 24 – ASU 13, MSU 28 – ASU 17, are all reasonable final scores to this game.
I don’t think there’s a massive advantage right now and which side to pick probably depends on when you got in on the game. If you got in at MSU -11 you can probably feel decent about that line. If you want to bet this game and haven’t yet, it might behoove you to jump on ASU +14.5.
I’m glad I got my pick locked in early with MSU -10.5, but had I not, I’d probably wait until tomorrow to see what the movement looked like early in the day to make a pick. It’s also important to look at the line late Friday night because the limits at sports books across the country get higher later in the day. Some big money bets on this game will almost certainly come in on Friday night as the professionals make their picks, which could move the line significantly.
It’s worth noting ASU covered the spread and won outright the last time these two played and the total went well under.
PICK: If you got MSU -11, that’s solid, but at 14.5 I’m going with Arizona State.
