Oil and gasoline prices have distinct seasonal patterns, up after the first of the year up until some time in the summer.
The big questions for this year are:
- How high will crude oil prices go?
- Will gasoline prices hit startling levels?
After peaking and sliding into the end of the year, what happens next might be more painful than you expect.
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Will crude oil prices eclipse $80 again?
Analysts at Australian-New Zealand banking company ANZ think Brent crude, the global benchmark, could hit $85 per 42-gallon barrel in the short term and maybe $90 by year-end.
That would translate into $80 for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil in the short run and $85 by year end. WTI is the U.S. benchmark and is currently priced lower, by roughly $5 a barrel
Related: Analyst who correctly predicted crude oil’s rally has a new forecast
WTI at $80 a barrel means U.S. retail gasoline prices nationally might hit $4 a gallon again at the summer oil-price peak.
The prices on Thursday for these were:
- Regular gasoline: $3.28 a gallon nationally, according to The American Automobile Association, and $3.29 according to GasBuddy.com.
- WTI at $77.59 a gallon, up 8.3% year-to-date.
- Brent at $82.86 a gallon, up 8.6% year-to-date.
Nonetheless, while predicting higher prices, ANZ thinks there is enough global supply and, more importantly, excess supply among the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries members to minimize the chances of a serious global price shock.
Plus, driving patterns fall off in the fall as the weather worsens and vacation traveling ends.
A very aggressive outlook for crude oil prices
Analysts at British banking giant Standard Chartered have a very different outlook. They see Brent averaging $92 a barrel in the first quarter. That would mean a 19% jump from Dec. 31.
Again, subtract $5 for a WTI estimate.
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Standard Chartered is only getting started. Here are the bank's Brent estimates for the rest of the year, according to Rigzone.com.
- Second quarter: $94 a barrel.
- Third quarter: $98 a barrel.
- Fourth Quarter: $96 a barrel.
Then, prices keep rising to an average $109 in 2025, $128 in 2026 and, finally, $115 in 2027.
This scenario mirrors some in the energy industry who believe global surpluses will start to dissipate after 2024.
A different look at the numbers
The Standard Chartered view may be the outlier.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration, in a Feb. 6 report, projected Brent to average $82.42 in 2024 and $79.48 in 2025.
WTI will average 77.68 a barrel for 2024 and $74.98 in 2025, the EIA estimated.
Keep this in mind: When prices peak, they can be variable. In 2022, prices peaked in June at $122.11 on WTI and $5.016 a gallon on gasoline.
That was just before JPMorgan analysts argued crude oil could run up to $380 a barrel if Russia retaliated with crude oil supply cuts in response to European sanctions against its invasion of Ukraine.
Crude oil: a most political of commodities
Crude oil markets and, obviously, gasoline markets are strongly influenced by politics and geopolitics and economics. Crude oil supplies can expand because of new discoveries or development of more efficient drilling technologies.
Wars, such as the Ukraine-Russia or the attacks on oil tankers in the Red Sea by Houthi rebels, can constrict supply.
So, crude oil and gasoline prices are notoriously difficult to project.
West Texas Intermediate, for example, surged in 2008. Goldman Sachs said a worst-case scenario could put WTI at $200. The price peaked at $126.68 on June 2008 and slumped to $80.26 at the end of the year, as shale oil production was expanding rapidly in the United States.
Political and geopolitical forces affect supply, sometimes in surprising ways.
This is especially true among OPEC member states and their allies, including Russia and Brazil. The cartel will announce production cuts to boost prices, and then OPEC members and their allies cut no more than 50% of the agreed-upon amount.
Demand has a big role to play. If prices shoot up, people drive less, buy smaller vehicles, or switch to electric cars like Tesla's lineup.
In addition, OPEC output cuts are no longer made in a vacuum. U.S. oil output has made up any shortfall thanks to shale oil production, reaching a record in 2023.
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